EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
What time is the live show tonight?
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
- Status
Irma is definitely gaining symmetry and becoming organized. About time for the Cat 5 run.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think that once ERC is complete in an hour or two, it could very well go for a strong 4 or 5. 3 planes in the air right now.
We may get a show as the convective diurnal max approaches.
pcbjr
Member
Just playing the "supposin'" game here - if she came in to S FL as a 5 and ran the peninsula, and was feeding off of the Atl or Gulf, she'd likely still be a 1 or 2 going into S GA or back into the Atl ...
This is serious stuff, folks ... but still a very long ways out ... so no need to ring any alarm bells at this time ...
Still a Cat 2 according to the latest advisory. I thought someone said they upgraded it to Cat 3 ?
MichaelJ
Member
I do not like this EURO solution for NC,SC and Va. at all! If the midwest trough shown on the GFS is not there as the EURO shows, and the high is strengthening as forecast, we could have a very very slow moving system or even a stalled one close to the NC/SC border. This would lead to copious rainfall and, unlike Houston, in much higher and more difficult terrain for flooding. Flash flooding would be a major and possibly catastrophic issue for this part of the SE after landfall occurs
ForsythSnow
Moderator
You must be getting old information. Irma was a 3 at last advisory, but the info is showing a definite 4 at 5.
NHC website says 120 mph as of the 2pm intermediate advisory.
130 mph Cat 4 as of 5 pm advisory..
Yeah I see they just updated it to a Cat 4 as of the 5pm advisory.
Not liking that track.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Expecting 150 in a day, lasting for 12 hours.
INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 54.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 16.6N 56.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 61.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 18.7N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 20.4N 69.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 21.6N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 54.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 16.6N 56.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 61.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 18.7N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 20.4N 69.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 21.6N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 23.0N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
pcbjr
Member
Click this link, then go to the top and click the D7 for each model ...
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
Scary stuff ...
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
Scary stuff ...
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It's going to have to make a hard right not to make in it the Gulf based on the NHC track.
Just playing the "supposin'" game here - if she came in to S FL as a 5 and ran the peninsula, and was feeding off of the Atl or Gulf, she'd likely still be a 1 or 2 going into S GA or back into the Atl ...
This is serious stuff, folks ... but still a very long ways out ... so no need to ring any alarm bells at this time ...
Hard to say, but probably atleast a Cat 2 with the pressure of a mid to strong cat 3.
Stormlover
Member
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