Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Metwannabe]

ICON still slightly SW of the 6z at 72. Looking for it to stall off the coast again. Looking for the GFS to be another far eastern NC hit again. Wonder how long it will take the to cave (assuming the more left solutions are to be correct)?

If the Ukmet, which I know has been all over the place somewhat but tends to handle the overall synoptic setup fairly well, if it had not been north last night I'd be about ready to sound the all clear for mby and focus entirely on SC, but everything but the Euro hits NC square in the mouth. Then again Euro is king.... epic model battle

 

[ncskywarn]

ICON at hour 63 is just a tad SW of 06Z ridge appears to be a little stronger.

 

[South AL Wx]

Current evacuation orders for the Outer Banks. Via James Spann:

 

[Brent]

recon approaching the eye from the SW

 

[Snowfan]

ICON has Florence hitting the outer banks.

 

[Metwannabe]

ICON basically stalls in NE NC....

Actually would bring the tidewater region of Va into play, that's new

 

[Brent]

already near Cat 4 winds in the SW eyewall on SFMR

K

 

[snowlover91]

already near Cat 4 winds in the SW eyewall on SFMR

K

Yep based on the rapidly improving satellite presentation, this is likely a cat 4 by now and will probably make a run for cat 5 status before an EWRC starts.

 

[BHS1975]

Not just no landfalling systems, none even close......

Probably would have to go back several hundred years to find one if we had records.


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[Brent]

gonna guess we'll have a special advisory in an hour or two based on recon, likely a Cat 4 since the SW eyewall is usually weaker

 

[Metwannabe]

 

[Kylo]

Through 48 GFS isn't budging, it isn't going to change it's track. If anything it looks a little further north. Good news, hopefully it's correct.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Per the 12z so far its showing that Hurricane Florence should be moving Northwest now.

 

[Brent]

945 mb 131 kt FL

 

[Rain Cold]

GFS making a beeline for Long Island on the last frame of the image metwannabe posted above!

 

[Metwannabe]

945 mb 131 kt FL

Solid Cat 4..... poop

 

[snowlover91]

Here's recon... wow this is probably going to be around 948 when the VDM comes out.

 

[Snowfan]

Florence is having a RI this morning.

 

[packfan98]

945 mb 131 kt FL

And the GFS initialized at 971 and doesn't have it below 945mb until hr 30...

 

[Brent]

gonna get a special advisory I'm sure, they didn't even have 130 mph til 0z much less more