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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Yup trapped in the trough now and it's tilting should accelerate into my backyard. Not what I was looking for

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18z may be way off or a true east trend. Other model do not agree with gfs
 
Shawn said:
It's been through Hugo and was fine... I would assume Irma will move quickly too! Shingles, that's another story lol.
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Well, the 18z makes it a mute point for me :) I like being in the bulls eye days ahead, if the winter storm adage holds true. It worries me to have it turn early this far out, lol. I'm not sure I trust not being in the bullseye.... I was counting on it missing me because the models were bringing it overhead, lol. T
 
The back and forth from west to east is crazy and very frustrating.
 
pcbjr said:
Last night was the spine of Florida, maybe west coast; now it's a Matthew-like almost redux ... Folks - there is still a good 48 hours +/- before anything is even close to "maybe certain" ... keep the grits in for now ...
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Its quite a bit from Matthew's track when all was said and done. Matthew's eyewall stays just off the coast until it got up this way (i think it supposedly made a short landfall close to Myrtle but i may be mistaken). Then went up and caused NC all kinds of problems. But either way, just one 18z run.. will be very important to see what the GEFS says here in a bit.
 
The key in this is going to be the shortwave...if the phase gets missed this is going to stay just ots...and depending on when the phase happens will determine where this monster makes landfall...
 
Give or take 3-6 hours even of the SW, and it drastically changes the landfall point. Freakin' forecast nightmare!
 
Shawn said:
Its quite a bit from Matthew's track when all was said and done. Matthew's eyewall stays just off the coast until it got up this way (i think it supposedly made a short landfall close to Myrtle but i may be mistaken). Then went up and caused NC all kinds of problems. But either way, just one 18z run.. will be very important to see what the GEFS says here in a bit.
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Did not mean to suggest it was Matthew 2 - only that some models are running up the coast today, like Matthew, while others were running in a wholly different direction less than 24 hours ago ... Was only making an analogy ...
 
pcbjr said:
Did not mean to suggest it was Matthew 2 - only that some models are running up the coast today, like Matthew, while others were running in a wholly different direction less than 24 hours ago ... Was only making an analogy ...
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Euro I think even struggled with Matthew in the short range if I'm not mistaken? Eventually it got the idea of what happened!
 
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