Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[SD]

The divergence in the GEFS tracks start about here which is when the op brought it northward. Obviously there is a good but of disagreement on how long the ridge stays in play. Conventional wisdom says the op gfs is probably too far east

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[Jackstraw]

Honestly, I'm not buying any track or even trend beyond 72 hours as long as this stays in the low 930's or lower. I know that bucks the norm but so far this isn't normal. There are just way too many if's involved in even the model runs. Not going to hedge my bets on cutoffs and ULL's this far out, not to mention small scale features that could influence the track down the line. Just me, but I really don't have any warm fuzzy's about these runs atm.

 

[tennessee storm]

Please stop with the scripture war. This is Southern WX not Southern Religion! Thanks!!

Please stop with the scripture war. This is Southern WX not Southern Religion! Thanks!!

sorry if i offended someone... i know... back to weather... which i am pretty good at

 

[pcbjr]

The divergence in the GEFS tracks start about here which is when the op brought it northward. Obviously there is a good but of disagreement on how long the ridge stays in play. Conventional wisdom says the op gfs is probably too far east

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Conventional wisdom flew out the window a couple days ago ...

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

 

[thanksgivingbrown]

The new 8pm advisory keeps the winds at 185mph. NHC is stubborn, I guess

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

 

[Xtreme Weather]

 

[skywatcher]

Did two Cat 4 or higher hurricanes strike the US in 2004 ?

Irma hasn't struck the US yet. Her saffir simpson rating at landfall is yet to be determined.

 

[pcbjr]

Irma hasn't struck the US yet. Her saffir simpson rating at landfall is yet to be determined.

It is ramped at Publix - for goodness sakes - just went in to pick up a few minor items and you'd think a foot of snow was about to fall tomorrow and stick for 2 weeks ... shelves are empty, and I mean, empty ...

 

[skywatcher]

It is ramped at Publix - for goodness sakes - just went in to pick up a few minor items and you'd think a foot of snow was about to fall ... shelves are empty, and I mean, empty ...

Man, wouldn't a foot of snow be preferable!

 

[thanksgivingbrown]

Wow! Dropsonde found 226mph winds roughly 600 feet off the ground

 

[Storm5]

Please join us tomorrow night at 7pm central as we welcome back Joe Bastardi from wxbell.com for a special Hurricane Irma show . He will be joining us live from St Augustine Florida !! Don't miss it

 

[Metwannabe]

Per Allan Huffman 18z gefs average

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[GeorgiaGirl]

The GEFS unfortunately is close to what I'm thinking for this hurricane...

 

[ForsythSnow]

The GEFS unfortunately is close to what I'm thinking for this hurricane...

It agrees relatively with the HMON.

 

[dpbutler1]

The gefs 18z is out on TT. I don't think it was posted yet.

 

[Storm5]

Guests please go sign up as we are likely to disable the guest view option later this week . Takes 30 seconds , join the conversation

 

[malak05]

This storm at face value if it maintains it's strength and path is a threat for the entire SE depending on where it lands and if it tracks inland it will be have a long way to go to die down in strength... Tornadoes, Flooding issues, straight wind damage and Power outages just cause you live in Atlanta/Birmingham/Columbia/Augusta etc depending on path all will face a multitude of threats

 

[StoneMtnWx]

18Z HWRF doesn't go to Cuba this run...Hits the Keys and makes landfall near Naples, Fl.