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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Arcc said:
It's almost like we've switched back to pre-2007.
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Well we had a hurricane less US streak in the early 2000s and then 2003/2004/2005 happened

So who knows. We've come close the last 2 years with Joaquin and Matthew and now with Harvey actually doing it, could be a new chapter
 
GFS going with a major fish hurricane again, only threatening Bermuda really

Very impressive pressures, 204 hours 914 mb
 
gfs_z500_mslp_atl_41.png
 
I'm keeping odds of about 15% of hitting some part of the Conus since no more than that percentage has hit the US. So, 85% chance of recurve e of the US, dissipation, or hitting MX or Central America with most of that recurve. The only reason I don't have it in the 5%-10% range is the projected WSW bend.
 
Once you get rid of these insane pressures and tone it down to something realistic, a more southern pass could be much more likely. Trough is moving out quicker and quicker it seems
 
Also remember that the GFS also has an east by us when it comes to dealing with troughs and ridges. Just like the euro has a west by us with the same set up
 
I noticed the ridging in the Central Atlantic was breaking down at the same time as the trough was retreating back into SE Canada. Was that a result of the trough itself or was it just a coincidence? After the trough retreats, the ridging rebuilds back in behind Irma.

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Quite the battle setting up between the euro and gfs over the hemispheric h5 pattern and that has significant impacts on the future track. The euro/eps are much farther SW with the atlantic ridge which allows the w to wsw motion to continue to the islands.

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Brent said:
Major hurricane in 4 days forecast already and they say that could be conservative :eek:
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Yep. She's up to 65 too, 999mb.

INIT 31/0300Z 16.4N 32.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 16.8N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.3N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.7N 37.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.0N 39.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 17.6N 44.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 16.8N 49.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 16.2N 53.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
 
Arcc said:
Two things,

One, those are massive hurricanes area wise.

Two, how many of them go off the scale pressure wise....
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Yeah, that map definitely has been raising my interest the last day or two and how consistent it's been too, also the strongest GFS ensemble members are huge hurricanes in the same area off FL-SC

Long way to go but the UKMET is with the Euro on the more threatening track, and the GFS 2-3 days ago had some runs not even showing a storm...

That trough progged late next week better be legit or this one will be problematic I bet
 
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Brent said:
Yeah, that map definitely has been raising my interest the last day or two and how consistent it's been too, also the strongest GFS ensemble members are huge hurricanes in the same area off FL-SC

Long way to go but the UKMET is with the Euro on the more threatening track, and the GFS 2-3 days ago had some runs not even showing a storm...

That trough progged late next week better be legit or this one will be problematic I bet
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Yeah the GFS was second only to the CMC as they battled for worst place on Harvey.
 
ForsythSnow said:
GFS already cranking a strong low. Let's start the party. Where shall it go? Let's see in about 20 minutes.
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I usually don't like to jump the gun before a model run finishes, but I wouldn't be surprised if this run brings Irma closer to the East Coast compared to 18z.

EDIT: My reasoning is because of the 500mb maps btw.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah the GFS was second only to the CMC as they battled for worst place on Harvey.
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ah yes I still remember when the GFS/CMC took Harvey into Mexico

Just slightly off

The Euro wasn't perfect but at least it was in the right area
 
0z GFS sure is deeping that trough over the east. With a trough like that, Irma will be OTS on this run.

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GFS 893mb

Yeah okay That'd be unheard of that far north and a top 5 pressure ever in the Atlantic :rolleyes:
 
Yeah the GFS has convective feedback issues wherein its depiction of very strong tropical cyclones is usually very overdone. I don't buy a sub 900mb pressure in the Atlantic aside from the NW Caribbean and loop current in the SE GOM where it's essentially an all you can eat buffet of tropical cyclone heat potential, otherwise almost certainly not happening...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the GFS has convective feedback issues wherein its depiction of very strong tropical cyclones is usually very overdone. I don't buy a sub 900mb pressure in the Atlantic aside from the NW Caribbean and loop current in the SE GOM where it's essentially an all you can eat buffet of tropical cyclone heat potential, otherwise almost certainly not happening...
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A weaker system is more likely to stay south longer correct?
 
Canadian is leaning towards likely getting captured by the trough at the very end of the run.
gem_z500a_atl_41.png
 
Per records from 1851 through 2017, I found 51 TC's that moved between 14N and 20N when crossing 30W. Out of these 51, 6 (12%) hit the CONUS (5 of these 6 between 14N and 15N with the other being between 15N and 16N), 14 (27%) dissipated over open water, and 31 (61%) recurved east of the CONUS
 
Euro has a major hurricane just southeast of Puerto Rico at 168. GFS is way north of PR

Better trough digging over the SE

and the Gulf storm is back in the Northern Gulf

Over Hispanola at 192, Euro is south of its previous runs

Gulf storm is moving SE over the Gulf with a large cutoff low over the SE
 
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240 hours over Central Cuba and appears to be Gulf bound with a ridge over Florida and points north

Well that's a new idea
 
Uh oh. Ridge Builds in over the East coast and Irma says "hey texas, see you soon".. well hopefully not.. but either way.. bad news.

system is developed enough to not get totally torn apart by land interaction in all like-hood.
 
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