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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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This storm is getting itself together in a hurry. Scary to think where this one will head.


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If you think about it, Irma is quite small at the moment, so it was able to get together quickly. It does sort of remind me of Ike, where it blew up out of nowhere fast. If it stays small for the next day or two, it can really ramp up. However, I expert Irma to grow in size, weaken some, then strengthen again.
 
Scary that it's a cat 2 now and has a lot of open water to work with.
 
Uhhh... that's not good.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">As <a href="https://twitter.com/EricBlake12">@EricBlake12</a> mentioned in the 11am NHC discussion, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Irma?src=hash">#Irma</a> so far has verified stronger and farther south than short-term model forecasts: <a href="https://t.co/C2t33ZCqVX">pic.twitter.com/C2t33ZCqVX</a></p>&mdash; Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) <a href="">August 31, 2017</a></blockquote>
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12z GFS adjusting slightly south this run
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_19.png
 
One notable difference with the 12z GFS versus 6z is it's not as pronounced with the other TC in the GOM, it doesn't really do much with it.

EDIT: There's also another tropical system behind Irma well to the SE of it.

gfs_z500a_atl_28.png
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
One Question to everyone, Which models tends to do the best in 500 Mb Setups and with the WAR???
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I'm not sure what you mean by "WAR" but 500mb setup is usually handled well by the Euro. With that said, all models have their weaknesses in certain setups, and it's never a sure thing. Off 500mb alone, I'd always put money on Euro though.
 
Shawn said:
I'm not sure what you mean by "WAR" but 500mb setup is usually handled well by the Euro. With that said, all models have their weaknesses in certain setups, and it's never a sure thing. Off 500mb alone, I'd always put money on Euro though.
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I think it's an acronym for Western Atlantic Ridge.
 
GFS has been all over the place handling the 500mb set up.... it continues to show that ULL but differing times, locations, etc. CMC very Euro'ish this run so let's see if the Euro continues it's persistent track or bends one way or the other. Long, long..... long way to go with this one and OTS is still a possibility.
 
We will have to see if the good DR sticks to its guns here in a bit, on the more Southerly track?
 
Hope the GFS is right, but it seems on its own right now with it going out to sea with Irma.
 
I have a feeling this storm with go ots but will be coming through the Bahamas just would make a hard turn before approaching the US!!
 
Storm5 said:
Fwiw the 12z cmc appears to be heading NE at he end of its run

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Yeah for me the next 3-5 days are critical, just how strong is the atlantic ridge and are the islands staring down the barrel of an approaching hurricane Monday into Tuesday, if so Euro wins and we're in trouble but ots is fortunately still a very good possibility imo
 
Well, if nothing else this is getting us ready for the model watching in winter.
 
12z GFS has the trough dissipating as Irma is moving towards the EC. With that being said, the track of what the GFS is putting for Irma is off. Also, with the trough dissipating, this is opening the doors for Irma to hit anywhere from the SE to the north.
19de1d9ea148dc0e363261a81cdc39c8.gif


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Not going to dignify it with maps and pictures yet, but JB is hyping the next 2 weeks in our collective neck of the woods.
 
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