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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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BHS1975 said:
Hopefully it won't .


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Hope not but if we continue to trend that shortwave diving through the deep south farther S and stronger then we will see the tendency for models to show a westward solution again. Right now its almost acting slightly like a kicker which is part of the reason we saw the models (minus the GFS) jump east last night. There is just a lot of little nuance things within the pattern that will result in such a large track difference.
 
SD said:
Hope not but if we continue to trend that shortwave diving through the deep south farther S and stronger then we will see the tendency for models to show a westward solution again. Right now its almost acting slightly like a kicker which is part of the reason we saw the models (minus the GFS) jump east last night. There is just a lot of little nuance things within the pattern that will result in such a large track difference.
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good points
 
New map from Chris Simmons:
21316348_1370027076428750_4090281632974424808_o.jpg
 
I see the Euro went east at 0z. Maybe it'll eventually miss the phase and stay juuuuuussssssstttttt offshore in the end.
 
deltadog03 said:
Maybe gawx can help, or anyone else, but hurricanes love to get pulled or rugged near the islands when passing westward on the north side. New map coming soon
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I don't know, Chris. I'm not saying that isn't a possible tendency, however. But I thought that, if anything, they may tend to go for the water ASAP when over land....a perpendicular crossing of islands as opposed to lingering longer. Maybe Webber can chime in if he reads this and knows the answer. Also, maybe JB can answer this tonight. I think JB believes that they "seek out" water in many cases.
 
There's little question about the recent easterly trend of the models near the SE US. However, do others agree that she looks to be moving a bit south of the model consensus causing a higher threat for the eye to cross at least the NE portion of PR? I first noticed this last evening. Opinions? If so, is that inconsistent with the recent eastward trend of the models near the SE US or not?
 
GaWx said:
There's little question about the recent easterly trend of the models near the SE US. However, do others agree that she looks to be moving a bit south of the model consensus causing a higher threat for the eye to cross at least the NE portion of PR? I first noticed this last evening. Opinions? If so, is that inconsistent with the recent eastward trend of the models near the SE US or not?
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It looks to my eyes , to still be moving W , on satellite and radar, also looks like it's becoming asymmetrical on the W side a little bit?
 
GaWx said:
There's little question about the recent easterly trend of the models near the SE US. However, do others agree that she looks to be moving a bit south of the model consensus causing a higher threat for the eye to cross at least the NE portion of PR? I first noticed this last evening. Opinions? If so, is that inconsistent with the recent eastward trend of the models near the SE US or not?
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No doubt. She is way south of the models. I think that Irma is just so strong of a storm that it is moving more west than NW. I feel that if she doesn't start moving more NW, Puerto Rico will get a severe hit from Irma, and possibly cause a major change in Irma's strength. This may get really bad if it doesn't move NW soon, and I feel something is up with the models. Not sure what, but as I said, I think that the strength is too much for the models to handle, so that may be the case.
 
GaWx said:
There's little question about the recent easterly trend of the models near the SE US. However, do others agree that she looks to be moving a bit south of the model consensus causing a higher threat for the eye to cross at least the NE portion of PR? I first noticed this last evening. Opinions? If so, is that inconsistent with the recent eastward trend of the models near the SE US or not?
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I am interested in seeing if it does get closer to PR.
 
ForsythSnow said:
No doubt. She is way south of the models. I think that Irma is just so strong of a storm that it is moving more west than NW. I feel that if she doesn't start moving more NW, Puerto Rico will get a severe hit from Irma, and possibly cause a major change in Irma's strength. This may get really bad if it doesn't move NW soon, and I feel something is up with the models. Not sure what, but as I said, I think that the strength is too much for the models to handle, so that may be the case.
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if west movement really dominates through the island, could that effect the track also? Something more of what the CMC was showing yesterday?
 
Definitely has a northerly component the last few frames of satellite loop. I would say its WNW ATM.

I may stand corrected looking at Puerto Rico radar.....geez!
 
Right now the 12z nam is a bit north of irma current position
 
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