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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH... AS WELL AS FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS... LAKE OKEECHOBEE... AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.
 
I think we can probably toss the NAM but NHC better hope it's wrong because they are all in with the Euro.....
 
Just looked at the 21z SREFs there are a lot that are leaned toward the NAM idk weird stuff

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Think the new NHC advisory for 11pm even further West and weaker with Irma. Cant access the page to save.
 
SD said:
Just looked at the 21z SREFs there are a lot that are leaned toward the NAM idk weird stuff

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That's interesting to say the least.... look at the SREF's during winter all the time but have no idea how they handle tropical systems.
 
21317919_918918488262453_8288613976136539909_n.jpg
 
Yeah new advisory has her down to a TS before ATL. Thankfully! ANd shifted even West vs last.
 
"Irma Down to..." Yeupp Still Levels Everything in her immediate LFall:(.
 
I don't know how they determine categories but it's interesting how some categories have a wider range than others. For instance, Cat 2 is only 96-110 where as category 4 is 131-155. BTW, I thought 130 mph was Cat 4 but that graph clearly shows 130 mph being Cat 3.
 
metwannabe said:
That's interesting to say the least.... look at the SREF's during winter all the time but have no idea how they handle tropical systems.
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Yeah not sure I just looked to see if they supported the nam. Weird stuff, most likely a blip but something to think about

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EV_WS said:
"Irma Down to..." Yeupp Still Levels Everything in her immediate LFall:(.
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Yeah. A cat 5 is a cat 5. The HMON and HWRF have been hinting at this weakening for a couple days now and it appears they were right on. Unfortunately, it looks like per the HMON Irma will become her 185 mph strength again before hitting Miami. Not so much on the HWRF.
 
Storm5 said:
Interesting

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makes sense, WPC is the backup and I can imagine they are just covering their bases. Like I posted earlier, the building will be fine and they stayed live during Andrew with 160 mph winds but you never know with this one, the big concern would be loss of communication
 
deltadog03 said:
IMO they are weakening her a bit fast once inland. obviously its going to weaken, but Don't know if its that fast.
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Yeah, that's the big question, I think Irma could be at least a Cat. 1 up until southern GA. Irma will be coming in with a punch and the "after effects" of that punch will still be noticeable if you will.
 
It was just mentioned and I just noticed.... CHS was removed from the cone per latest advisory... Hm.. thats a bit, of a big change before 00z ;/
 
I just looked at the SREF (21z). I see what SD means... interesting... how some do follow the idea of the 00z NAM.

The mean still keeps CHS in play.. so the new advisory .. idk
 
At least SC repels the hurricanes like they do the snow. Works for me. Just another rainy day with a little wind. Sucks for Florida and GA however.
 
00z GFS is ever so slightly east. Enought o matter? lets see.
 
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