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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

I think the NHC track with this coming in around Wilmington is very reasonable and likely close to what we will see. Certainly the center could pass to the north or south of them some but the Euro is probably overdoing the ridging a bit and GFS breaking it down too quickly. The FV3 at 06z and 12z UK are a nice middle ground.

Btw, the 12z UK hits near MHX based on rough images.
 
IF the GFS track were to be correct ( which we all assume it’s not ) it’s not gonna maintain that strength sitting there for 24 hours before making landfall . Why the model doesn’t account for upwelling is beyond me .


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Storm5 said:
IF the GFS track were to be correct ( which we all assume it’s not ) it’s not gonna maintain that strength sitting there for 24 hours before making landfall . Why the model doesn’t account for upwelling is beyond me .


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I read on another forum that the GFS does not factor upwelling in its models (hopefully one of the things that will be tested in the beta GFS system)
 
Off of masters Blog

to 2012.

wilmington_mom3h.png

Figure 5. Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) storm tide image for a composite maximum surge for a large suite of possible mid-strength Category 3 hurricanes (sustained winds of 120 mph) hitting at high tide (a tide level of 2.3) near the North Carolina/South Carolina border. What’s plotted here is the storm tide--the height above ground of the storm surge, plus an additional rise in case the storm hits at high tide. Empty brownish grid cells with no coloration show where no inundation is computed to occur. Inundation of 15 -22’ can occur in a worst-case scenario along most of the coast. Note that not all sections of the coast will experience this surge level simultaneously; the peak values would occur near and to the right of the storm's center where it makes landfall. The image was created using the National Hurricane Center’s Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. See our storm surge inundation maps for the U.S. coast for more information.
A storm surge of 15 - 20' possible from Florence
The South Carolina and North Carolina coasts are extremely vulnerable to high storm surges, due to the large area of shallow water offshore. Two of the three historical Category 4 hurricanes that have hit this region generated a storm tide 18 - 20 feet: Hugo of 1989 and Hazel of 1954. The other storm--Gracie of 1959--did not (it hit at low tide, significantly reducing the coastal flooding). The storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the normal lunar tide, measured in height above sea level. The National Hurricane Center uses the terminology “height above ground level” when discussing the storm tide, meaning the height the surge (plus tide) gets above the normal high tide mark. If Florence is a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall, it has the capability of generating a 20-foot surge along a 10 – 40 mile stretch of the coast where the right-hand eyewall comes ashore.
 
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