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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

I would say landfall btwn corpus and Galveston imo as of now. Cat 2-3 Stronger now, should equal a closer hit up the Texas coast
 
At least we all know the NAM 3KM is too strong. Laugh away. Now per the recent models, I expect a strong cat 2 at landfall at minimum unless something slows this down.
nam3km_ir_scus_41.png

nam3km_mslp_wind_scus_32.png
 
Recon about to make a pass through the northeastern semi circle, arguably the strongest part of Harvey atm, although microwave imagery suggests the southwestern quadrant is also not to be outdone w/ a massive hot tower evident...
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 241216
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 21 20170824
120700 2355N 09146W 8428 01524 0038 +175 +160 156044 044 035 002 00
120730 2357N 09146W 8426 01526 0040 +173 +157 155044 045 034 003 00
120800 2359N 09146W 8429 01524 0039 +177 +151 155045 046 034 003 00
120830 2401N 09145W 8431 01523 0040 +177 +159 153043 045 033 002 00
120900 2402N 09145W 8428 01526 0037 +186 +143 147043 045 034 003 00
120930 2404N 09144W 8433 01519 0038 +184 +143 138047 048 034 004 00
121000 2406N 09144W 8429 01527 0042 +177 +151 139048 050 033 005 00
121030 2408N 09144W 8428 01527 0042 +173 +157 145045 047 034 005 00
121100 2410N 09143W 8429 01528 0045 +174 +150 148043 045 037 005 00
121130 2412N 09143W 8424 01532 0043 +179 +145 147043 044 037 005 00
121200 2414N 09143W 8433 01524 0043 +181 +142 148045 045 034 006 00
121230 2416N 09142W 8428 01533 0044 +180 +144 149045 045 033 004 00
121300 2417N 09142W 8432 01527 0047 +177 +152 149044 045 033 004 00
121330 2419N 09141W 8426 01535 0049 +176 +145 149044 044 031 004 00
121400 2421N 09141W 8430 01532 0053 +171 +146 149044 044 030 005 00
121430 2423N 09141W 8429 01535 0060 +162 +157 149044 045 031 005 00
121500 2425N 09140W 8429 01537 0063 +160 +153 148044 045 031 005 00
121530 2427N 09140W 8429 01538 0061 +164 +152 148045 045 030 003 00
121600 2429N 09139W 8429 01539 0063 +166 +145 148044 045 030 003 00
121630 2431N 09139W 8430 01539 0066 +165 +149 145045 045 025 005 00
$$
;
 
Storm5 said:
Don't tell Spann he said it's not expected to become a hurricane
bfc7cda88369c9b33d3808b06e6ab20b.png



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He should stick to snow, his area of expertise!
 
Harvey definitely bears more similarities to a western Pacific TC than a stereotypical Atlantic TC, with an unusually low MSLP for this caliber of the wind as would be expected given the area it formed in... The western Caribbean and Yucatán are notorious for spitting out these monstrous monsoonal esque TCs and if they're given an opportunity to intensify there's not a whole lot you can do to stop them.
 
Latest vortex message just posted, shows eye wall open on NW quadrant, eye and eye wall temp difference is around +4c, that is up from this early morning hrs of around +1C. He is intensifying quickly. I say we have a monster out there. I wouldn't be surprised if the "Loop" would happen little sooner than modeled, which will determine how strong it will get after merging back in the gulf. If t does.
 
Recon found some brief winds of 67 mph through a part unflagged, but the surrounding area was flagged. The third column from the last is the surface winds in knots for those who don't know how to read. 03 means winds are inaccurate and 01 mean some inaccuracy that I forgot.

124800 2422N 09225W 8435 01506 0048 +166 +166 116039 041 036 041 00
124830 2421N 09226W 8426 01518 0044 +166 +166 112046 048 038 049 00
124900 2420N 09227W 8459 01482 0041 +172 +172 115050 054 030 067 03
124930 2418N 09229W 8407 01523 0026 +179 +179 113056 058 059 065 00
125000 2417N 09230W 8402 01535 0034 +179 +179 115039 056 061 050 03
125030 2416N 09231W 8427 01513 0033 +177 //// 133043 045 061 016 01
125100 2415N 09233W 8437 01496 0020 +177 +177 138043 045 039 006 00
125130 2414N 09234W 8420 01511 0019 +178 //// 140044 045 034 005 01
 
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