Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Brick Tamland]

Little better Uk image.

Looks very close to the Euro.

 

[Metwannabe]

Wouldn’t be surprised if it shifts west or south due to the continued westerly movement over the course of the day

It's actually moving north of west now and appears to be more than just a wobble....

 

[Kylo]

Wouldn't say they are "shifting east" per say

Good point, should have stated they are staying east of Euro. Hopefully that keeps up and GFS is correct.

 

[Shawn]

Looks very close to the Euro.

Previous Euro run was much further South, into SC.

 

[snowlover91]

The synoptic pattern going forward is much different than what we’ve seen so far and many of those short term forecast issues occurred without the inclusion of HH data to initialize the model. There’s no systematic SW bias in the euro as you tried to assert earlier, there is in the UKMET but it’s been all over the place

Like I said the pattern going forward is different so it may not be representative of what happens in the future. UK has been all over the place too. FV3 and Euro have been most consistent but I think the Euro is overdoing the ridging. I’ve seen plenty of storms where it nailed the track and others where it was too far west/south and you end up seeing the gfs and Euro meet in the middle. We will see soon enough what the Euro does but I expect a tick north in the 12z run.

 

[Kylo]

GEFS, mostly offshore. It should have some skill at day 3.

 

[SC_Wildcat]

So this thing is probably already a 5, the powerup was incredible.

 

[Stormsfury]

I'm moving up my Cat 5 attempt to before the 5pm update

If theye are doing another pass and continues to support the same, this will make a run at Wilma for most rapid deepening in such a short period of time!

 

[Rain Cold]

Has any model other than the UK shifted west at all at 12z?

 

[WeatherLC]

Has any model other than the UK shifted west at all at 12z?

Didn't the U.K. Nail Irma?

 

[snowlover91]

ICO

Has any model other than the UK shifted west at all at 12z?

ICON did I believe. It had it missing like GFS but shifted west to an OBX/MHX stall.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

GEFS, mostly offshore. It should have some skill at day 3.
View attachment 6119

It has none during winter. Seen every member wrong before

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Looks like recon found 143kt/165mph winds at surface last pass...
View attachment 6114

Grief..

 

[Snowfan]

According to Levi, he says the reason why the model runs are slow to come in is because there is a lot of traffic.

 

[Kylo]

Has any model other than the UK shifted west at all at 12z?

So we have GFS/CMC/NAVGEM are all off shore that scrape the OBX. FV3 looks to be east as well. UK in eastern NC. Sounds about right?

 

[Rain Cold]

ICO

ICON did I believe. It had it missing like GFS but shifted west to an OBX/MHX stall.

Ahh, right. It did slightly. Thanks.

 

[Metwannabe]

And the FV3GFS was basically unchanged....

Has any model other than the UK shifted west at all at 12z?

 

[Metwannabe]

So we have GFS/CMC/NAVGEM are all off shore that scrape the OBX. FV3 looks to be east as well. UK in eastern NC. Sounds about right?

About right, fv3 actually comes just inland in the SE part of the state almost identical to it's 06 run

 

[Metwannabe]

And the HMON, NC in the bulls-eye...



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[Rain Cold]

I wish we could see the trajectory after landfall of these models. TT is going to take until about 5:00 PM to get the data out, it looks like.