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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

GaWx said:
0Z Euro: 978 mb at Athens, which is 75 miles E of NHC track/similar to UKMET/GFS/CMC and very close to all-time record low SLP at Athens
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With all the globals-GFS, Icon, GEM, and Euro showing a more east track and all nearby Athens, I am concerned that the Upstate of SC will have more issues than currently forecasted in regard to wind.
 
Looks like we’ve fallen about 2-3mb since the last recon mission. With the most recent pass
 
Forevertothee said:
With all the globals-GFS, Icon, GEM, and Euro showing a more east track and all nearby Athens, I am concerned that the Upstate of SC will have more issues than currently forecasted in regard to wind.
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Maybe I’m not recalling correctly, but I can’t recall a storm for which the NHC was notably west of the Euro, GFS, and UKMET for multiple runs.
 
GaWx said:
Maybe I’m not recalling correctly, but I can’t recall a storm for which the NHC was notably west of the Euro, GFS, and UKMET for multiple runs.
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No I can't at least...it's like they are giving no weight to the globals...they are really banking on the cane models having the interaction between Helene and the ULL nailed down...I would think setups like this have high bust potential.
 
Still cant seem to maintain hot towers they go up then come down....got to still be dealing with some dry air in the core. Still Helene is slowly getting stronger and if she can sort her issues she could still bomb out but it doesn't appear she will anytime in the next several hrs.
 
Downeastnc said:
No I can't at least...it's like they are giving no weight to the globals...they are really banking on the cane models having the interaction between Helene and the ULL nailed down...I would think setups like this have high bust potential.
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But even at 18Z, only the HMON was as far W as the NHC, especially over GA!
 
Downeastnc said:
Still cant seem to maintain hot towers they go up then come down....got to still be dealing with some dry air in the core. Still Helene is slowly getting stronger and if she can sort her issues she could still bomb out but it doesn't appear she will anytime in the next several hrs.
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Doesn’t her very large size make it difficult for RI? Because of this along with the dry air I’ve been thinking the H models going way down to 920 were probably way too strong. I’ve been thinking 940 is more reasonable and that’s still a very strong storm. I still think 940-5 is attainable.
 
GaWx said:
But even at 18Z, only the HMON was as far W as the NHC, especially over GA!
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Now just imagine the turn from NE to N happen 6 hrs sooner or later than the models show with a forward speed of 25 mph. The NHC is damn good but this is one of those bite em in the ass setups...
 
Released 2:19AM EDT: 970 mb/slow drop

URNT12 KNHC 260619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092024
A. 26/05:48:10Z
B. 23.56 deg N 086.49 deg W
C. 700 mb 2843 m
D. 970 mb
E. 195 deg 4 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C24
H. 60 kt
I. 315 deg 28 nm 05:39:30Z
J. 064 deg 54 kt
K. 315 deg 36 nm 05:37:00Z
L. 72 kt
M. 131 deg 53 nm 06:03:30Z
N. 230 deg 80 kt
O. 131 deg 47 nm 06:02:00Z
P. 9 C / 3064 m
Q. 14 C / 3046 m
R. 5 C / NA
S. 1234 / 07
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF309 1409A HELENE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 80 KT 131 / 47 NM 06:02:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 311 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR
 
GaWx said:
Doesn’t her very large size make it difficult for RI? Because of this along with the dry air I’ve been thinking the H models going way down to 920 were probably way too strong. I’ve been thinking 940 is more reasonable and that’s still a very strong storm. I still think 940-5 is attainable.
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Sure takes big storms long time to wind up...but the IR loop tells the tale the big flare ups are not sustaining and forming a CDO...if they could then 940 would be the ceiling not the floor.

Currently on IR you can see that the coldest cloud tops are in that one area on the NW side...you want to see the entire core that color, that and the fact it has no apparent eye yet means she is still struggling with her inner core. You can see the dry air to her east spiral into the center.

340c27f7-83df-42c8-857b-595b45ec82e5.jpeg
 
060700 2249N 08539W 6972 03017 9907 +092 +046 224069 070 086 003 00

Peak 10-second average surface wind speed occurring within the encoding interval from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), in kt.

99 mph


1727333685023.png
 
MOV8-4.09L.GIF
 
Downeastnc said:
Also the globals all pretty much had the pressure around 970 at 2am and 960-965 by 8am...all the cane models have her at 940-950 by 8am...right now based on her current look I would give the edge to the globals...
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And yet even with the higher SLP of the globals, they all are flirting with all-time record low SLP in much of C and NE GA!
 
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