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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

metwannabe said:
This may be more than a wobble, starting to have doubts it ever makes LF in NC.... SC peeps get prepared

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Maybe...a lot of models have been showing a wobbly motion that eventually makes lf and continues to wobble in various directions. But maybe the Euro has been exactly right for days and it never will come ashore.
 
Rain Cold said:
Maybe...a lot of models have been showing a wobbly motion that eventually makes lf and continues to wobble in various directions. But maybe the Euro has been exactly right for days and it never will come ashore.
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NAM not backing down, landfall just north of ILM

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Webberweather53 said:
The one thing that really worries me with this storm is where the rain will be falling inland, during Matthew, which produced catastrophic flooding in my neck of the woods, we mostly had in-situ 12"+ totals, now there's gonna be a ton of extra water falling upstream in the river basins that wasn't there in Matthew plus in-situ amounts here may be higher. Lumberton is so screwed.
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Sweet! I'm right near lumberton Thanks for not answering my pm btw
 
SD said:
Still nothing crazy but a noticeable uptick in wind over the last half hour or so at the house

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NAM says be patient it's coming...

sfcwind_mslp.us_ma.png
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
 
I know Bastardi gets a lot of crap here, and sometimes rightfully so, with his tendancy to over hype everything. No denying though that he is very good at pattern recognition and stays out of forecasting for specific areas because he is not so good at that.
 
Another big burst of convection now. Man, she is really holding her own. Apparently, these "cooler, shallower" shelf waters aren't as degrading as some thought.
 
Brent said:
Guy who wanted me to chase with him is worried hes gonna lose his car to flooding already
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Yeah. I mean Brett and I have chased several and he was in the Bahamas for Irma I believe. But a bunch of these folks have no clue what they are in for. And I can tell you when it really sets in and you get up above even, say, 70mph...at night...you start to feel mighty alone and it gets sketchy real quick.
 
She looks stationary to me at the 10 PM NHC coordinates about 70 miles E of Wilmington. She’d better get moving especially west overnight like all models have or she’s likely going to be well offshore once the expected steady SW motion starts by Fri night. Even the Euro has her within 10 miles of Wilmington at 8AM tomorrow before any SW motion starts.
 
GaWx said:
She looks stationary to me at the 10 PM NHC coordinates about 70 miles E of Wilmington. She’d better get moving especially west overnight like all models have or she’s likely going to be well offshore once the steady SW motion starts by Fri night. Even the Euro has her within 10 miles of Wilmington at 8AM tomorrow before any SW motion starts.
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She's still moving slightly, per radar currently about 48 miles sse of KMHX radar site and 62 miles east of ILM...
 
down to 90 mph, weird

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
 
Brent said:
down to 90 mph, weird
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What's up is down and what's down is up. You haven't learned that about Florence yet? lol It is weird though because the eye itself looks a lot better on radar than it ever has so far this evening.
 
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