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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

GaWx said:
So, if someone living in CHS and wanted to know if they're out of the woods and don't need to evacuate, what would you tell them? Help! I've been asked by several there.
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I've told everyone that I know and has asked directly to me... expect 40 to 60mph sustained with gusts to hurricane force at times with rains 6"-12". Also have given them the EURO solution as what you should be preparing for since it shows the worst case scenario.
 
GaWx said:
So, if someone living in CHS wanted to know if they're out of the woods and don't need to evacuate, what would you tell them? Help! I've been asked by several there.
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Thats a tough one, Larry...I would say see how things evolve today. I think the euro is a little to far south...BUT I am not so sure. This might not make is north of 34N (like we talked about earlier)
 
Yeah the difference between the Euro and almost everything else is a mess on the entire South Carolina coast vs just some extra storm tide and thunderstorms (outside NE SC). That's a headache. If I lived just off the coast there, I'd leave based on the Euro for a couple of days just to be safe.
 
deltadog03 said:
Thats a tough one, Larry...I would say see how things evolve today. I think the euro is a little to far south...BUT I am not so sure. This might not make is north of 34N (like we talked about earlier)
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That's where the devil is in the details. Maybe the EURO's SW crawl won't be as extreme... but at the same time, official forecast plots keep her 34°N essentially. All guidance shows a bend to the WSW. Florence not getting past 34°N with what appears to be some WSW component completely throws NHCs plot line off and subtle track differences have significant consequences downstream, inland in the SC Lowcountry and points northward (And westward too). What a nightmare and on a storm without historical precedent.
 
Stormsfury said:
That's where the devil is in the details. Maybe the EURO's SW crawl won't be as extreme... but at the same time, official forecast plots keep her 34°N essentially. All guidance shows a bend to the WSW. Florence not getting past 34°N with what appears to be some WSW component completely throws NHCs plot line off and subtle track differences have significant consequences downstream, inland in the SC Lowcountry and points northward (And westward too). What a nightmare and on a storm without historical precedent.
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Very good points!! @GaWx (Larry) I would say, if your in CHS prepare for a potential landfalling hurricane, and hope it does go north.
 
The best advice I can give is to tell people who are wondering on the SC coasts, is:
"Our most reliable model shows a eerie situation vs other guidance, and it's better to be safe than sorry."
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
What about wind speeds and rain in Georgia based on the Euro?
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Shows winds sustained well below TS force, probably 15 to 25 mph, but gusts could be much higher. Rain isn't too much.
ecmwf_max_gust_georgia_108.png

ecmwf_acc_precip_georgia_108.png
 
deltadog03 said:
I would say that for sure, but almost maybe loosing a bit of latitude..or def. around 265-280
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I'm guessing this is a wobble and that it will resume a WNW motion later this afternoon. Even the Euro doesn't hit its northernmost point til late tonight. However, if she doesn't then the Euro is going to need to start being considered much more heavily instead of being treated as just a left biased outlier
 
GaWx said:
I'm guessing this is a wobble and that it will resume a WNW motion later this afternoon. However, if she doesn't then the Euro is going to need to start being considered much more heavily instead of being treated as just a left biased outlier
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I agree, and that's a hard one to answer because looking at the steering its sandwiched in-between the 2 high's....The one over the SE and north of there looks like its starting to take over more and thats why the NW and maybe even WNW movement has stopped.
 
GaWx said:
I'm guessing this is a wobble and that it will resume a WNW motion later this afternoon. Even the Euro doesn't hit its northernmost point til late tonight. However, if she doesn't then the Euro is going to need to start being considered much more heavily instead of being treated as just a left biased outlier
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Some pro mets were already claiming GFS victory this morning not just here but in general and claimed the euro is useless, etc. clearly it’s too early for that. I personally hope the Euro verifies for NC to keep the heavy rain to our south but of course SC and GA would be in trouble. Nobody wins...
 
I mean it’s one thing to call the Euro an outlier if it’s way off base and slowly moves towards all other guidance but that isn’t happening. Sticking to its guns. And looking at this MIMIC loop it appears Florence has slowed to a crawl and there’s not much of a WNW movement happening atm. With that being said, old glory at the Frying Pan is taking a beating right now
 
36-48 hours out and we still don't know if this is going to track just south of NC/SC line or the GA/SC state line, or something in between. Between Euro, UK, FV3 and GFS pretty much every option is covered, there can only be one winner. I am thinking FV3 wins but deep down hard to bet against the Euro. Navgem is probably closest to Euro track.

FloTracks.gif
 
Looking at the 24hr MIMIC loop it does appear Florence is closing in on 34N. Does the latest Euro reach that latitude? I’m torn. This thing could stall out at any moment or it could keep doing what it’s doing
 
The Euro runs have been running a little south of reality and I think are still barely south. However, the projected Euro track for the current time is near 300 degrees/aiming for Topsail even though it never gets there (WNW) and Flo has been moving 280 or an aim toward the NC/SC border. As a result, the Euro is getting close to no longer being south of reality and will get there shortly if a 290-300 direction doesn't resume soon.

Aside: I haven't seen the 12Z NAVGEM yet at Tidbits.
 
Florence (06L)
noaa_logo_30.png

NOAA9 - Miss. #15 - Atlantic
High Density (4), Dropsonde (3)
Geopotential Height: 13,530 meters (44,390 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 169.2 mb
Location: 288 statute miles (463 km) to the SSE (154°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
Florence (06L)
af_logo_30.png

AF306 - Miss. #16 - Atlantic
High Density (7)
Geopotential Height: 4 meters (13 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 1014.2 mb
Location: 9 statute miles (14 km) to the NW (311°) from Savannah, GA, USA.

Looks like 2 recon runs on-going now?
 
GaWx said:
The Euro runs have been running a little south of reality and I think are still barely south. However, the projected Euro track for the current time is near 300 degrees/aiming for Topsail even though it never gets there (WNW) and Flo has been moving 280 or an aim toward the NC/SC border. As a result, the Euro is getting close to no longer being south of reality and will get there shortly if a 290-300 direction doesn't resume soon.

Aside: I haven't seen the 12Z NAVGEM yet at Tidbits.
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Navgem
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_namer&set=All
 
looks pretty close to not moving much, agreed. I still don't see much movement WNW at all. Almost a solid W
 
Latest HRRR brings it on a W to WNW path to near ILM, but starts heading SW before actual landfall....(end of run at that point)
hrrr_mslp_uv850_seus_20.png
 
malak05 said:
Florence (06L)
noaa_logo_30.png

NOAA9 - Miss. #15 - Atlantic
High Density (4), Dropsonde (3)
Geopotential Height: 13,530 meters (44,390 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 169.2 mb
Location: 288 statute miles (463 km) to the SSE (154°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
Florence (06L)
af_logo_30.png

AF306 - Miss. #16 - Atlantic
High Density (7)
Geopotential Height: 4 meters (13 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 1014.2 mb
Location: 9 statute miles (14 km) to the NW (311°) from Savannah, GA, USA.

Looks like 2 recon runs on-going now?
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1 upper level and 1 low level
 
12Z EPS mean is still calling for a S SC hit with a higher % of the members vs the 0Z now staying offshore before coming back into lower SC. Also, there are now very few, if any, landfalls in GA.
 
Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 52s53 seconds ago
It beat the US modeling on Irma going into Cuba. It beat the US modeling on Joaquin turning west then heading out, .Beat the US modeling on Isidore into Yucatan Beat the US modeling on Sandy Well here we go again, Euro vs the US modeling. Can it do it again?
 
Flash flood watch just hoisted here in WNC. Not sure I've ever seen a flash flood watch covering 3 whole days. NWS calling for 6-10 with possibility of 15 inches near escarpment. Northern part of the county here had 5.5 inches of rain the night before last. The ground is full, the amount of gas in the pumps here, however, are not.
 
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