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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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With the look of the OP Euro, the EPS is going to be all over Florida in theory in regards to track.
 
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Meteorologist1999 said:
ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_8.png

I can now say this have Hurricane Hugo name written all over, just look at the 500mb setup Wow!! This is one to keep an EYE on!!
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Yes! I survived that one and remember it well! The strong high gave it no escape route and forced it right into SC!
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
So that would mean it would be a strengthening Hurricane? Right Chris
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If it avoids the larger land masses/mountains... it could make a run to a stronger Cat 4 and God Forbid, a Cat 5 as it approaches. It's 938MB by hour 216.
 
Florida Keys = Kaput. Slight weakening, but nothing to write home about as it heads to the Gulf.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
So that would mean it would be a strengthening Hurricane? Right Chris
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If this track were to verify, some disruption could occur over /near island land masses, then it gets into bath water, RI before hitting or just brushing S Florida? The great Labor Day hurricane, was that the keys?
 
Whew, close one for Key West. Of course, they would be feeling big waves/surge one would assume.
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Storm5 said:
Not with that massive ridge parked off the east coast

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Yeah that has somewhere between Pensacola and New Orleans written all over it.... verbatim that run of course
 
Ryan Maue has started real time EPS spaghetti modeling for subscribers.

 
Not sure you could thread the needle any better than what the Euro shows.
 
Based on the 12Z EPS mean hours 228+, I'm afraid it is going to show a number of hits on FL, further up the SE US coast, and in the E GOM for a week from SAT night through a week from Tue.

In deference to the Euro, I'm raising the CONUS hit % chance in my mind from 15% to 25%.

***Edit: a week from Sat night through Tue.
 
EPS certainly has some ots solutions but most are a legitimate US threat but overall little more north than the Op run
 
Yeah with the massive trough taking a huge bite out of the ridge a gulf track seems unlikely.


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That eps run was a NE shift . Remember the gefs favors OTS at the moment . So out to sea or staying just offshore has just as much a chance as a hit at the moment

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BHS1975 said:
Yeah with the massive trough taking a huge bite out of the ridge a gulf track seems unlikely.


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No track is likely or unlikely at this point . We dont even know how strong the trough will be , the ridge placement in the Atlantic ( see the gfs and euro , worlds apart)

Gonna be days before we can rule out track directions

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