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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Here's a "side by side" of the ICON maybe 25 mile southward shift, either way pretty negligible. I don't know what to think, so far 18z models not really shifting south, in fact RGEM might be a smidge north. We hear many times as a winter storm approaches that this timeframe not in Euro wheelhouse, not sure if applies here or not.
Rain Cold said:
You were right earlier, the 3K NAM was much farther north. The ICON looks about the same as the last run to me. I didn't do the side by sides, but it basically looked the same. Waiting on the RGEM.
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85d58afbf3a2ea54c19dc2bf43b42228.gif


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Alex said:
Chatham as well. Honestly wasn't expecting it but planned on getting conditions at some point anyway.

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It's funny my forecast from the NWS says "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night and Saturday but not one advisory Lol....
 
Again probably a wobble but last couple frames of radar show a nnw motion, looks almost enough to get it to 34N...
 
metwannabe said:
It's funny my forecast from the NWS says "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night and Saturday but not one advisory Lol....
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Your local folks are likely not used to spelling "tropical" ... just like when there is white falling from the sky here in winter, our NWS says "unknown precip" ... :confused:
 
metwannabe said:
Again probably a wobble but last couple frames of radar show a nnw motion, looks almost enough to get it to 34N...
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Just to add to this and I know this isn't the most accurate way to do this but I used the distance measure on radar scope from center at beginning of loop (20 frames) to the KMHX radar site and it was 87 miles at the end of the run around 77....
 
BHS1975 said:
Probably just trochoidal movements.


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trochoid |ˈtrōkoid|
adjective
1 Anatomy denoting a joint in which one element rotates on its own axis (e.g., the atlas vertebra).
2 Geometry denoting a curve traced by a point on a radius of a circle rotating along a straight line or another circle (a cycloid, epicycloid, or hypocycloid).
3 Zoology having or denoting a form of mollusk shell that is conical with a flat base, like a top shell.
 
The UNC is postponing classes til Sunday 5:30 pm
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
GFS significantly further SW through 30.
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Actually looks to be just about the same track as it's 12z run just quicker so @30 it looks further SW. This run gets there at 0z Sat, 12z wasn't until 18z Sat

For comparison this is the 18z run @30 (0z Sat)
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_6.png


12z run almost same spot, it is the southern most point, 18z Sat
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_10.png
 
metwannabe said:
Actually looks to be just about the same track as it's 12z run just quicker so @30 it looks further SW. This run gets there at 0z Sat, 12z wasn't until 18z Sat

For comparison this is the 18z run @30 (0z Sat)
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_6.png


12z run almost same spot, it is the southern most point, 18z Sat
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_10.png
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Still looks SW to me. You can toggle the total precip map and see it even better.
 
Back to 105

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 76.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Looks like it took a step toward Ukie and Euro. Thoughts?
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Baby steps lol.... overall imo yes but still basically same landfall area as it previous runs. Funny this run shifts the heaviest precip sw but imby I picked up more on this run, basically because it has a little further north LF then the Euro with an expanding precip shield.
qpf_acc.us_ma.png
 
packfan98 said:
Don’t forget that once inland and after significant weakening, the precipitation shield often get very elongated on the north side of the center with very little in the south and western quadrants. I won’t be surprised to see precip very far to the north of the center of rotation.
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Great point...
 
metwannabe said:
Baby steps lol.... overall imo yes but still basically same landfall area as it previous runs. Funny this run shifts the heaviest precip sw but imby I picked up more on this run, basically because it has a little further north LF then the Euro with an expanding precip shield.
qpf_acc.us_ma.png
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25 miles is going to mean the difference in flooding or a summer time thunderstorm rain
 
packfan98 said:
Don’t forget that once inland and after significant weakening, the precipitation shield often get very elongated on the north side of the center with very little in the south and western quadrants. I won’t be surprised to see precip very far to the north of the center of rotation.
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Exactly. I can’t imagine Central NC not getting dumped on with a weakening TC spinning slowly north of ILM
 
Looks like Florence stalled to take a drink of the warm gulf stream waters but back on the move now...
 
FV3 has been remarkably consistent and takes this along NC/SC line while euro dips it much further south. I’m really curious to see which model wins this battle since there are significant differences.
 
This is the one time, I have ever 100% put myself with the Euro and it's EPS forecast. I know I always try to follow the EPS for snowfall amounts or chances here.. but this is different. I have told people around here, that it's the worst case scenario rain wise for the Midlands... with the secondary Charleston/mid Charleston Myrtle hit and I believe it's a better chance versus other guidance.

If I go down with it,, cool. But the ensembles and the operational for multiple runs now, although vastly different from other guidance, are too locked in for me to think this is coming in around North Myrtle and slightly North of KCAE.
 
packfan98 said:
Don’t forget that once inland and after significant weakening, the precipitation shield often get very elongated on the north side of the center with very little in the south and western quadrants. I won’t be surprised to see precip very far to the north of the center of rotation.
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Yeah the big question mark is how far north the precipitation shield extends away from the center, experience tells me with large scale stratiform it may be more extensive than modeled (as was the case in Matthew and what we see time and time again with winter storms) but the lack of significant troughs interactions with Florence might change that...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the big question mark is how far north the precipitation shield extends away from the center, experience tells me with large scale stratiform it may be more extensive than modeled (as was the case in Matthew and what we see time and time again with winter storms) but the lack of significant troughs interactions with Florence might change that...
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The FV3, HRDPS and RGEM are showing a “firehose” setup like we saw with Matthew but for a much longer duration. The FV3 is showing 24-30 hours of it. Should be interesting to see if it verifies.
 
With the upslope and all in the upstate say like greenville, why is the GFS not picking up on that? The Euro is showing 6-10" in northern upstate but GFS is wY under that.

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