Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

[Brent]

What does the UKMET do with it?

Near Matagorda around 970 mb shifted from Galveston

 

[deltadog03]

from what I can tell off the CIMMS site is that there is now a HUGE upper anticyclone overhead now. If that is truly the case, I would imagine we see the very nice convective burst continue

 

[deltadog03]

This is badas*
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate....1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=1&s=rammb-slider

 

[deltadog03]

Just as we go through will all weak/strengthening tropical cyclones its going to find the deepest convection and migrate toward it. I don't know if its moving north, I doubt it, but its def. re-adjusting Northward right now into that super cold/deep storm burst.

 

[Brent]

definitely stronger on recon, maybe those winds earlier weren't a fluke

 

[deltadog03]

definitely stronger on recon, maybe those winds earlier weren't a fluke

the wind shift was almost a crazy jump north from last pass...I always find it cool to see how the center jumps around in these types of situations

 

[Brent]

can add the HWRF to the list of models going back into the Gulf, south of Galveston moving east and strengthening at day 5

 

[stormcentral]

Noaa planes indicate harvey a little stronger as of the 1AM Advisory 45 mph winds moving northwest at @7 mph.

 

[Brent]

72 to 96 hours the Euro is just sitting on top of Corpus Christi

120 hours back in the Gulf

144 hours blowing up hurricane off Galveston moving towards LA

goes inland next Wednesday morning in SW LA around 979 mb

 

[accu35]

We have a pretty good agreement on the "Loop" back in the gulf. I would advise anyone along the Texas and central gulf coast to be alert and ready for any impact. This could be a serious situation, especially the amount of rain its gonna cause. Euro also done the loop again, very persistent modeling.

 

[accu35]

Harvey down to 500 mb now. Extrapolated sea-level pressure: 500.2 mb. Wow!!!!

 

[Arcc]

What has happened to Harvey overnight? It went from a mess to looking almost like a hurricane....

That is incredible. May actually be one of the fastest organizations I've seen.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah I gotta admit I seriously can't believe how much Harvey intensified overnight, actually really close to yesterday's HWRF forecast where it showed Harvey becoming a 991mb TS by morning...

 

[Metwannabe]

6z GFS just brought 936 cane into Tx and then just parked it there... epic flooding

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[Storm5]

06z gfs leaves Harvey behind to rain itself out around south Texas


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[Storm5]

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[Snowfan]

Looks like the GFS has trended to the NAM. The GFS has left the building.

 

[Webberweather53]

HWRF verbatim is a borderline category 2-3 hurricane landfall near Port O' Connor

 

[Webberweather53]

0z Euro not even close wrt initializing Harvey's intensity, even thru 24 HR where it shows Harvey strengthening it's still weaker than it is now... I know it's a global model but Harvey is a large TC and the European has the highest resolution of any global model (9 km), if any global should initialize Harvey right it's the Euro...

 

[Webberweather53]

Maximum rainfall is often underdone for TCs in NWP, but the Euro is spitting out upwards of 3 feet of rain in southeastern TX.