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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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GFS ramping Irma up much quicker this run

gfs_mslp_wind_atltropics_17.png
 
Storm #2 of 1915 was like the 1947 storm N of 14N (14.1N) at 30W and it also made it to the CONUS (TX):

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1915/2/track.gif

Storm #6 of 1938, which was at 14.7N, 30W, also hit the CONUS (big one that hit NE US):

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1938/6/track.gif

Gloria of 1985, which grazed NC and then hit the NE US, was also at 14.7N, 30W:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/GLORIA/track.gif

Fran of 1996 was at 14.1N, 30W:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1996/FRAN/track.gif

All of these, including 1893 and 1947, hit the US as a major except for Gloria.
 
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I think GFS still goes ots but it may get a little closer this run, the atlantic ridge looks a tad more west and the trough a little slower
 
metwannabe said:
Should make for a heckuva collision off the EC right...

e057b2c9fe1b1793d49108e653481df4.gif


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Almost but not quite, Irma gets sucked up between the ridge and trough. Still a long ways out. Also, it's going to depend on the wave that may come about next week in the GOM.

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BHS1975 said:
Euro has a cut off low which would pull it in.


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You know speaking of that, to me, the GFS this run was much deeper with the trough and looked as if it tried to cutoff almost trended towards the Euro.... that's something to watch in the coming days no doubt

6z GFS

gfs_z500aNorm_us_35.png


12z GFS
gfs_z500aNorm_us_34.png


0z Euro

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_10.png
 
Euro speeding things up a little and possibly threatening the Islands Tuesday.... also its moving due west at this hour
ecmwf_mslpa_atl_7.png
 
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