Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Storm5]

Until W trend stops still the chance that models can shift with overall track in the end

True but the idea of a North turn around Florida is gaining momentum. I guess it's possible an extreme eastern gulf of Mexico entrance but any further west than that is gonna need something like land interruption .

The western ensemble members from yesterday have shifted back to the east a little today

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[GeorgiaGirl]

Man the Euro is really close to a rare Georgia landfall.

 

[Storm5]

Euro takes a NW track after landfall which is supported by ensembles

Don't tell Deeeeee Teeee

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[Meteorologist1999]

Yes, I truly believe the West trend have stopped for now, and we may be looking at a south FL/east FL with Direct Impacts from Irma but we are still days out!!

 

[ForsythSnow]

FS, would the euro be a huge wind and rain maker for our area?

The Euro at 192 and GFS at 186 are identical at location, so the rain shield should extend into Georgia well enough for some good rain.

 

[Arcc]

Can you imagine this thing north eyewalling Miami as a Cat 4-5 to then go north and slam the very surge prone area of GA/SC?

 

[Metwannabe]

Soooo trying to skim over about 5-6 pages or so and is it safe to say today's 12z models have halted (for now) the westward trend? Sure looks like they all are showing that north turn.... just when. Also I think it was mentioned but Irma is moving due west and is going to be just north of the forecast track not sure if this will have significant impacts or not

also I'll add if the Euro verifies your still talking a week away before landfall... crazy

 

[accu35]

 

[Storm5]

Plenty of rain and wind for Georgia

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[NorthGaWinter4]

Plenty of rain and wind for Georgia

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Wow. Thats going to be devastating

 

[whatalife]

Plenty of rain and wind for Georgia

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That low looks like it's right over my house


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[Arcc]

Anyone see that, initialized Cat 4.

 

[Snowfan]

I see it.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Anyone see that, initialized Cat 4.

It's officially a category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph as of the latest update.

Location: 16.7°N 53.9°W
Maximum Winds: 115 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

 

[SimeonNC]

Plenty of rain and wind for Georgia

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Time to plan evacuations

 

[deltadog03]

That would be super nasty for FL, GA and the Carolinas. Hmmm some model agreement? Did dr no skirt Cuba too?

 

[accu35]

Time to plan evacuations

Honestly anyone from Al and eastward should take precautions juat incase

 

[deltadog03]

Also remember FL isn’t going to slow this down that much in strength either

 

[pcbjr]

Time to plan evacuations

The question remains - from where and to where?
Much better idea in 48 hours, I respectfully suggest ...

 

[Nam0806]

Although all options are on the table still, it's never too early to make preparations for supplies, make evacuation routes, etc.