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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
flight indicate that Florence has an inner eye that is open on the
east side, and a secondary wind maximum that has already begun to
spread inland across southeastern North Carolina. The highest
flight-level wind (102 kt) was actually measured within the outer
band that is moving onshore in the Wilmington area. However, the
highest SFMR-measured wind was 73 kt, and the highest land
observation so far was a sustained wind of 72 kt at Cape Lookout,
North Carolina. On top of that, NOAA Doppler radar velocities have
been running around 100 kt at about 5,000 feet. All of these data
support reducing the initial intensity to 80 kt, but based on the
higher flight-level winds, the gust factor is being set a little
higher than is typical for an 80-kt hurricane.

It should be noted that the ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State
Superensemble still take Florence on a more southern track,
straddling the coast of South Carolina before turning inland.
While that is not shown by the official forecast, it cannot yet be
ruled out as a possibility.
 
Brent said:
down to 90 mph, weird

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...THREAT OF FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
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The more the storm looks better on radar, the more the winds go down. Weird storm indeed.
 
Might be time to start reclassifying CONUS hurricanes. Most big boys in recent years seem to destroy an island or two in the Caribbean then disappear like a fart in the wind and turn into big rain events in the US. They certainly don’t make US hurricanes like they used to
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Might be time to start reclassifying CONUS hurricanes. Most big boys in recent years seem to destroy an island or two in the Caribbean then disappear like a fart in the wind and turn into big rain events in the US. They certainly don’t make US hurricanes like they used to
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I mean... look at Harvey and Katrina... nobody remembers them for the wind really
 
SD said:
And that's only through 48 hrs. Throw another 24-36 hrs on that....ouch

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Mesoscale models seem to be picking up on the more expansive rain field. The heavy rain bands directly north look realistic compared to the compact rain fields from earlier runs
 
I thought we had recon on the way out, but I haven't seen it update in a while. Hope all is ok.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Mesoscale models seem to be picking up on the more expansive rain field. The heavy rain bands directly north look realistic compared to the compact rain fields from earlier runs
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Yeah you would have to think with a nice east to southeast fetch off the atlantic the precip field to the north would be a little more expensive. What concerns me is how the mesoscale models want to set up 2 or 3 narrow bands of extremely heavy rain that train over the same area for hours.

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whatalife said:
Here’s to hoping the Euro and the EPS lose this battle.


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What's interesting is that the GFS, ICON, RGEM all come north with landfall but still get FLO further SW into SC than their previous run. Something to watch if they're going to the Euro little by little. I'm very interested in the Ukie here shortly.
 
Gfs lined up pretty well with the 18z run at 42 hrs then its slower/east at 48. Would produce huge totals in SE NC if that verified

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
What's interesting is that the GFS, ICON, RGEM all come north with landfall but still get FLO further SW into SC than their previous run. Something to watch if they're going to the Euro little by little. I'm very interested in the Ukie here shortly.
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And their rainfall progs for this area have increased. Haven’t seen the GFS yet.
 
That has to be one of the most organized storms to have such low wind speed I've ever seen.

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Again if this were a snow storm I'd be ticked, but as it is I'm not complaining.... just hope you guys have minimal issues
Kylo said:
GFS is punishing with that track. If it's right. Still going after this too.
View attachment 6378
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I was wondering that if it had slowed so much that once it dropped into SC that maybe it would turn north further east. We shall see if GFS is correct with this. This track would be nuts.
Screen Shot 2018-09-13 at 11.55.36 PM.png
 
metwannabe said:
Again if this were a snow storm I'd be ticked, but as it is I'm not complaining.... just hope you guys have minimal issues

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That is quite the gradient. Still, the best model has 1" for Raleigh and GFS has 6-12" across Wake County.
GFS.png
 
Kylo said:
I was wondering that if it had slowed so much that once it dropped into SC that maybe it would turn north further east. We shall see if GFS is correct with this. This track would be nuts.
View attachment 6381
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I thought that too but the ridge to the north drops down to replace the Bermuda ridge thats getting weakened by the shortwave and in that process Flo has to go West first.


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Man, she's trying really hard to close that eye off on the eastern side. I would stay up to watch longer, but it's about time for me to call it a night.
 
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