Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

[NWTENN]

Are there any obvious inhibiting factors to keep this thing from really bombing out? It looks nearly perfect this morning on visible satellite.

 

[accu35]

Beautiful

 

[Webberweather53]

Are there any obvious inhibiting factors to keep this thing from really bombing out? It looks nearly perfect this morning on visible satellite.

At this point all we can hope for is Harvey undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle before hitting Texas and ingests a helping of dry air into its western semi circle

 

[ForsythSnow]

NE Eyewall was about the same as the SE Eyewall.

 

[accu35]

Down to 984

 

[deltadog03]

Well I would say near land there is always dry air to worry about, but until then, it’s got some very warm water and an upper level anticyclone...... so it could super be off to the races.

 

[NCSNOW]

Saw this on another board. to good to pass up. Not happening but you dont see this everyday in model fantasy world. Like a sub 880 pressure.

 

[Brent]

Shocking

 

[Snowfan]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241326
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 28 20170824
131700 2321N 09340W 8455 01478 0016 +175 +167 328035 037 027 001 00
131730 2319N 09341W 8422 01512 0017 +175 +156 329034 035 028 001 00
131800 2318N 09342W 8429 01505 0019 +176 +150 327032 034 025 002 00
131830 2317N 09343W 8429 01502 0018 +175 +154 328030 032 024 002 00
131900 2316N 09345W 8432 01500 0016 +172 +151 327028 030 025 003 00
131930 2314N 09346W 8420 01504 0016 +167 +152 330030 032 024 004 01
132000 2313N 09347W 8437 01489 0015 +170 +155 325028 029 025 002 00
132030 2312N 09348W 8429 01501 0016 +168 +159 322029 029 024 002 00
132100 2311N 09350W 8432 01500 0019 +169 +148 323026 029 024 002 00
132130 2310N 09351W 8425 01505 0020 +167 +142 327025 026 022 002 00
132200 2308N 09352W 8431 01499 0018 +170 +146 326025 026 022 001 00
132230 2307N 09353W 8429 01502 0020 +168 +149 326026 027 021 001 00
132300 2306N 09355W 8434 01500 0021 +168 +159 322025 027 020 001 00
132330 2305N 09356W 8428 01505 0022 +168 +156 325026 027 022 001 00
132400 2304N 09357W 8432 01504 0021 +172 +149 324025 027 021 001 00
132430 2302N 09358W 8432 01504 0023 +175 +140 323024 025 020 001 00
132500 2301N 09400W 8430 01506 0021 +177 +136 322024 025 020 001 00
132530 2300N 09401W 8432 01506 0022 +180 +134 325024 025 019 001 00
132600 2259N 09402W 8430 01507 0023 +179 +133 328025 025 019 001 00
132630 2258N 09403W 8428 01511 0025 +175 +143 327024 025 018 001 00
$$
;

 

[ForsythSnow]

Saw this on another board. to good to pass up. Not happening but you dont see this everyday in model fantasy world. Like a sub 880 pressure.

Posted that a page back as well as the satellite imagery. It's just so laughable that a model cam even do that.

 

[accu35]

Nowcasting time

 

[Arcc]

At this point all we can hope for is Harvey undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle before hitting Texas and ingests a helping of dry air into its western semi circle

Yeah, worst case IMO is if this levels off as say a strong Cat 1/weak 2 to only RI right at landfall. To be honest the best case may be for Harvey to boom up to Cat 4 or so and then as you said have a ERC hit right before landfall.

 

[Webberweather53]

Gas prices are gonna definitely take a hit because of Harvey, probably wouldn't be a bad idea to fill up before prices go up a butload.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Any chance Harvey avoids a US landfall and makes landfall in extreme NE Mexico ?

 

[Arcc]

In other news, I love watching strong convection band around a developing eye. Can I do a Abrams or Rainbow Weed Guy and cry about it here?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Gas prices are gonna definitely take a hit because of Harvey, probably wouldn't be a bad idea to fill up before prices go up a butload.

Yep, I can see gas going from the lower $2 you to the mid $2 during this storm, and especially for it goes off and back over most of the oil rigs out there.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Any chance Harvey avoids a US landfall and makes landfall in extreme NE Mexico ?

I think at this strength, it won't go further west that expected. Plus, it is still a bit east of forecast. But then again, Webber will likely have a better answer.

 

[Weatherlover92]

I remember when Hurricane Rita hit, gas prices went up to $4 - $5/gal. There was sure large concern about gas shortages that the gov. here in GA at the time closed schools for about 2 days in the Atlanta metro area. However, in that situation I think the oil rigs in the GOM were evacuated and shutdown prior to Rita approaching the Gulf coast.

 

[NWTENN]

And with the devastation brought by Katrina, the weather world was gun shy at that point too, and rightfully so. I'll be really surprised if there's not a notable spike in gas prices for a while.

 

[Webberweather53]

I remember when Hurricane Rita hit, gas prices went up to $4 - $5/gal. There was sure large concern about gas shortages that the gov. here in GA at the time closed schools for about 2 days in the Atlanta metro area. However, in that situation I think the oil rigs in the GOM were evacuated and shutdown prior to Rita approaching the Gulf coast.

Luckily we have more domestic, private oil sources now than we did then but gas is still going to skyrocket