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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Shawn said:
Give or take 3-6 hours even of the SW, and it drastically changes the landfall point. Freakin' forecast nightmare!
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Your right Shawn. Any current movement of the storm will dramatically change the track
 
Shawn said:
Its quite a bit from Matthew's track when all was said and done. Matthew's eyewall stays just off the coast until it got up this way (i think it supposedly made a short landfall close to Myrtle but i may be mistaken). Then went up and caused NC all kinds of problems. But either way, just one 18z run.. will be very important to see what the GEFS says here in a bit.
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Won't learn much from the GEFS . The ensembles have such a large spread right now that a big east track or a big west would fit inside the ensemble envelope .

Such a huge model spread among the OPs

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Shawn said:
Give or take 3-6 hours even of the SW, and it drastically changes the landfall point. Freakin' forecast nightmare!
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Yep this type of approach is not easy to forecast 100 miles west or so and it's a Fl landfall

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My two cents is the GFS is probably too far east...but it shows what will happen if the phase is late and what may possibly happen if there's no phase...a frightening hurricane churning just off of the east coast but the main damage limited to coastal areas.
 
Storm5 said:
Won't learn much from the GEFS . The ensembles have such a large spread right now that a big east track or a big west would fit inside the ensemble envelope .

Such a huge model spread among the OPs

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I was just hoping to see a substantial idea/shift on many members to the East... to give this solution credit. The area 18z heads to, has been off and on both Euro and GFS periodically. This is a hard one to figure out.
 
GFS vs. mostly every other model. I've seen this movie before...it usually doesn't end well, but then again there's that "broken clock is right twice a day" thing to fall back on.
Only takeaway I have from all models today is Irma's track is still a clusterf--- of a mess to figure out past 72 hrs.
 
Stormlover said:
one run isn't a trend
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The GFS has been trending east in the last two runs and honestly is likely too far east sadly. This would be the best case considering the monster of a hurricane we're dealing with...but probably the least likely.

Edit: Actually the GFS stopped trending west yesterday.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
GFS vs. mostly every other model. I've seen this movie before...it usually doesn't end well, but then again there's that "broken clock is right twice a day" thing to fall back on.
Only takeaway I have from all models today is Irma's track is still a clusterf--- of a mess to figure out past 72 hrs.
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Totally different situation, but two years or maybe 3 ago, there was a big blizzard/system coming to the NE and the GFS definitely won out vs the Euro with the track. Most forecasts held onto the Euro and it was quite a bust. It does outperform sometimes! lol
 
Notice how the finger ridge gets eroded on this run and as soon as it does the storm gains a northward component to it's movement
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SD said:
I would assume that all data is being ingested as it's compiled but I could be wrong.

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Yeah - I'm looking for an answer since I've seen it said both ways, and frankly, this is one on which have no clue (among perhaps many other things ... LOL)
 
The GFS seems to latch onto a particular idea and hold it for about 24-36 hours and then shift and repeat. First it was NJ and the mid atlantic, then it shifted and showed NC hits. Then Florida. Now back to NC. It's almost like it's hoping to guess accurately lol
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
The GFS seems to latch onto a particular idea and hold it for about 24-36 hours and then shift and repeat. First it was NJ and the mid atlantic, then it shifted and showed NC hits. Then Florida. Now back to NC. It's almost like it's hoping to guess accurately lol
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Goofus gonna goofus. Very frustrating. We're not talking about a fun snowstorm here, either.
 
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