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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Okay Folks!! I know this system is over 10-14 days out but if you look at EURO AND CMC they are pretty similar out to Day 10 with almost the same exact track!! The GFS even shifted further South with 93L energy but have it very weak!! Caribbean ad Bahamas may have to keep a eye out for 93L and who knows maybe us here in the US. It is still ways out but I get excited when at least 2 models can agree on the long range tropicals. STAY TUNED TO SOUTHERNWX!!
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GaWx said:
I agree that any WSW motion should set off alarm bells. I did a study a number of years ago that showed that a fully developed TC moving WSW in the eastern MDR correlates to a higher than normal chance to hit landmasses in the western basin.
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Yeah the rossby wave train emanating from Western Pacific will intensify the AB high over 93L starting early next week, hence the WSW motion in the central Atlantic, definitely will increase the chances for this TC to impact somebody further west in spite of it already being poleward of 15N...
 
That either hooks hard north and gets abosorbed in the trough or it goes wsw into Mexico
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ECMWF makes 93L a tropical storm within the next 48-72 hours, there's a huge break in the ridge to 93L's northwest but it looks like that should close up by the time this gets there unfortunately...
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Oh Geez, 12z Euro has a tropical feature coming up on hr 144 in the GOM. With 93L, I wouldn't be surprised if it remained in the lower latitudes (around 20 deg. north) due to such a amplified ridge.
 
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WeatherWatch said:
Oh Geez, 12z Euro has a tropical feature coming up on hr 144 in the GOM. With 93L, I wouldn't be surprised if it remained in the lower latitudes (around 20 deg. north) due to such a amplified ridge.
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The trough to its north is very strong also it maybe out to see as it seem like it started that north jog on the end of the run.
 
If the trough is as strong as modeled, it'll be re-curve city! That is a DEEP trough! I could see the high in the Atlantic not being quite that strong! We know how models like to show 1060 MB highs, only to actually be 1020! Now that's a SE winter preview! :)
 
Tarheel1 said:
If the trough is as strong as modeled, it'll be re-curve city! That is a DEEP trough! I could see the high in the Atlantic not being quite that strong! We know how models like to show 1060 MB highs, only to actually be 1020! Now that's a SE winter preview! :)
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Also, if anything, if there is that other TC in the NE Gulf, I'd think that would add to the SE US weakness and help 93L make a sharp enough right turn. But this is all still a very long ways off and runs are far from consistent. I'd watch for WSW movement out in the MDR as a reason to be cautious in calling for a recurve E of the US even though either a recurve or dissipation like the 12Z GFS has is heavily favored by me over a CONUS hit as of now. If it goes WSW far enough and gets into the Caribbean intact, that may be trouble for the CONUS down the road.
 
EPS TC tracks thru day 15.... The members with maroon/pink tracks are major hurricanes which is a majority of them by the time this gets into the SW Atlantic. There's a split with now about 40% or so showing landfall and most of the rest staying out to sea, the LR pattern is going to get fairly uncertain given the western pacific typhoon recurvature of Sanvu, which usually leads to a reduction in NWP skill up thru about 10 days following the initial recurve of the WP typhoon as downstream errors with the eastward moving Rossby Wave Packet are increasingly lost in the noise... Yikes.
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Tarheel1 said:
If the trough is as strong as modeled, it'll be re-curve city! That is a DEEP trough! I could see the high in the Atlantic not being quite that strong! We know how models like to show 1060 MB highs, only to actually be 1020! Now that's a SE winter preview! :)
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The relationship doesn't usually apply during the heart of the hurricane season where we're concerned about the mean steering flow for tropical cyclones as opposed to surface cold air damming. The mid level (500 hpa) heights in the subtropical high are often underestimated by NWP, especially in the GFS & CMC...
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS TC tracks thru day 15.... The members with maroon/pink tracks are major hurricanes which is a majority of them by the time this gets into the SW Atlantic. There's a split with now about 40% or so showing landfall and most of the rest staying out to sea, the LR pattern is going to get fairly uncertain given the western pacific typhoon recurvature of Sanvu, which usually leads to a reduction in NWP skill up thru about 10 days following the initial recurve of the WP typhoon as downstream errors with the eastward moving Rossby Wave Packet are increasingly lost in the noise... Yikes.
View attachment 988
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Webb, You keep this up and the Santa suit is definitely going to someone else at the Christmas party ... :cool:
 
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