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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

For all the flack it’s been getting the GFS has been doing well in the short term especially inside 48 hours where it demonstrates the least amount of bias with Florence and this is the critical stage since landfall and the near term track are extremely important for rain and wind impacts.
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jeff p just rolled up in his chase mobile on the frying pan... how'd he get there??
 
1300m said:
It's only been getting flack from people with an agenda or those who just weren't paying attention. The Euro has been mediocre with this storm, but because it went rogue numerous times it was just assumed it would "win" as if this is some kind of sports competition and these models aren't simply supposed to provide useful guidance for an actual forecaster to use to make a forecast, rather than regurgitate. The FV3-GFS has been a far more useful tool than the Euro with predicting this storm for me and my colleagues.
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Yeah it's done quite well surprisingly. I didn't think it would have done so well but it's good to know we have a model that can perform decently compared to the one its replacing.
 
Not sure if it's just a convection burst or not, but microwave imagery and the IR show convection blowing up around the eyewall and some attempt to close the eyewall again. The hole shifted from the SW side to the NW side.
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With the slow-down and looks of it tightening up some and pressure drops how long does it have to gain in strength before it starts facing some of the weakening variables close to shore
 
Once we get a handle on where the heaviest axis of precipitation is going to be with Florence, I can imagine the WPC will bump their expected totals across central NC. It looks like the ridiculous banding will setup somewhere between US HWY 64 & I-20 in upstate SC w/ the US HWY 74 corridor & the NC/SC state line being the general consensus for the moment. Could easily see rainfall totals exceeding 12-15" whoever is under the gun.
 
1300m said:
It's only been getting flack from people with an agenda or those who just weren't paying attention. The Euro has been mediocre with this storm, but because it went rogue numerous times it was just assumed it would "win" as if this is some kind of sports competition and these models aren't simply supposed to provide useful guidance for an actual forecaster to use to make a forecast, rather than regurgitate. The FV3-GFS has been a far more useful tool than the Euro with predicting this storm for me and my colleagues.
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I am actually impressed with the GFS so far this storm. (*For the MOST part*). It did have some really dumb runs for sure, but its been doing a pretty good job in the short term, and kudos to it for showing the looping and stalling motion first.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Pressure down 2 mb and still moving NW per recon. How is it moving NW?
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It is still supposed to at this point, BUT it has slowed waaaaaaay down...

Here comes the tricky part now, we know its stalling, but where does it go from here. I still do think there is time for this to get a bit stronger.
 
deltadog03 said:
It is still supposed to at this point, BUT it has slowed waaaaaaay down...

Here comes the tricky part now, we know its stalling, but where does it go from here. I still do think there is time for this to get a bit stronger.
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If it stalls any bit earlier/longer then modeled over more general warm deeper water could definitely get interesting to watch for
 
deltadog03 said:
It is still supposed to at this point, BUT it has slowed waaaaaaay down...

Here comes the tricky part now, we know its stalling, but where does it go from here. I still do think there is time for this to get a bit stronger.
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Yeah the last part is what is slightly worrying. The decrease in speed plus the pressure drop and the better organization now makes me wonder if she is going to head up to cat 3 again.
 
South AL Wx said:
NHC 10 am update puts the pressure at 955 mb.
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Looks like we are going to be getting hourly updates now as long as recon is flying around.
malak05 said:
Anymore flights planned to go into the storm at this point?
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I'm wondering that as well. Seems to me that they will be flying as many as they can now all the way up to landfall.
 
I know it's slowing down and it's probably more wnw then nw atm, also every model has this turning west into Wilmington. But looking at water vapor and current stirring currents don't be surprised if it slides a little more north more like Morehead City. There is a disconnect between the two highs and realize this is why the stirring currents are relaxing but nothing there either to really push this sw atm...

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metwannabe said:
I know it's slowing down and it's probably more wnw then nw atm, also every model has this turning west into Wilmington. But looking at water vapor and current stirring currents don't be surprised if it slides a little more north more like Morehead City. There is a disconnect between the two highs and realize this is why the stirring currents are relaxing but nothing there either to really push this sw atm...

wg8dlm4.GIF
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This shortwave over New England is going to weaken the western flank of the Azores-Bermuda high and allow the high over the TN Valley to predominate the large-scale steering flow and push Florence WSW or even potentially SW momentarily. How quickly this occurs remains to be seen but it's liable to happen within the next 18-24 hours.

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Greg Fishel

5 mins ·


DO NOT LET “WEAKER” WINDS MISLEAD YOU!

Once again we all have been humbled by Florence’s unpredictability. Just 24 hours ago max sustained winds were forecast to be 145mph this morning. In reality they are 110mph. But here’s the deal and why Florence not only could be, but is still likely to be one of the most significant weather events in North Carolina history. First a large wind field, i.e. tropical storm force winds extending 140-195 miles from the center, make it the equivalent of a smaller more intense hurricane when it comes to storm surge. Second, Florence is already slowing down, and by the way that element of the forecast has been spot on. Florence coming to a crawl means hour upon hour of relentless winds and rain for southeastern North Carolina. Bottom line, true devastation is still very much on the table along with major river flooding inland. Now, regarding the Triangle, I do not at this point see the impacts being as bad as Fran. We will not experience several hours of winds gusting to 60-70 mph and most likely will not receive 9-10 inches of rain. I am much more confident about the winds than the rain as there are still ways that higher amounts could occur, which would greatly increase flooding potential. But I do have a very hard time imagining repeating the landscape of downed trees everywhere. Unfortunately you won’t have to venture very far south and east of Raleigh to experience a very different scenario. This is going to be long and tough. We will do our very best to keep you informed and safe, and if Florence begins to behave in a way that we didn’t anticipate, we’ll be the first to admit it and will adjust our forecast accordingly. Ok it’s time. Let’s get through this together!
 
Lets start with what we know at this point:
She is still a strong hurricane, with time to get stronger. She is definitely fighting to do that. ALL models are forecasting the stall. They also forecast some WSW to even SW or SSW (1 or 2) for a time as well. I think the window is closing quickly for this to get that far north ( ie I am talking about east of Morehead City. The speed has really slowed down, which y'all know is a sign of steering collapsing but usually means we will see a change in direction (movement) as well.
 
 

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Yep seems quick....


Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning
NCC095-131515-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0003.180913T1500Z-180913T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Hyde County in eastern North Carolina...

* Until 1115 AM EDT.

* At 1100 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near Swindell Fork, or 27 miles north of Cedar
Island, moving west at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

BHS1975 said:
Already got a tornado warning

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Given the breadth and the intensity of Florence's wind field as it approaches NC, there's going to be a lot of low-level shear, thus the tornado threat in the northern & eastern quadrants of the storm will be pretty high compared to what we "normally" see w/ a landfalling TC in NC.
 
metwannabe said:
Yep seems quick....


Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning
NCC095-131515-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0003.180913T1500Z-180913T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Hyde County in eastern North Carolina...

* Until 1115 AM EDT.

* At 1100 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near Swindell Fork, or 27 miles north of Cedar
Island, moving west at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
Click to expand...
Created an Observstions thread for posts like this just now. Since members will be directly impacted the thread needed to go up sometime.
 
metwannabe said:
Yep seems quick....


Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning
NCC095-131515-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0003.180913T1500Z-180913T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Hyde County in eastern North Carolina...

* Until 1115 AM EDT.

* At 1100 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located near Swindell Fork, or 27 miles north of Cedar
Island, moving west at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
Click to expand...
I know the potential tornado is moving quickly, but I don't know if I've ever seen a Tornado Warning whose duration was only 15 minutes long.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Created an Observstions thread for posts like this just now. Since members will be directly impacted the thread needed to go up sometime.
Click to expand...
Check your PM, looks like you were not included in the original PM about this the other day.... I just invited you so hopefully you can see that conversation. It was agreed to keep it all in here
 
Looks to be involving more of GA with the latest update.

Florence update.jpg
 
RGEM and NAM both coming in farther south than their 6z runs. Looks like as soon as they make landfall, they pretty much spin wsw and then straight SW. Maybe good news for those of us farther inland.
 
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