Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Rain Cold]

So, where does it go?

Go to the Tropical Tidbits site and play the loop. I don't know how to post it here. It goes wnw through the southern tier of NC (and then north through the foothills) after stalling near ILM.

It is much closer to what I have expected to happen. Could be wrong, I guess, but we'll see what the other models say.

 

[Snowfan]

So, where does it go?

It's moving along the NC/SC border.

 

[Webberweather53]

The outer eyewall moat trying to develop w/ Florence is on the order of 125-150 miles in diameter (obviously it'll contract some from here), but my goodness this storm is big.

 

[snowlover91]

So far through hour 18 the GFS is a little faster and NW of it's previous run.

 

[Rain Cold]

The outer eyewall moat trying to develop w/ Florence is on the order of 125-150 miles in diameter (obviously it'll contract some from here), but my goodness this storm is big.

Did you see the NAM sim IR? It looks massive as it approaches land and is picture perfect.

 

[snowlover91]

The outer eyewall moat trying to develop w/ Florence is on the order of 125-150 miles in diameter (obviously it'll contract some from here), but my goodness this storm is big.

Any idea what might be causing it to try to form such a large eye? Usually most EWRC's I've seen don't form one this large... but I'm guessing this could also take a lot longer to complete too.

 

[accu35]

45 miles wide this morning

140 you mean

 

[ForsythSnow]

140 you mean

I believe he is referencing the eye diameter. A 140 mile wide eye would just be huge.

 

[Tarheel1]

ICON substantially farther north than 6z. Never gets into SC. Ruh Roh.

Lol, it’s the icon!! Only to be used when it’s the only model showing snow!

 

[Webberweather53]

Any idea what might be causing it to try to form such a large eye? Usually most EWRC's I've seen don't form one this large... but I'm guessing this could also take a lot longer to complete too.

Good question! Ironically, I had a similar conversation w/ HM just a few hours ago, this might answer your question.

 

[South AL Wx]

One thing to keep in mind: the size of the storm and extent of tropical storm/hurricane force winds will likely exacerbate the storm surge potential, even if the maximum sustained winds are lower than they are now. Hurricane Ike was only a category 2 storm at landfall based on the maximum sustained winds (although that hurricane was larger in size than Florence currently), but it still produced a 22 foot storm surge.

 

[snowlover91]

GFS a touch faster at 30 and bending more to the wnw now, should stall soon.

 

[Webberweather53]

WPC rainfall in the Carolinas, oof. Could easily see one foot+ totals just north of where the center tracks. Even though the WPC has the heaviest rains centered along US HWY 74 between Fayetteville & Charlotte that band could setup anywhere between the SC midlands and north-central NC.

 

[pcbjr]

Says a lot ...

 

[snowlover91]

GFS might be going for a landfall here at 42 near Jacksonville.. still moving at a decent clip from hour 36 to 42...

 

[snowlover91]

By 48 GFS has landfall or close to it.

 

[RBR71]

Looking like the 12z crowd so far wants to bring it inland before stalling out now..... good grief

 

[Cary_Snow95]

So far on the 12 models, they are pushing Florence further nw before stalling, which has major implications for the inland track

 

[snowlover91]

Looking like the 12z crowd so far wants to bring it inland before stalling out now..... good grief

Perhaps they are picking up on what the NHC mentioned in their 11am discussion...

 

[RBR71]

That's a large area being raked by significant winds

By 48 GFS has landfall or close to it.

 

[snowlover91]

By hour 60 it looks like most of it not the entire eye is stalled just north of Wilmington.

 

[accu35]

Hr 60 south bound

 

[RBR71]

We're actually two different people.... Lol

Looking like the 12z crowd so far wants to bring it inland before stalling out now..... good grief

So far on the 12 models, they are pushing Florence further nw before stalling, which has major implications for the inland track

 

[Rain Cold]

GFS at 60 is a decent bit west and inland from the 6z at 66.

 

[accu35]

There's your ridge

 

[Snowfan]

GFS looks ICON-like.

 

[snowlover91]

So far the trend I've noticed on the 12z runs is a slightly faster motion for longer that gets Florence closer to the coast or just inland before the stall/drift occurs.

 

[RBR71]

Yep

GFS at 60 is a decent bit west and inland from the 6z at 66.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

[RBR71]

Broken record comment: I hope y'all got generators, water, etc.... prolonged TS/H force winds well inland spells prolonged power outages. And that is not fun

 

[mrdaddyman]

Looking like the 12z crowd so far wants to bring it inland before stalling out now..... good grief

Wouldn't this be better overall though? It would weaken the storm quicker than if it was stalled out over the water.

 

[Brick Tamland]

ICON, RGEM, and GFS all farther west and inland near Wilmington?

 

[RBR71]

Wouldn't this be better overall though? It would weaken the storm quicker than if it was stalled out over the water.

I don't think so, no stall off shore allows it to make landfall as a stronger storm plus the inland effects will be much worse...

 

[accu35]

Hr 84 big drop south

 

[Webberweather53]

This is probably worth mentioning.

 

[accu35]

 

[ForsythSnow]

Anyone else think the wind field is going to explode in size at landfall to a size just smaller than Irma's? I'm thinking that because this storm keeps growing and it has a massive upper level wind field that has to go somewhere when it weakens.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS now in central South Carolina at 93 hours.

 

[accu35]

South vrs 6z

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Holy **** Wilmington is going to be under water. The rain never ends

 

[malak05]

From Hour 78 to 84 eyes moving SW it actually goes from Pressure drops from 988 to 966 so it's most likely holding strength