Euro getting this thing pretty far west....should turn ots in time but still
I agree. Even if the 12Z Euro verified closely and it got that far west, it would very likely later recurve between 70 and 75 W as per what the 12Z EPS shows as the E US trough doesn't appear to be going away quickly. The WAR wouldn't be able to dislodge the trough per the EPS mean, with which I agree. Instead, its westward move comes to a halt just after day 10.
This is from an analysis I did awhile back:
2) 1960-2002 (with wx satellites):
a) I counted 21 CONUS hits from 125 storms that first became at least a TD east of 50W and south of 20N, which means the hit % for these was 17% or about one in six.
b) Of these 125 storms, 85 first became at least a TD east of 40W. Out of those 85, I counted 14 that hit the U.S., making the hit % for those which first formed east of 40W near 16% or just under one in six (i.e., not much different).
From another study I did awhile back:
The % U.S. hit rate for each month of formation of TCs East of 50W and S of 20N was as follows: 0% for each of June, Oct., and Nov.; 25% for July, 26% for Aug., and 17% for Sept. So, a C.V. STORM THAT FORMS DURING AUG. HAS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER CHANCE TO HIT THE U.S. ( ABOUT 1 IN 4) THAN ONE THAT FORMS DURING SEPT. (ONLY ABOUT 1 IN 6). July is also relatively high like Aug.
93L is progged to become a TD either in very late Aug or very early Sep. So, I'd call its chances of hitting the CONUS about 1 in 5 (splitting the difference) if ignoring models. Being in cold neutral to possible weak Nina probably doesn't sway the chances too much. Had it been mod to strong Nina, the chances would be raised while lowered for Nino.
Since the models are pretty strongly favoring a recurve E of the CONUS, I think the odds are probably a bit lower than 1 in 5....say something like 1 in 7 as of now. That's my take anyway.
