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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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So, what Webber is saying is that the low that is west of Irma is a TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough). Depending on what will occur with the TUTT, this will have an effect of the track of Irma. This weekend, both the TUTT and Irma will interact. I doubt that there will be a significant track change from it's WSW trajectory. Positive feedback and PVs in the downstream flow may break down the TUTT.

Even if the TUTT breaks down, I still don't think Irma will gain latitude before the islands due to the Atlantic ridge and the trough that will be over the east. That trough that will be over the east is still a big question rather or not it will lift before Irma gets closer to the EC if it does.

-Don

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145752_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Always interesting tidbits in the discussions...

Thereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause
the storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest.
The official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the
regional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on
this cycle.
 
That 00z EPS mean map that Eric posted is very similar to the track by another certain storm that started with an H in the late 80's. Especially as it made the turn towards the USA.

Premature to say, but scary!
 
Shawn said:
That 00z EPS mean map that Eric posted is very similar to the track by another certain storm that started with an H in the late 80's. Especially as it made the turn towards the USA.

Premature to say, but scary!
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Not premature on here to discuss it but any guesses as too how long before that gets thrown out there to joe public.... wagers anyone?
 
metwannabe said:
Not premature on here to discuss it but any guesses as too how long before that gets thrown out there to joe public.... wagers anyone?
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The 500mb setup is different of course. there was an ULL low sitting over the northern gulf/se states though.. like some of the forecast maps are showing... which made me think about it and compare it.
 
Shawn said:
The 500mb setup is different of course. there was an ULL low sitting over the northern gulf/se states though.. like some of the forecast maps are showing... which made me think about it and compare it.
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Do the latest EURO show a ULL Sitting over the northern gulf and SE around the time this storm is moving in??
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Do the latest EURO show a ULL Sitting over the northern gulf and SE around the time this storm is moving in??
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I shouldnt have said anything tbh, its too far out for anything specific like that. We aren't even sure where the SW jog is going to end up putting the system. The EPS mean was ominous towards the end of the run in regards to the mean track, but a lot of storms have done that and actually totally missed the United States. The big storm I alluded to, started out furtther South and never did take a SW jog like this one is forecast to do.
 
Shawn said:
I shouldnt have said anything tbh, its too far out for anything specific like that. We aren't even sure where the SW jog is going to end up putting the system. The EPS mean was ominous towards the end of the run in regards to the mean track, but a lot of storms have done that and actually totally missed the United States. The big storm I alluded to, started out furtther South and never did take a SW jog like this one is forecast to do.
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Meh I think it's fine to make comparisons and/or discuss past storms no matter how remote it may be, as I mentioned, on here... you just know somebody out there that loves hype will start talking doom and gloom to the public soon that's all I was alluding too.
And Larry great research/analysis as always.... it does show just how rare this would be, of course the concerning thing with that to me is this: the storm of 1893 was actually just north of 20N at 50W, the official track of Irma still has it south of 20N at 50W. Just something I noticed
 
metwannabe said:
Meh I think it's find to make comparisons and/or discuss past storms no matter how remote it maybe, as I mentioned, on here... you just know somebody out there that loves hype will start talking doom and gloom to the public soon that's all I was alluding too.
And Larry great research/analysis as always.... it does show just how rare this would be, of course the concerning thing with that to me is this: the storm of 1893 was actually just north of 20N at 50W, the official track of Irma still has it south of 20N at 50W. Just something I noticed
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If I may ... This is precisely the sort of discussion that prompts return visits ... among other good things ... :cool:
 
Also us along the EC need to keep in mind we have additional protection it's called the SD rain shield.... so we're good!
 
Storm #2 of 1915 was like the 1947 storm N of 14N (14.1N) at 30W and it also made it to the CONUS (TX):

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1915/2/track.gif

Storm #6 of 1938, which was at 14.7N, 30W, also hit the CONUS (big one that hit NE US):

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1938/6/track.gif

Gloria of 1985, which grazed NC and then hit the NE US, was also at 14.7N, 30W:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/GLORIA/track.gif

Fran of 1996 was at 14.1N, 30W:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1996/FRAN/track.gif

All of these, including 1893 and 1947, hit the US as a major except for Gloria.
 
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I think GFS still goes ots but it may get a little closer this run, the atlantic ridge looks a tad more west and the trough a little slower
 
Should make for a heckuva collision off the EC right...

e057b2c9fe1b1793d49108e653481df4.gif


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metwannabe said:
Should make for a heckuva collision off the EC right...

e057b2c9fe1b1793d49108e653481df4.gif


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Superstorm? Storm of the Century kind of stuff!
 
metwannabe said:
Should make for a heckuva collision off the EC right...

e057b2c9fe1b1793d49108e653481df4.gif


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Almost but not quite, Irma gets sucked up between the ridge and trough. Still a long ways out. Also, it's going to depend on the wave that may come about next week in the GOM.

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BHS1975 said:
Euro has a cut off low which would pull it in.


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You know speaking of that, to me, the GFS this run was much deeper with the trough and looked as if it tried to cutoff almost trended towards the Euro.... that's something to watch in the coming days no doubt

6z GFS

gfs_z500aNorm_us_35.png


12z GFS
gfs_z500aNorm_us_34.png


0z Euro

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_10.png
 
Euro speeding things up a little and possibly threatening the Islands Tuesday.... also its moving due west at this hour
ecmwf_mslpa_atl_7.png
 
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