Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Tornado in blowing rock this evening
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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Is there an obs thread, or we keepin it in here? I’m at 1.89 inches today, and it’s just the wee little beginning…..
Obviously they are the experts on this and they do a great job. That said it is suprising to see all of the globals in such agreement within 36 hours and it seeming like the NHC is pretty much dismissing them. I always say it’s hard to bet against the EURO, so we will see if that holds true here.
Stevo, Chris Justus just said the only bust you’ll see in the upstate is under Carol Goldsmith’s blouse. I’d treat this one as serious as I could. Rain and wind=bad news
Board voted it all in one thread
We’re kind of in that range where @Rain Cold tells us to cut modeled wind gusts and rain totals in half but I don’t see him doing that yet. Paging @Rain Cold we need you like we haven’t needed you in a long time
And it inches closer… Not gonna change much for here, but seeing that low pressure would be pretty cool.
Obviously the NHC is leaning on the models above and the Canadian Ensembles.
lizajane
Member
I guess It's big enough to do that.
I believe you have been on the west side all along.
Downeastnc
Member
vsublazer
Member
Currently sitting at 3.67 inches back home. In St. Thomas right now and wondering if we will be able to get back to Atlanta tomorrow evening. It has been calm seas the whole time we have been here since last Friday. Today was the first day of choppy rough seas and windy conditions. The ocean water is definitely like bathtub water. Praying for the best for everyone.
Yeah, I don’t think it will trend this far west but even in the event it does, the worst part would no doubt be well east of here. Like I said, it would be cool to see the surface pressures in the 970’s.
Probably one of the reasons is the size. I wondered earlier if the dry air entrainment into the core would form a large eye and looking at IR, that is probably what is happening. Wont make it impossible to go nuts, but definitely harder. While it may spare the coast, the wind field is gonna grow even more.
Edit: Would also make it harder for dry air to penetrate in the future as well.
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah that plus it's going to be coming ashore in roughly 24 hrs just doesn't give it time...if it can somehow form a smaller core then maybe it can really bomb out but as it stands it's just to big to spin up fast...the upside is chances of 75 plus winds deep inland go down but like you said the overall area of 50-75 is going to be huge especially on the east side.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Slash 'em.
I guess we'll have to see how strong it actually is able to get prior to landfall. I'm thinking Cat 2 maybe Cat 3. Inland up to ATL will be gusty. Im not sold on 80+ mph gusts all the way up there, though. I suppose some spots in western SC could gust info the 50s or 60s, but I wouldn't count on the scary wind maps being right.
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