Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[deltadog03]

I’m at work right now, but from what I can tell the GFS better hope this turns north west fairly quickly if it’s gonna make its track because of the short term right now it’s moving almost to West

 

[WeatherLC]

Nhc just updated. Officially a cat 4

 

[Kylo]

If the GFS turns out to be wrong, it's hard to understand how it could get more wrong as we get closer to 0 hour.

Well one of these models, Euro or GFS, is going to be really wrong. And if it's the GFS and a Cat 5 Florence ends up plowing into SE NC it's going to be tough to defend it.

 

[South AL Wx]

Goofus going nuts, down to 927 @84 still sitting off the OBX

and we must be overloading TT website, it's very slow

And down to 919 at hour 90.

 

[packfan98]

Goofus going nuts, down to 927 @84 still sitting off the OBX

And with the slow forward movement at that point, you can throw the intensities in the trash due to upwelling. The glaring issue is that the GFS is uncoupled from the ocean is another reason to get rid of it. It's lagging way behind other modeling in many ways.

 

[Brent]

 

[Metwannabe]

12:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.0°N 60.2°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

 

[Snowfan]

Let's hope the GFS is right but the GFS initialized too weak.

 

[Metwannabe]

GFS is out to lunch no two ways about it.... the Ukmet trended back south. I will not be surprised to see the Euro come north just a smidge and converge on the SC/NC border as landfall point

 

[Snowfan]

Let's see what the Euro says. Plus we're a couple days from landfall and things can still change.

 

[Tarheel1]

So

12:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.0°N 60.2°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

it’s almost doubled forward speed and it’s still due West?? Hmmm

 

[malak05]

Slightly earlier then expected intensification to a Cat 4 and that track bonking the expectations. I remember just last year Hurricane Irma was a beast with a mind of her own. Way to earlier to rule out all parts of the East Coast because Irma went from a Upper Eastern FL/SC/NC storm to a Miami storm to a Western Florida and up the panhandle storm in 5-6 days

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

 

[snowlover91]

GFS is horrible. I would use a blend of Euro, HWRF, UK and FV3 for Florence. What the Euro shows will be interesting.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Per the 12z so far its showing that Hurricane Florence should be moving Northwest now.

And it really isn’t, which is concerning

 

[Brent]

yeah if the GFS is gonna be right she can't be moving along 25 N anymore

 

[WeatherLC]

Looks like Fayetteville is still a good spot for me unless the euro goes south again

 

[Showmeyourtds]

This hag has done a helluva job coughing up all that dry air she had late last night...man, talk about RI

 

[Metwannabe]

Could be a wobble but last frame there is a slight northward component.... I don't think we can deny it's continued westward movement is concerning for areas further south but I also think we may be putting a little too much emphasis on the current motion, really any definitive NW movement should come later as it rounds the developing high to it's north

 

[Stormsfury]

This hag has done a helluva job coughing up all that dry air she had late last night...man, talk about RI

Essentially a 46 mb drop since 5pm yesterday

 

[Webberweather53]

Looks like Fayetteville is still a good spot for me unless the euro goes south again

Florence going for Florence, SC would be so fitting