Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yep. Ridge much stronger. Euro had no where to go but west.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
Yes. Goes right over the Triad while putting the Triangle in the NE quadrant. Let’s see how long it lingers on this run and the precipitation totals. Yucks.
Are you on the ride with the Yeti??
So Euro hits around holdon beach and gets shunted W towards CLT?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
IMO, this Euro operational run gives a lot of value to its southern ensemble mean. Huge shift west this run.
Definitely was a shift west. Maybe SC is not of the Game.
Ryan Maue | weathermodels.comVerified account @RyanMaue 4m4 minutes ago
Model guidance locked on SE North Carolina as a landfall location for Hurricane #Florence ... b/c of storm's size including a 200-mile margin puts a lot of coastline under threat of major hurricane conditions mainly on Thursday. ECMWF 12z update: (https://weathermodels.com )
Model guidance locked on SE North Carolina as a landfall location for Hurricane #Florence ... b/c of storm's size including a 200-mile margin puts a lot of coastline under threat of major hurricane conditions mainly on Thursday. ECMWF 12z update: (https://weathermodels.com )
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I definitely would not let my guard down. Good to see the governor of S.C. is having a press briefing and not taking it lightly. I bet the Euro ensembles will stay south and west. Probably will see globals move to that once they recognize the strength of the ridge.
whatalife
Moderator
Indeed it does. It will be interesting to see what kind of shift we see on the 12z EPS.
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snowlover91
Member
Euro landfall. Brutal.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Max gusts on the Euro, my house gets obliterated by 115 mph + gusts, Raleigh, Greensboro, & Charlotte all experience hurricane force gusts. Widespread power outages if this panned out, areas south & east of Raleigh could be in serious trouble if this occurred.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So, Flo going over the Triad instead of over the Triangle would actually be worse for the Triangle, right?
Good news is this run is much faster once inland vs previous runs where it just sat there for days
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
snowlover91
Member
Eric, do you think the Euro may be a bit too strong with the ridging and we see more of a N curl once inland, like the UK and FV3 GFS?
Agreed. Gotta keep watching that track, atleast for the next little while, Florence will not strengthen much if at all. Dry air is still causing issues.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Good news to reduce flooding, bad news as this means stronger winds.
pcbjr
Member
Webb,
Stay safe ... if this pans out ... you and everyone else stay safe ... and when some old Curmudgeon says "I feel the pain", please understand it's true ... damn I wish y'all were not facing this and maybe, just maybe, it's a blip and won't happen ...
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Got a hotel booked for Fayetteville nc Thursday
Should have booked on Ocean isle beach!!