Agreed. I'd be more inclined to believe other models are eroding the western part of the ridge too much
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
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Brent
Member
snowlover91
Member
Euro has a known bias to do that at times and I expect the 12z Euro will adjust north a touch probably back to the ILM landfall idea. ILM to MHX seems to be the area of greatest risk if you blend and account for the biases.
WeatherAddiction
Member
Well the more West movement over WNW could shift it south even more
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ehh that’s not true at all, the euro does better than most guidance in cases like this, Irma is a classic example.
Brent
Member
there's a reason the NHC is usually really close to the Euro
They also have outright called the GFS an outlier
So far, we have the ICON, the UK, the GFS, and the CMC locked in on OTS or barely into eastern NC. As much as I’d like to give the nod to the Euro, that’s a lot of globals against. Wonder if it’ll hold its course? I would have expected to see one of those others cave by now. We’re not that far away.
Euro runs in like 13 minutes so let's see if the OTS trend in the models continue.
Edit: Actually it starts at 1:45 PM. Just checked the model time schedule.
Edit: Actually it starts at 1:45 PM. Just checked the model time schedule.
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snowlover91
Member
Euro has had a SW bias in the short term as evidenced here. Whether that plays into things going forward remains to be seen but it's worth nothing. For those who want to look at the model bias I would encourage you to check out this link, some great info on there and you can see what models are doing best with verification scores, bias, etc. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/
snowlover91
Member
New UK shifted west with a track close to the consensus. Still lots to determine going forward and I expect the Euro will adjust north a touch.
snowlover91
Member
Recon just found an extrap pressure of 942.8, about 2mb lower than the last pass.
She's finally just north of 25N and appears to have a more northern component to her movement.... maybe wnw as opposed to just w, let's see if this continues
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The synoptic pattern going forward is much different than what we’ve seen so far and many of those short term forecast issues occurred without the inclusion of HH data to initialize the model. There’s no systematic SW bias in the euro as you tried to assert earlier, there is in the UKMET but it’s been all over the placeEuro has had a SW bias in the short term as evidenced here. Whether that plays into things going forward remains to be seen but it's worth nothing. For those who want to look at the model bias I would encourage you to check out this link, some great info on there and you can see what models are doing best with verification scores, bias, etc. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/
No snow for you
Member
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The GFS stall takes place on the Gulf Stream. Maybe why it bombs out.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Many were assuming the Euro would adjust north yesterday based on other guidance and we know how that worked out, 0z EPS guidance shifted south in fact...
No... it is not coupled to the ocean therefore it does not take into account upwelling of coolers waters. It's a serious flaw with the GFS
SnowNiner
Member
Yep, and the EURO track would be so rare...that gives me more credence to the N/NE clip scenario that usually plays out.
packfan98
Moderator
I'm interested in seeing what the fv3gfs says.
