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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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pcbjr said:
Webb, You keep this up and the Santa suit is definitely going to someone else at the Christmas party ... :cool:
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Haha we'll see. It's still entirely within the margin of error this system manages to plow into the Greater Antilles and weaken considerably (& thus become a Gulf threat (yet again)), squeak into the Caribbean, hit the southeastern US (FL/GA/SC/NC), New England, and/or split the goalposts between the eastern seaboard and Bermuda and move harmlessly out to sea. Given the upcoming west-southwestward movement by day 4-6, it's extremely unlikely this system will stay east of Bermuda and at the very least could be threatening to landmasses further west, not just the US...
 
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That 18z GFS run wrecks FL and GA/Carolinas. Even I would get a good bruising from it.:confused:

Ah well, that's why it's 16 days out so it doesn't really matter at this point.
 
I'm glad we are between canes basically this weekend, as I will be on the Fl east coast from Friday- Wednesday! :)
 
We're up to 90/90

1. A low pressure area is located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This system continues to become better organized, and any
significant increase in the associated thunderstorm activity would
result in the formation of a tropical depression within the next day
or two. The low is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several
days. Heavy rain is possible over portions of the northwestern Cabo
Verde Islands for a few more hours.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Oh geez, 18z run of GFS, that's a weenie run for sure. No way I'm buying that from the GFS this far out. Come on, a Cat. 3 on the GFS 300+ hrs out? Could it happen?, sure, not saying it's not possible.
 
Storm5 said:
Hahah omgd this is amazing . Deeee teeeee going after JB and Larry Cosgrove
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Classic Comedy Gold! DT warming up for along winter! I think we are having sensory overload from Harvey! Take some deep breaths, enjoy your holiday weekend and see where we are at Tuesday!
 
GFS headed for a big hit again... heading for the Bahamas at day 9, ridge between it and the trough

Er and a magic door opens to allow a recurve east of Florida near the Eastern Bahamas at day 11, looks like it may head for NC or points north

Almost runs over the OBX at 312-324 hours then recurves east of New England
 
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Given the Euro likely can't adequately resolve the inner core of a TC like this, 93L is probably a category 5 hurricane in the southeastern Bahamas on this run and is heading WNW in the direction of the SE US... My fear wrt whether or not this impacts the US is showcased on this run in that 93L is too slow and by the time it begins to close in on the eastern seaboard the trough induced by the recurvature of a WP typhoon is already leaving and in its wake a backing ULL is left to mill around the SE US while the heights begin to build over New England and Southeastern Canada... Obviously we have a very long ways to go but this is something I would look for over the coming days in a large scale sense, i.e. the slower 93L goes, the more time this trough will have to leave and thus the less of an influence it will have on the steering flow, hence larger SE US threat & vis versa... Predictability of the mid latitude wave train will be considerably lower than normal at least for the next week and a half, thereafter another massive wrench in the steering flow could emerge wherein (what's being shown as Jose in the western Gulf) phases with an ULL over the SE US and its left to meander aimlessly while 93L is on its way from the south & east. ULL evolution is usually very difficult to forecast in 4-5 days in advance much less 2 weeks out, therefore extreme caution should be exercised when interpreting these solutions. While this particular scenario most definitely won't play out verbatim, we should be mindful that it's possible this trough may not be able to dig deep enough into the southeastern US to pick up 93L because the westerlies are still fairly shallow in the 1st half of September (except during El Nino years) & thus we may actually end up w/ a cut off ULL instead... Lots of details to iron out with 93L, including most notably & first/foremost a closed, well defined low level center of circulation.
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i had said yesterday to a friend I would expect it to kick out while not being surprised of a obx brush. but timing, timing, timing.... way too far out to know anything other than we will likely have a major hurricane lurking not too far from us.

edit, I just looked at the new euro run and re-read eric's post. ominous....
 
Yesterday's 0z EPS vs today's 0z EPS... Notice the southwestward shift overall with more members beginning to take this over the Greater Antilles and/or into the Caribbean & potentially the Gulf of Mexico. That's the last place that needs a TC right now.

Yesterday's 0z EPS
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Today's 0z EPS
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If I have learned anything about Hurricanes on this side of the world, it is to beware the "I" named storms. Isidore (2002) Isabel (2003) Ivan (2004) Ike (2008) Irene (2011) This is of course assuming this becomes "Irma". Edit: With the exception of Irene, all of these storms hit the US in the month of September.
 
Webberweather53 said:
NHC is going straight to Irma at 11am
AL, 11, 2017083012, IRMA
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And here we go... I really don't have much to add other than some great analysis on here, thanks Webb for going into such detail about the potential. All I know is we need to keep a watch on this as the all too familiar statement goes... prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
If I have learned anything about Hurricanes on this side of the world, it is to beware the "I" named storms. Isidore (2002) Isabel (2003) Ivan (2004) Ike (2008) Irene (2011) This is of course assuming this becomes "Irma". Edit: With the exception of Irene, all of these storms hit the US in the month of September.
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Larry said recently 7 out of 16 storms named with I hit the US between 2000 and 2016, which is quite high. That includes Irene, Ike, and Ivan to name a few. I have a bad feeling about this one...
 
Weatherlover92 said:
If I have learned anything about Hurricanes on this side of the world, it is to beware the "I" named storms. Isidore (2002) Isabel (2003) Ivan (2004) Ike (2008) Irene (2011) This is of course assuming this becomes "Irma". Edit: With the exception of Irene, all of these storms hit the US in the month of September.
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Yeah and with PTC 10 being a dud it couldn't even get the "I" storm out of our way.......
 
Tropical tidbits already has Irma up on the current storm page...
I know this is a unique setup and Webb has laid that out in great detail but it's certainly not often a storm forms that far east and makes landfall, we shall see plenty of model watching to go with this one
 
Well here is the early model track guidance for 12z and most make that SW movement that is concerning..
aal93_2017083012_track_early.png


11L_tracks_latest.png
 
T
Webberweather53 said:
Yesterday's 0z EPS vs today's 0z EPS... Notice the southwestward shift overall with more members beginning to take this over the Greater Antilles and/or into the Caribbean & potentially the Gulf of Mexico. That's the last place that needs a TC right now.

Yesterday's 0z EPS
View attachment 995

Today's 0z EPS
View attachment 996
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That SW jog on the track from the latest EPS run is concerning! The longer or steeper that jog, the harder it'll be for the recurve to miss the Eastcoast!
 
The first big hurdle wrt long track of Irma (aside from intensity of the TC) is the placement of this upper level trough (indicated by the meridionally orientated cluster of moderate convection on its eastern flank NW of Irma) about halfway between Bermuda and the Azores. The European model backs it southwestward much faster and weakens it more quickly than other guidance and thus allows the Azores-Bermuda high to remain largely in tact and build in ahead of Irma pushing it W-WNW, whereas the CMC & GFS slow this ULL down and allow it to remain relatively stronger, which provides just enough of a weakness in the western flank of the ridge for Irma to travel NW before reaching PR and the Lesser Antilles...
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ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_6.png
 
You can clearly see where this ULL is, right on the leading edge of the SAL just to the west of all the convection going off... As mentioned above this is going to be a very key feature in steering Irma in about 3-4 days or so...

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Please, and i hate to say it, but this storm has the US. written all over it. The south dive really concerns me because it could easly miss the trough. Especially if the troughs is a quick mover.. Plus like someone mention before, if the storm slow down that gives it time to miss the trough. Yes, long 2 weeks og watching.
 
Hope this curves out to sea, but have a bad feeling about this one. The first two weeks of September are notorious for big hurricanes for NC.
 
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