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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
 
GaWx said:
And yet even with the higher SLP of the globals, they all are flirting with all-time record low SLP in much of C and NE GA!
Click to expand...
I'm afraid to say that this storm is going to catch a lot of people with their pants down.
They're going to be surprised by how much this affects inland GA and the Carolinas with its fury.
I hope I'm wrong.
 
156 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 230 AM EDT.

* AT 155 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER GOLDEN GATE ESTATES, MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLDEN GATE ESTATES, BIG CORKSCREW ISLAND, WEST TOLL GATE ON
ALLIGATOR ALLEY, ORANGETREE, AND CORKSCREW SWAMP SANCTUARY.
 
319 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HENDRY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN GLADES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 400 AM EDT.

* AT 319 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE REFUGE, OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF
SOUTH BAY, MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLE GLADE, CLEWISTON, PAHOKEE, SOUTH BAY, LAKE HARBOR, OKEELANTA,
HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE REFUGE, ROTENBERGER WILDLIFE REFUGE, BELLE
GLADE CAMP, FREMD VILLAGE-PADGETT ISLAND, AND HARLEM.
 
Looking a bit better on IR, maybe trying to clear a eye out...still struggling to maintain deep convection around the core though.
 
If these recon fixes are accurate then the center is moving much more east than the NHC and cane models had it going...the NHC has it crossing 85W about even with Tampa..if you extrap put those two fixes it does it more like Naples/Ft Myers
 
4:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 26
Location: 24.2°N 86.2°W
Moving: NNE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

​
09/26 2:00 AM23.7N86.5W85MPH971mbN at 12 MPH
 
450 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 530 AM EDT.

* AT 449 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF COPELAND, OR 13 MILES NORTH OF
EVERGLADES CITY, MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AVE MARIA, IMMOKALEE, GOLDEN GATE ESTATES, ORANGETREE, BIG
CORKSCREW ISLAND, CORKSCREW SWAMP SANCTUARY, FAKAHATCHEE STRAND
STATE PRESERVE, PICAYUNE STRAND STATE FOREST, DEEP LAKE,
INTERSECTION I-75 AND EVERGLADES BLVD, AND LAKE TRAFFORD.
 
Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Helene is sending some mixed structural signals this morning. On
one side, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports
that the central pressure has fallen to near 966 mb, and satellite
imagery shows the eye is trying to clear out. On another side, the
aircraft reported concentric eyewalls of 16 and 32 n mi diameter,
with the maximum flight-level winds, 80 kt at 700 mb, occurring
about 50 n mi southeast of the center likely in relation to the
outer eyewall. Based on the central pressure fall and the
available data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt.

The hurricane is starting its expected turn toward the
north-northeast,
 
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