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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

Still interesting to see a lot of the models on the eastern side of guidance at land fall. I’m not one to argue with NHC as they are well more versed than most of us. I wonder if they will adjust if the trend continues or stick to their current forecast.
 
Brent said:
It hasnt rapidly strengthened at least not yet pressure only down a few MB since this afternoon

When it rapidly strengthens you'll know
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Definetly! I don't know why he said rapidly intensifying however, sat presentation is starting to look much better, towers going up around the center and starting to wrap around and with the center being closed off I could see it start intensifying pretty quickly soon if it can continue to keep the convection going.
 
jeremyt said:
I was under the impression that it would basically maintain the next 6 or so hours. RI is not expected until tomorrow, correct me if I’m wrong though!
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No you’re right, and honestly it’s probably a bad thing that RI isn’t expected to start until tomorrow. If we were seeing things tighten up tonight and pressures start to drop quickly, there would be a good chance of an EWRC close to landfall
 
Ethan80963 said:
Definetly! I don't know why he said rapidly intensifying however, sat presentation is starting to look much better, towers going up around the center and starting to wrap around and with the center being closed off I could see it start intensifying pretty quickly soon if it can continue to keep the convection going.
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I think it has to get some things right before any real intensification happens. Levi Cowan made that point in the tweet on the other page about the double wind maxima structure. The inner eyewall needs to either take over or completely die off. This could actually take a while or it could happen quickly. We have seen both cases happen over the years.

823C52E6-5AFA-46FA-99AC-926D695E8A44.jpeg
 
jeremyt said:
Still interesting to see a lot of the models on the eastern side of guidance at land fall. I’m not one to argue with NHC as they are well more versed than most of us. I wonder if they will adjust if the trend continues or stick to their current forecast.
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We've been wondering that for the past day. My money is ultimately with the NHC even if it puts mby "out of play"
 
Arcc said:
This is the equivalent of a team boasting at half time that they are whooping the other team yet are only up 10/3.

Helene is not rapidly intensifying. Now it may in the future but not yet.
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I wouldn’t say rapidly intensifying, but it does appear like Helene is steadily improving/intensifying. To a lesser degree because I know it’s not the best representation of whether a hurricane is actually goin thru RI. If you look at the IR loop you can see cold cloud tops firing up and trying to wrap around towards the eastern side. If they can wrap all the way back around to the northern side Helene may possibly start her RI phase. However, I think Levi said it best in his update on YT earlier today. Mother Nature can be unpredictable sometimes.
www.tropicaltidbits.com

IR Satellite Loop for Hurricane HELENE | Tropical Tidbits

Hurricane HELENE IR Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
 
This was posted on FB by Steven Nelson, forecaster at NWS Ptree City office. Pretty sobering stuff:

For PTC and north Georgia friends, here's the latest update on Helene.

tldr; Helene will produce Opal-like (1995) rainfall and flooding and Hugo-like (1989) inland wind impacts. Google those storms and prepare accordingly. Sleep downstairs/away from windows Thursday night. Prepare for extended power outages.

The heavy rain that was forecast began today and will continue in waves tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night, Friday morning ✋. By that point we should have around 6 inches of rain with a 10% chance of seeing ~9 inches. See the map below for even more ridonkulous worst-case/90th percentile amounts in the NE GA/W NC mountains. and box and whisker rainfall plot for Peachtree City. Yea, we need the rain but not so much over so fast please. 🙏 River forecasts from US National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center are taking many points from drought levels to major flood stage (10-50 year flood event) in just 12-24 hours.

The inland wind impacts Thursday night and Friday morning will be unprecedented. In response to a deep upper low to the west, Helene is using that "Fujiwara-slingshot" itself north at 30 mph (Michael's NE motion was only 15 mph at landfall), maintaining hurricane strength perhaps as far north as I-20. This swath of high winds will extend well east all the way to Augusta and into SC. See the wind gust box and whisker plots for Tallahassee, Albany and Peachtree City below. It will be bad here but Tallahassee is really in the crosshairs.

I can't find data on Hugo's forward speed but it's intensity was 140 mph at landfall. It carried hurricane force winds so far inland it destroyed 1/3rd of the harvestable timber in South Carolina (over $1B in 1989 dollars), enough to build 600,000 homes. Michael also produce $1B of forestry loss and $2.5B of agricultural losses and 400K without power. Irma peaked at 1M without power. Helene will likely exceed the wind impacts of Frances, Opal, Irma and Michael and may even surpass Hugo in the amount of inland treefall, agricultural loss, damaged homes and number of customers without power.

There's still time to stock up on water and other necessities tomorrow before the strong winds arrive. Once winds exceed 35 mph, power companies will not respond, at ~50 mph first responders won't either. Prepare for being without power for an extended period. Irma (2017) knocked out power in DeKalb county for 3 days. Forecasts and storm response by first responders, state and local government, Georgia Forestry Commission, power companies and others are much better these days. Most areas won't see outages that long, but some will.

The east winds will hit hard Thursday night. If you have large trees and tree limbs near and especially to the east of rooms where you and your family sleep, I strongly recommend sleeping downstairs and away from any windows. Keep your cell phones charged and near your bed to alert you to any tornadoes or level 2 or 3 flash flood warnings. The flashlight also comes in handy.

If you read this far, please help spread the word to family and friends in the path of this storm, especially those in their later years or that may not use social media or watch the news. A phone call might give you a chance to catch up and let them know you're thinking about them. Stay safe everyone!

Link
 
Arcc said:
This is the equivalent of a team boasting at half time that they are whooping the other team yet are only up 10/3.

Helene is not rapidly intensifying. Now it may in the future but not yet.
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Rees is a hype for clicks dude. So I take what he says with a grain of salt. Balls of steel but hyper.
 
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