Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[jrips27]

511 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Atlanta

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-60 mph with gusts to 85 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Friday morning
until Friday afternoon

 

[Metwannabe]

Reminder that the cone is for the center not impacts. So when you realize that it's a little less confusing. You can be outside the cone and still have very serious impacts.

 

[SASQUATCH]

Reminder that the cone is for the center not impacts. So when you realize that it's a little less confusing. You can be outside the cone and still have very serious impacts.

Especially on the east side/right front quadrant.

 

[Arcc]

Hard to tell but I think the cluster eeked west again.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Regarding the NHC track being west of almost all modeling. This is why we still have human beings making forecasts using all available tools and have not yet turned over weather forecasting to AI-generated forecast products.

That said, I'm, surprised they haven't mentioned the reasoning in the discussions as they usually do.

 

[TerryInTucker]

I already have half a foot of standing water in my yard. This could be catastrophic for the Atl metro.

Same.. paired with a main break at the foot of my driveway. Wish I had a rain gauge!

 

[Chazwin]

Hard to tell but I think the cluster eeked west again.

View attachment 151852

Nah… it’s pretty much locked in the last few runs

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Wind Gusts to 105 mph here according to FFC.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Not sure if this has been shared, but this can give you an idea to zoom in on your area with respect the storm track & trajectory.

Enjoy!

Live Weather Satellite Map | Zoom Earth

Near real-time global weather satellite images. Updated every 10 minutes across the US.

zoom.earth

 

[mydoortotheworld]

Another insane map to save

 

[lj0109]

Entire State of SC is now under a Tropical Storm Warning with the latest updated package....that's a first

 

[Henry2326]

Wind Gusts to 105 mph here according to FFC.

Theoretically, on the east side that close to the path, and based on the HWRF and HMON, it should be a bit higher than that. I would say 115-120, if it comes in at landfall as cat4/5, and you are 6 hours later.

 

[Arcc]

Regarding the NHC track being west of almost all modeling. This is why we still have human beings making forecasts using all available tools and have not yet turned over weather forecasting to AI-generated forecast products.

That said, I'm, surprised they haven't mentioned the reasoning in the discussions as they usually do.

Gonna be certainly fun to watch to see what line of thinking is correct here.

 

[Henry2326]

Entire State of SC is now under a Tropical Storm Warning with the latest updated package....that's a first

That feels like a "cover my butt" reaction.

 

[severestorm]

Still really struggling with the dry air it seems.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Theoretically, on the east side that close to the path, and based on the HWRF and HMON, it should be a bit higher than that. I would say 115-120, if it comes in at landfall as cat4/5, and you are 6 hours later.

I guess it just depends on how how strong it is at landfall and whether its strengthening or weakening at landfall.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[SASQUATCH]

Once she gets to about 25°N, I bet she ramps up quickly.

 

[lexxnchloe]

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KFFC_loop.gif?refreshed=1727300582408

 

[severestorm]

Once she gets to about 25°N, I bet she ramps up quickly.

The shear to the N is the wildcard. This can be easily shredded.