Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[whatalife]

My thoughts

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Damn Charlie where's my shirt for winning March Madness!?!


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[Brick Tamland]

My thoughts

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I think there should be a shirt with my avatar and the words "I Love Southernwx.com" under it.

 

[Weatherlover92]

If Irma is in the process of going through an ERC, it doesn't seem to be having an effect on strength so far. There's deeper convection developing/wrapping around the western side of Irma's eye.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rbtop-long.html

 

[Brent]

914.3 per recon

 

[StoneMtnWx]

NW eyewall drop sound...

 

[Jackstraw]

Yeah - I'm looking for an answer since I've seen it said both ways, and frankly, this is one on which have no clue (among perhaps many other things ... LOL)

Since the aircraft are in there pretty much non stop the will get the data into the models.every run. Just depends on how much and how good the data is. The G-IV data is the most important right now for the models imo.

 

[Brent]

Appears an ewrc is about to begin 914.1 secondary wind maxima

 

[Jackstraw]

Appears an ewrc is about to begin 914.1 secondary wind maxima

As fast as this thing has a history of completing ERC's, ma be bad news for the islands.

Edit: eah m -< ke broke lol

 

[pcbjr]

As fast as this thing has a history of completing ERC's, ma be bad news for the islands.

Hey - Is your Mom riding this one out?

 

[SD]

186kt at 906mb good lord

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[Jackstraw]

Hey - Is your Mom riding this one out?

We'll see in about 36 hours what the silicon gods are forecasting. She's prettie damn stubborn.

 

[StoneMtnWx]

186kt at 906mb good lord

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Right??? 169 kts at 933mb which is about 200mph...if those winds filter down, watch out.

 

[Webberweather53]

Recon did not find stronger surface winds in Irma, but the pressure has fallen about 9mb, dropsonde in the eye supports 917mb.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Allan on twitter stated that most of the GEFS members are west of the OP

 

[Arcc]

Won't learn much from the GEFS . The ensembles have such a large spread right now that a big east track or a big west would fit inside the ensemble envelope .

Such a huge model spread among the OPs

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Got that right, the mean is actually west of 12z. Must be some huge west outliers.

 

[accu35]

Got that right, the mean is actually west of 12z. Must be some huge west outliers.

Thats not good

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Got that right, the mean is actually west of 12z. Must be some huge west outliers.

Did clusters of members shift in any particular direction.. I am still waiting on TT to update

 

[pcbjr]

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[ForsythSnow]

190 per the drop!

 

[ForsythSnow]