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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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New track shifts east but on left side of guidance.. Big model shifts so ots is certainly a possibility again.
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From NHC....
The official forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance.

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Yep 6z GFS is slightly more West and landfall definitely further SW on GA/SC border.... I don't know gut tells me not to buy the far East or OTS solutions until we see 48 hours of all models agreeing
 
Arcc said:
For the past few hours, Irma has taken a much more western jog. It will be close to PR and now possibly rake the island with the eyewall. Looks like a ERC may be starting.
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I’m curious about that too. If she does gain some latitude soon she is on a direct hit path with PR
 
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Storm5 said:
Look at how far the mean shifted east on the 06z GEFS . A few more days of that and it will stay offshore. That would be GREAT news . Let's hope the east trend continues today

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Just barely hits the outer banks of NC here. Crazy east shift.
 
So the 6z GFS operational run shifted slightly West while it's Ensemble members shifted East I have a feeling this is going to be a crazy model watching day too bad I'm stuck in a classroom the next two days. Y'all post some great stuff I'll check and read every once in awhile

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Irma trucking it pretty much due west....maybe WWWNW. She is just doing what she wants. ANY land interaction over the next 24 hours will throw HUGE shifts in her final destination. Going to be a very interesting day for sure. I am still sticking to a far eastern Gulf storm until consistency is shown for a few runs.
 
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