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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

Looks like Recon is headed back towards center let's see if pressure has continued to drop..
 
NCSNOW said:
Saw that water temps are 85-87. Thats Bath water and this thing is just gonna crawl and feed off that.
Click to expand...

The issue here is however it will be moving quite slow over very shallow shelf waters next to the coastline and it won't take long for Harvey to upwell itself over those at the speed it's moving so it's very possible he gets knocked down a tad right before hitting.
 
Storm5 said:
Sad when JB spends all morning talking about how right he is and has been all week instead of actually contributing his knowledge


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Click to expand...

He doesn't have that much knowledge to contribute to begin with other than incessant babblings about how this is similar to some 1950s hurricane.
 
Eye about to clear out....
meso1_13_20170825130425.jpg
 
throwing darts this am??? NC State should be pretty good this year honestly . Sorry back on topic ....


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Storm5 said:
throwing darts this am??? NC State should be pretty good this year honestly . Sorry back on topic ....


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Click to expand...
Lol I deleted it to keep it on topic and didn't want to piss Webb or SD off :cool:
 
Storm5 said:
Inner wall looks like it's weakening. I bet pressure drops stop soon as the outer wall takes over


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Click to expand...

If anything the pressure drop will likely begin more in earnest once the inner eyewall collapses, it's actually remarkable it's been intensifying like this with concentric eyewalls
 
Storm5 said:
Sad when JB spends all morning talking about how right he is and has been all week instead of actually contributing his knowledge


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Click to expand...
Wow, that is just sad. Just as bad as that hypist from NY. I do agree about the weakening of the outer eyewall, but that could mean we could have capped out strenght, or could mean we will see RI midday today or tonight when it redevelops.
 
Keep in mind the pressure you see at every point along the planes' path on tropical tidbits as it crosses the eye is extrapolated MSLP from the HH aircraft altitude & is usually less accurate than the dropsondes they send into the eye. The last dropsonde measured about 950mb MSLP, which is a few mb higher than the extrapolated MSLP.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The issue here is however it will be moving quite slow over very shallow shelf waters next to the coastline and it won't take long for Harvey to upwell itself over those at the speed it's moving so it's very possible he gets knocked down a tad right before hitting.
Click to expand...
From what I heard and understand upwelling should not be much of an issue. As you pointed out it's not very deep in that area. Even at its deepest point around the shelf the water temperatures are still 80+ degrees.
 
Harvey slowing down, i really wonder how much of a landfall he will make? I bet it rides the coast towards Texas/La. I also wonder if Harvey gets tuged more east putting La in greater threat?
 
ncskywarn said:
From what I heard and understand upwelling should not be much of an issue. As you pointed out it's not very deep in that area. Even at its deepest point around the shelf the water temperatures are still 80+ degrees.
Click to expand...

I think it will be an issue esp when you have a TC moving at Harvey's pace over water < 100m in depth. The depth of the shelf waters is only a few tens of meters, it won't take long for those waters to cool substantially on the order of 5F or more due to turbulent mixing and upwelling induced by Harvey and they could cool even more...
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 251329
AF305 1709A HARVEY HDOB 41 20170825
132000 2624N 09443W 6964 03097 0001 +088 //// 187057 058 041 004 01
132030 2624N 09441W 6967 03098 9993 +093 //// 183059 061 039 004 01
132100 2624N 09439W 6967 03100 //// +092 //// 178055 060 041 003 01
132130 2624N 09437W 6967 03102 9990 +095 //// 179051 054 040 006 01
132200 2624N 09435W 6965 03108 0000 +097 +097 177052 054 043 010 00
132230 2624N 09433W 6967 03106 0011 +094 //// 177051 052 042 017 05
132300 2624N 09432W 6965 03111 //// +079 //// 176058 059 /// /// 05
132330 2626N 09431W 6972 03104 //// +087 //// 172051 058 041 004 01
132400 2629N 09432W 6964 03112 9982 +103 +094 172052 054 042 003 00
132430 2631N 09432W 6970 03107 0009 +098 //// 160054 055 041 006 01
132500 2633N 09432W 6966 03112 //// +095 //// 161051 052 041 005 01
132530 2635N 09432W 6967 03111 9991 +098 +096 162053 053 041 003 01
132600 2637N 09432W 6967 03111 9995 +098 +090 165053 053 041 002 00
132630 2639N 09432W 6966 03112 9990 +100 +088 165052 053 042 001 00
132700 2642N 09432W 6966 03112 9991 +102 +082 163053 053 040 002 00
132730 2644N 09432W 6967 03112 9989 +104 +078 162052 053 040 001 00
132800 2646N 09432W 6966 03112 9986 +106 +075 163053 054 040 000 00
132830 2648N 09432W 6967 03111 9989 +105 +078 157055 056 040 002 00
132900 2650N 09432W 6967 03112 9991 +103 +078 154058 058 038 003 00
132930 2652N 09432W 6967 03113 0000 +097 +082 154058 059 036 001 00
$$
;
 
The dropsonde that found 949mb pressure in the center of Harvey is really about 947-948 due to the 10 kt winds it found near the surface. A good approximation for dropsondes is to adjust the MSLP down about 1mb per every 5 knots of wind
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 251329
AF305 1709A HARVEY HDOB 41 20170825
132000 2624N 09443W 6964 03097 0001 +088 //// 187057 058 041 004 01
132030 2624N 09441W 6967 03098 9993 +093 //// 183059 061 039 004 01
132100 2624N 09439W 6967 03100 //// +092 //// 178055 060 041 003 01
132130 2624N 09437W 6967 03102 9990 +095 //// 179051 054 040 006 01
132200 2624N 09435W 6965 03108 0000 +097 +097 177052 054 043 010 00
132230 2624N 09433W 6967 03106 0011 +094 //// 177051 052 042 017 05
132300 2624N 09432W 6965 03111 //// +079 //// 176058 059 /// /// 05
132330 2626N 09431W 6972 03104 //// +087 //// 172051 058 041 004 01
132400 2629N 09432W 6964 03112 9982 +103 +094 172052 054 042 003 00
132430 2631N 09432W 6970 03107 0009 +098 //// 160054 055 041 006 01
132500 2633N 09432W 6966 03112 //// +095 //// 161051 052 041 005 01
132530 2635N 09432W 6967 03111 9991 +098 +096 162053 053 041 003 01
132600 2637N 09432W 6967 03111 9995 +098 +090 165053 053 041 002 00
132630 2639N 09432W 6966 03112 9990 +100 +088 165052 053 042 001 00
132700 2642N 09432W 6966 03112 9991 +102 +082 163053 053 040 002 00
132730 2644N 09432W 6967 03112 9989 +104 +078 162052 053 040 001 00
132800 2646N 09432W 6966 03112 9986 +106 +075 163053 054 040 000 00
132830 2648N 09432W 6967 03111 9989 +105 +078 157055 056 040 002 00
132900 2650N 09432W 6967 03112 9991 +103 +078 154058 058 038 003 00
132930 2652N 09432W 6967 03113 0000 +097 +082 154058 059 036 001 00
$$
;
 
Storm5 said:
Extrapolated as Webber was talking about . Dropsonde showed 949 . Either way it's strengthening lol
Click to expand...

Webberweather53 said:
The dropsonde that found 949mb pressure in the center of Harvey is really about 947-948 due to the 10 kt winds it found near the surface. A good approximation for dropsondes is to adjust the MSLP down about 1mb per every 5 knots of wind
Click to expand...

See Charlie ^^^^ can I stick my tongue out Bahahahaha.... jk. Really splitting hairs aren't we?

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Something about this storm that makes me think we are not gonna see anymore rapid intensification, just fluctuations.
 
Hurricane Harvey has a classic Fibonacci Spiral look on radar characterized by a nearly continuous, singular spiral band that progressively wraps inward around the center of the tropical cyclone, often leading to several intense, concentric rings of convection surrounding the eye which makes the tropical cyclone inherently very susceptible to multiple eyewall replacement cycle. Thus this fibonacci spiral structure in essence serves to halt intensification as the rings of convection compete for ascent/moisture and in the case of Harvey may allow the wind field to expand while making it more vulnerable than it already is to dry air intrusions...

Current radar out of Brownsville
BRO.N0Q.20170825.1404.gif

Simple schematic of a fibonacci spiral
FibonacciSpiral.png
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 251409
AF305 1709A HARVEY HDOB 45 20170825
140000 2706N 09520W 6963 03077 9980 +091 +091 136062 064 045 015 00
140030 2704N 09521W 6968 03069 9970 +103 +103 145059 062 047 015 00
140100 2703N 09523W 6968 03068 9962 +106 +106 141063 067 046 013 03
140130 2702N 09524W 6963 03066 9942 +095 +091 143067 067 046 010 00
140200 2701N 09525W 6969 03056 9934 +099 +086 141069 069 045 002 00
140230 2700N 09526W 6967 03053 9932 +095 +091 140066 069 047 003 00
140300 2659N 09528W 6970 03046 9932 +091 +089 140068 070 047 003 00
140330 2658N 09529W 6967 03043 9922 +091 +088 141073 074 049 003 01
140400 2657N 09530W 6967 03039 9921 +092 +088 140075 076 050 004 01
140430 2656N 09531W 6969 03030 9916 +090 +081 139079 080 052 003 00
140500 2654N 09533W 6967 03025 9902 +096 +081 138082 083 055 004 00
140530 2653N 09534W 6962 03023 9899 +092 +089 139083 084 057 006 00
140600 2652N 09535W 6969 03006 9895 +093 +093 137087 091 059 008 00
140630 2651N 09536W 6967 02996 9895 +087 +087 138089 090 062 013 03
140700 2650N 09537W 6976 02977 9885 +086 +086 139092 092 066 020 03
140730 2649N 09539W 6965 02976 9873 +090 +090 135095 096 070 020 00
140800 2648N 09540W 6965 02958 9861 +091 +091 134095 097 070 039 00
140830 2647N 09541W 6990 02923 9824 +107 //// 141093 094 082 014 01
140900 2646N 09542W 6967 02933 9799 +113 +113 141092 093 083 011 00
140930 2645N 09543W 6970 02911 9787 +111 +111 142093 095 083 016 00
$$
;
 
I think this hits strong cat 4/border cat 5 tonight. Has every reason in its favor and RI is still happening. No pro just my opinion. That loop current and bath water, topography of land perfect enviroment. Sometimes concentric bands will choke off a storm preventing RI as oppossed to spiral banding. And as webb has pointed out spiral banding can work in favor of RI and work against it as well ( against more likely in most cases). Just think when this thing hugs up against the coast tonight its gonna tighten up like no ones business and this gives it the big nudge toward the Cat 4/5 threshhold line.
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 251419
AF305 1709A HARVEY HDOB 46 20170825
141000 2644N 09545W 6976 02887 9754 +121 +121 148093 095 081 025 00
141030 2643N 09546W 6976 02868 9722 +127 +127 146087 093 082 014 00
141100 2642N 09547W 6970 02854 9699 +130 +130 152092 094 082 015 03
141130 2641N 09548W 6979 02817 9659 +134 //// 152089 091 086 008 01
141200 2640N 09550W 6977 02795 9620 +140 //// 154086 088 086 008 01
141230 2640N 09551W 6961 02778 9578 +142 +142 150084 088 084 006 00
141300 2639N 09553W 6959 02737 9542 +144 +144 145075 083 079 009 03
141330 2638N 09555W 6981 02682 9482 +151 +151 137040 063 063 008 01
141400 2637N 09556W 6965 02696 9465 +163 +130 133019 030 031 002 00
141430 2636N 09558W 6967 02692 9468 +161 +115 147004 012 019 001 03
141500 2634N 09559W 6970 02692 9476 +156 +120 307004 009 020 001 00
141530 2633N 09600W 6966 02707 9485 +157 +123 318015 019 020 002 03
141600 2633N 09602W 6966 02719 9498 +152 +133 336025 028 /// /// 03
141630 2635N 09602W 6963 02714 9491 +152 +144 344020 029 /// /// 03
141700 2635N 09600W 6970 02694 9473 +161 +123 278004 012 022 002 03
141730 2637N 09559W 6966 02691 9462 +165 +118 162008 012 021 000 03
141800 2638N 09558W 6967 02690 9461 +166 +112 124020 025 020 001 03
141830 2640N 09558W 6968 02692 9467 +159 +143 114042 052 045 003 00
141900 2642N 09558W 6969 02718 9522 +150 +150 112074 084 074 014 00
141930 2644N 09558W 6970 02756 9579 +138 +138 110086 089 077 007 00
$$
;
 
NCSNOW said:
I think this hits strong cat 4/border cat 5 tonight. Has every reason in its favor and RI is still happening. No pro just my opinion. That loop current and bath water, topography of land perfect enviroment. Sometimes concentric bands will choke off a storm preventing RI as oppossed to spiral banding. And as webb has pointed out spiral banding can work in favor of RI and work against it as well ( against more likely in most cases). Just think when this thing hugs up against the coast tonight its gonna tighten up like no ones business and this gives it the big nudge toward the Cat 4/5 threshhold line.
Click to expand...

I think a strong cat 4-5 is very unrealistic atm, intensification is liable to be slow, if at all here because of the multiple concentric rings around the eye that are trying to choke off the inner core. This storm is effectively unraveling like we've seen countless times in the past several years, henceforth the lack of major hurricane landfalls on the US coast.... It could still intensify into a mid grade category 3 but I don't see this getting much beyond that.
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 251429
AF305 1709A HARVEY HDOB 47 20170825
142000 2646N 09558W 6967 02798 9603 +138 +123 108090 090 084 005 00
142030 2647N 09558W 6963 02834 9648 +127 +125 109090 091 085 006 00
142100 2649N 09558W 6971 02853 9695 +128 +128 107089 094 084 011 00
142130 2651N 09558W 6992 02848 9741 +125 +125 105089 095 084 032 00
142200 2653N 09558W 6969 02899 9773 +118 +118 106097 100 083 030 03
142230 2655N 09558W 6957 02928 9785 +114 +114 103093 094 081 021 00
142300 2656N 09558W 6969 02937 9808 +110 +110 104093 094 076 012 00
142330 2658N 09558W 6952 02971 9832 +114 +114 104096 099 071 018 03
142400 2700N 09558W 6972 02962 9856 +105 +105 104096 098 067 012 00
142430 2702N 09558W 6964 02990 9869 +091 +090 103096 098 065 010 00
142500 2703N 09558W 6967 02997 9893 +091 +091 101093 096 061 009 00
142530 2705N 09558W 6963 03013 9905 +093 //// 101087 092 058 008 01
142600 2707N 09558W 6973 03015 9915 +089 //// 101081 086 055 005 01
142630 2709N 09558W 6965 03030 //// +087 //// 101081 082 054 005 01
142700 2710N 09558W 6967 03036 //// +090 //// 102081 082 054 003 01
142730 2712N 09558W 6965 03046 //// +092 //// 104078 080 051 003 01
142800 2714N 09558W 6971 03046 9933 +095 +088 105075 077 048 003 00
142830 2716N 09558W 6969 03057 9938 +095 +086 107071 074 048 004 00
142900 2717N 09558W 6963 03068 9948 +092 +080 109067 068 047 005 00
142930 2719N 09558W 6970 03062 9953 +093 +091 112061 066 046 008 00
$$
;
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think a strong cat 4-5 is very unrealistic atm, intensification is liable to be slow, if at all here because of the multiple concentric rings around the eye that are trying to choke off the inner core. This storm is effectively unraveling like we've seen countless times in the past several years, henceforth the lack of major hurricane landfalls on the US coast.... It could still intensify into a mid grade category 3 but I don't see this getting much beyond that.
Click to expand...
I agree on that. This thing is too close to landfall, and doesn't seem too far from a cat 3, so it should reach that state, but otherwise it's already interacting with land on its outer side, so I can't see anymore RI occurring.
 
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