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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

Well then
09_L_gefs_latest.png
 
JB just referenced Celia, the last major to hit Corpus Christie, 1970, went from a Cat 1to a 4 in 24 hours
" Harvey could mimic"
 
What cat is the Euro showing for the first and second landfall?
 
Brick Tamland said:
What cat is the Euro showing for the first and second landfall?
Click to expand...

From my end, can't tell off pressure alone. But likely majors on both. The rainfall + surge would be catastrophic.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Most bizarre track I've ever seen!
Can't wait to get home and watch TWC, the hurricane experts! I miss John Hope! ;)
Click to expand...
there is a trough type situation that is grabbing it and shooting it off back to the gulf. the GFS and Euro differ, but the Euro has it's own EPS to support it and I'll always take h500 euro over the gfs.

The GFS does have the same feature, but it's not as far South or West to influence it as much as the Euro's depiction of a slower, further Southern placement.
 
Shawn said:
Here is the 12z EPS:
DIBWi4g_UQAAv_Jc_M.jpg.jpg
Click to expand...
Lots of change in tracks from run to run on the models!? This morning had it dying off to the the west parts of TX, now it's moving N through AR/TN after a crazy loop de loop!? Maybe models are just being thrown off by its RI, could that affect the tracks they are spitting out!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Lots of change in tracks from run to run on the models!? This morning had it dying off to the the west parts of TX, now it's moving N through AR/TN after a crazy loop de loop!? Maybe models are just being thrown off by its RI, could that affect the tracks they are spitting out!?
Click to expand...

The EPS never had it dying in west Texas. It's been pretty consistent with the track up through Arkansas Louisiana and Mississippi


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NHC 5pm, over water at day 5

The intensity forecast after 48
hours is tricky because it all depends on how far inland Harvey
moves into Texas. If it stays stalls closer to the coast, as recent
model trends have suggested, then the cyclone may be able to
maintain a higher intensity with a greater proportion of its
circulation remaining over water.
 
Brent said:
NHC 5pm, over water at day 5

The intensity forecast after 48
hours is tricky because it all depends on how far inland Harvey
moves into Texas. If it stays stalls closer to the coast, as recent
model trends have suggested, then the cyclone may be able to
maintain a higher intensity with a greater proportion of its
circulation remaining over water.
Click to expand...
A strong major hurricane over the coast would wash anything right on the coast away. That sounds like a horrible, but possible solution.
 
Brent said:
NHC 5pm, over water at day 5

The intensity forecast after 48
hours is tricky because it all depends on how far inland Harvey
moves into Texas. If it stays stalls closer to the coast, as recent
model trends have suggested, then the cyclone may be able to
maintain a higher intensity with a greater proportion of its
circulation remaining over water.
Click to expand...

Sounds like the euro solution


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The eye is very compact. As ARCC already said hang on. Things could get ugly overnight


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The gfs and euro are worlds apart at 500mb. The gfs might try and leave it this run instead of pulling it NE
dc314f51fbe5d59f3681a2acfce50b3c.png



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GFS much quicker and less deep with troughing feature vs Euro. It will likely die in some sort around TX this run.
 
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