Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[Brick Tamland]

You don't need a cat 3 to cause a lot of problems like flooding, power outages, trees down, and other damage. Fran was a cat 3 when it made landfall, but barely a hurricane when it went through the Triangle and still caused extensive damage here.

 

[mrdaddyman]

Latest Euro AI is way East:

 

[Metwannabe]

Latest Euro AI is way East:

View attachment 151893

Almost same track HRRR takes, fwiw

 

[lizajane]

You don't need a cat 3 to cause a lot of problems like flooding, power outages, trees down, and other damage. Fran was a cat 3 when it made landfall, but barely a hurricane when it went through the Triangle and still caused extensive damage here.

Let's not forget PTC 8. We're still recovering.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Let's not forget PTC 8. We're still recovering.

And the tornadoes from Debby.

 

[crecre9]

Has anyone seen any eye temperature reading from recon recently? I see a 27.4 C at the surface, but with 53 kt winds, so that wasn't even the eye.

 

[Ethan80963]

FWIW and I know it is the NAM but it does have it slower and more east and somewhat stronger at 21hr. IE 948mb vs. 954mb last run. I wouldnt look at the strength as much as location and timing with the NAM but it is within 24hrs so its probably more accurate at this time verses a few days ago with the bullish sub 900mb runs. It also did initilize as a 974mb so about what we currently see.

Edit: tad east, slower, and does show some weakening upon approach

 

[Brick Tamland]

Already had a tornado in Blowing Rock today and now this. Never heard of tornadoes here in all my life being in NC.

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[BullCityWx]

Latest Euro AI is way East:

View attachment 151893

 

[Metwannabe]

Wow

 

[Triplephase93]

Radar is still not impressive. Dry air still factoring in?

 

[BullCityWx]

Most of Madison County already without power tonight. If it’s struggling now and we’re 36 hours away from the worst

 

[vtrap90]

Will the bigger ring become the eye wall and contract? Isn't this something similar to a replacement cycle?

 

[RoddyPiper]

Models playing catch up it appears….wouldnt it be something to have a Cat 1 run the east coast….lol

 

[LithiaWx]

Will the bigger ring become the eye wall and contract? Isn't this something similar to a replacement cycle?

I guessed bigger ring contracts. Let’s see! We need a sports book to start taking weather bets.

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Models playing catch up it appears….wouldnt it be something to have a Cat 1 run the east coast….lol

What makes you say or think that man?

 

[ontherocks]

What makes you say or think that man?

Carry on, the thread is low-fill right now because the wise are preparing. Don’t get distracted.
From my years on these forums there is an eerie quiet that develops before actual threats, when the members are not posting every few minutes because it’s real enough to need to do something about it in real life. I do feel that is one of these times. (Not saying scope or dangerousness of impact, just that this isn’t just a non-event, clearly).

 

[SnowwxAtl]

Carry on, the thread is low-fill right now because the wise are preparing. Don’t get distracted.
From my years on these forums there is an eerie quiet that develops before actual threats, when the members are not posting every few minutes because it’s real enough to need to do something about it in real life. I do feel that is one of these times. (Not saying scope or dangerousness of impact, just that this isn’t just a non-event, clearly).

Gotcha...thank you. Was really interested in there logic but I guess it's not one

 

[Ethan80963]