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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

In 24 hours there could be a hurricane over central Georgia.

032536_5day_expCone.png
 
They're shifting it back east because the overnight ships and super ensemble did so.

This is trying to keep atl on the more sane side. The last thing atl needs is to be on the east side of this storm.

With that said, this really hurts gsp

Here's the gefs for example.
AL092024_gefs.png
 
Looking better but still struggling to get deep convection wrapped all the way around still pressure down another few MB....regardless the huge east side windfield is gonna push massive surge.
 
536 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 600 AM EDT.

* AT 535 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF COPELAND, OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF AVE
MARIA, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AVE MARIA, IMMOKALEE, GOLDEN GATE ESTATES, ORANGETREE, BIG
CORKSCREW ISLAND, MILES CITY, CORKSCREW SWAMP SANCTUARY, SUNNILAND,
BUNKER HILL, AND LAKE TRAFFORD.
 
Potentially dumb question here - I know that larger storms tend to take longer to intensify; does the inverse tend to hold true as well - are larger storms more resilient? Is it more likely to remain stronger inland just due to its size, or is that really irrelevant?
 
One thing I noticed is the nhc weakened intensity guidance but there’s a lot of water between their max intensity point and the coast.

Just saying
 
555 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS EXTENDED
THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 800 AM EDT.

* AT 555 AM EDT, RUTHERFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS REPORTING
THAT THE TOWN OF LAKE LURE HAS OPENED TAINTER GATES TO A DEPTH OF
14 FEET DUE TO FLASH FLOODING ABOVE LAKE LURE. THE RESULTANT
FLOODWAVE CONTINUES TO IMPACT SEVERAL AREAS DOWNSTREAM, INCLUDING:
RIVER CREEK CAMPGROUND, HOMES IN THE GREEN HILL COMMUNITY, AREAS
IN THE CLEGHORN AND UNION COMMUNITIES, AND COX RD. RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO HEED EVACUATION GUIDANCE FROM RUTHERFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING RESULTING IN DAM GATE
RELEASES.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE BROAD RIVER,
IMPACTING CAMPGROUNDS, HOMES, ROADWAYS AND OTHER
ADJACENT LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE BROAD RIVER.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE FLASH
FLOODING INCLUDE...
LAKE LURE, HARRIS AND CLIFFSIDE.
 
DustinWx said:
One thing I noticed is the nhc weakened intensity guidance but there’s a lot of water between their max intensity point and the coast.

Just saying
Click to expand...

They mention they expect it to strengthen till landfall so maybe 120-125 at landfall...if it can get it together.
 
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