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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Big shift. Expect NHC to shift cone way east at 5 AM
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GaWx said:
The 0Z Euro ~100 miles NE of its 12Z run in FL Straits. More evidence of an eastward trend?
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By Thursday , I'll be partly cloudy and breezy for next Monday -Wednesday ! And that's a good thing!
 
Seems it has a small window for a path OTS. Too early to tell though. Ridge is not nosing in like it is on the GFS.. Nvm it got captured by the ULL should slingshot west
 
Looks to be headed due north to between Beaufort and Charleston just after hour 144.
 
BHS1975 said:
Yeah


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Well I get what yo're saying, no offense, but you certainly can't deduce that the 185 mph winds aren't making it to the surface sustained by that one maybe 5 foot b 5 foot by 10 foot high station in a storm whose eyewall alone may cover 2 or 3 thousand square miles. If you have other wind reports that can corroborate that from that area and the other islands please share. Also when the NHC says sustained winds they are saying sustained for a minimum of 1 minute at any given point at any given time. It can be deceiving because it does sound like the entire eyewall is going 185 mph around the eye but that's not the case nor what they are saying.
 
The 0Z Euro track would give CHS about the worst of the storm surge with the movement of the center ~25 miles SW of them based on the closeup maps that I have. SAV, though hit with a bit heavier rain (8") than CHS (6 "), wouldn't get near the storm surge CHS would get.
I know it is very early to pin down the time of landfall. However, I will say that IF the 0Z Euro were to play out, the center would be approaching CHS at low tide, a big help as low tide is 6 feet lower than high tide there then.

Regardless, most importantly, this run tells us that the eastward trend is in play now and further eastward trends are quite possible.
 
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If CHS were hit by Irma, the battery would likely even be under water

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I think we can come to the conclusion that the Barbuda stations anemometer got shredded as the eyewall hit. The last gust recorded was around 155mph . The barometer is still working although it blanked out for a bit so don't know how accurate it is or whether that tower is even standing up. The lowest pressure recorded was 921 mb before everything went down. The storm was est at 915 at the time I believe.
Next up is Anguilla. They are looking like the right front eyewall in about 6 or 8 hours. Got to be some scary crap going on down there.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BARA9
 
Well everything so far is east.im guessing the EPS will trend east also. Im sure things could go west but the east trend is becoming more likely and nice.
 
Still days away for Irma to have a mind set. Things could and will change as she gets closer home.
 
Shawn said:
If CHS were hit by Irma, the battery would likely even be under water

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That'd be horrible for the folks in CHS. I'm starting to feel very uneasy about the models now and what they are depicting trackwise. I'm hoping the EPS will still be to our west mainly. Just gotta hope the models start trending back the other way or better yet, OTS. Though the later is not looking likely. I think the shortwave digging more in the Midwest is the culprit for it lifting and and more easterly track, yes?
 
0Z EPS mean is slightly NE of the 12Z EPS near the latitude of N FL due to having fewer Gulf tracks rather than fewer FL tracks and slightly further north average positions (more progressive movement). So, if anything, I'd say the 0Z EPS supports the eastward trend. There are now many more tracks approaching the Carolinas vs those in the E GOM. Opposite to the westward trend of 24+ hours ago.
 
East and west are still in play I think. My issue with the east trend is how far out before the storm actually stops the westward movement and the path they want it to take to get to the SE coast or even out to sea. I dunno, if it stays this strong they just dont turn on a dime. I might be mistaken but I dont think I've seen a storm this strong ever do that, Atlantic or Pacific. If the models start curving it instead of hitting the brakes and shooting it north imo that would make more sense. I'm also lear of whats going to turn it. God forbid if it suddenly weakens to 950 or 960, then it's going to be the magical mstery tour ten fold over what it is now. If it starts to consistently gain some real latitude in the next 24 hours, EC or OTS become more viable but not definite. The parts around the storm just started moving yesterday. Still have some things to play out that even the models can't see. Right now I'm stuck on 280-290 track with minor deviations.
 
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Jackstraw said:
I think we can come to the conclusion that the Barbuda stations anemometer got shredded as the eyewall hit. The last gust recorded was around 155mph . The barometer is still working although it blanked out for a bit so don't know how accurate it is or whether that tower is even standing up. The lowest pressure recorded was 921 mb before everything went down. The storm was est at 915 at the time I believe.
Next up is Anguilla. They are looking like the right front eyewall in about 6 or 8 hours. Got to be some scary crap going on down there.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BARA9
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The eye went over the ne side of the island so the station on the sw side may have not gotten into the max winds in the eyewall.


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You may be right but what it got knocked it out! Might be splitting hairs strong side weak side (don't get me started on that lol) in one of the strongest hurricanes in the western hemisphere ever.

Edit: Well in recorded history would be more accurate ;)
 
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