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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

ICON looks to be a touch south initially, but then takes a more northerly track along the SC/NC line.
 
Rain Cold said:
RGEM and NAM both coming in farther south than their 6z runs. Looks like as soon as they make landfall, they pretty much spin wsw and then straight SW. Maybe good news for those of us farther inland.
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Interesting NHC tracks it just north and along 34N. That would be heavy rains up to I-40 I would think.
 
Recon also starting to show a WNW movement now (even if its just a short term thing)
 
And another one, although same cell as before...

Tornado Warning
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1131 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

NCC013-137-131545-
/O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180913T1545Z/
Beaufort NC-Pamlico NC-
1131 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BEAUFORT AND CENTRAL PAMLICO COUNTIES...

At 1131 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Lowland, or 25 miles southeast of River Road, moving
southwest at 40 mph.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wherever these heavy bands north of Florence setup in the piedmont of the Carolinas, get ready for 12-15"+ of rain

View attachment 6343
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Good point Webber, also look out in those areas for Tornados as the storm weakens and continues to move inland. Those North and East of the center passage will be liable to see several Tornados
 
67F92E3B-6D26-4C3B-AB5D-5BB9BC1D4951.png For the Upstate peeps!
 
From the ICON.... still going to be serious and life threatening floods

icon_apcpn_seus_40.png
 
So far GFS almost identical to it's 6z run starts turning west between Morehead and Wilmington..
 
SD said:
I'm conflicted here. I could see being in 10-12 but easily in 1-3

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SD said:
I'm conflicted here. I could see being in 10-12 but easily in 1-3

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Per the GFS you are about to get washed completely away.....
 
12Z gfs hits Myrtle Beach dead-on before turning inland. Prior 3 runs were about 25 miles inland from there fwiw
 
I'm 45 miles inland from Myrtle Beach, what should I expect? Luckily I bought enough supplies to last 3 weeks in case of no power.
 
The 12Z GGEM hour 42 is 50 miles SE of its 0Z run or near Georgetown, SC, right on coast vs Florence, SC, on prior run.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GGEM hour 42 is 50 miles SE of its 0Z run or near Georgetown, SC, right on coast vs Florence, SC, on prior run.
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So that makes it the nam, rgem, and ggem all further south of their prior runs?


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whatalife said:
So that makes it the nam, rgem, and ggem all further south of their prior runs?


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And GFS

Edit: And fwiw JMA well south of prior runs well down in SC (looks like it is S of Columbia though tidbits maps crude)
 
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Bsud said:
What are they basing that off of? The GFS is not showing totals like that for upstate.

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A lot has to do with knowledge of the favored areas in WNC and N SC. With a storm path that the NHC has projected, the northern upstate and WNC would be on the NE side of the storm which is the area that has the highest rainfall. Combine that with the enhanced upslope flow and you get large rain totals.
 
I am interested to see how much more latitude this can gain. looks like its hit a little wall trying to climb the coast a bit. Recon about to punch the center again shortly. Dry air is trying to mix out as well.
 
deltadog03 said:
I am interested to see how much more latitude this can gain. looks like its hit a little wall trying to climb the coast a bit. Recon about to punch the center again shortly. Dry air is trying to mix out as well.
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All models, even including the Euro, get her to just N of 34N tonight and tomorrow morning before any SW turn. So, I think that’s a benchmark of sorts. Will she make it there by then? There’s still plenty of time (18-24 hours) to do so per models.
 
deltadog03 said:
I am interested to see how much more latitude this can gain. looks like its hit a little wall trying to climb the coast a bit. Recon about to punch the center again shortly. Dry air is trying to mix out as well.
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Agreed although most models did show this westward jog and then another brief wnw movement prior to finally stalling and sliding sw
 
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