Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Meteorologist1999]

So, the UK and Euro both have it coming in with a Fran like path as a cat 4 and just dying out over NC after a few days. Hard to bet against that combo.

I’m looking for 12z Euro to shift east away from South Carolina, but I do think North Carolina is the area that’s need to Pay Close Attention.

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro initializes a hair S of 0Z run and is further S at hour 30

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I’m looking for 12z Euro to shift east away from South Carolina, but I do think North Carolina is the area that’s need to Pay Close Attention.

The Euro for about 2 days has been showing a N.C. landfall I believe. It’s ensemble is a different story though. It’s been trending SW near Charleston.

 

[Tarheel1]

I’m going to speculate that 12z Euro stays same as 0z or goes even more South and West of 0z

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro hour 42: ~50 miles S of 0Z Euro and, if anything, ridge actually slightly weaker so far

 

[pcbjr]

12Z Euro hour 42: ~50 miles S of 0Z Euro

Keep your reservations ...

 

[Chattownsnow]

By the end of this I'm betting we see a landfall just north of Wilmington, NC near Topsail beach. Book it.

 

[snowlover91]

FV3 has landfall near Wilmington.

HMON is similar
HWRF close

UK in agreement

 

[Storm5]

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[GaWx]

12Z Euro now same location at hour 72 vs 0Z Euro with slightly weaker ridge. It may move N of 0z shortly.

 

[Metwannabe]

Just under 5 days now too...

FV3 has landfall near Wilmington.
View attachment 6055
HMON is similar View attachment 6056
HWRF close
View attachment 6057
UK in agreement
View attachment 6058

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[thekidcurtis]

FV3 sticks to its guns, basically 5 runs straight now.

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[GaWx]

Now 12Z Euro 50 miles N of 0Z Euro hour 84. So, following model consensus.


Edit: ridge about same as 0Z.

 

[snowlover91]

Now 12Z Euro 50 miles N of 0Z Euro hour 84. So, following model consensus.

Wilmington NC to Morehead City looks like the consensus area for landfall right now. This Euro run will probably be in that area too.

 

[snowlover91]

Euro in line with other models posted above.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

At 96 hours on Euro ridge is stronger and further SW. No where for Flo to go but west inland

 

[snowlover91]

Florence track with pressures. Looks like around 950mb for landfall.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Wow! Nightmare scenario on the euro

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

That landfall on Euro looks further south than Wilmington. Looks like Holden beach.

 

[GaWx]

Now well inland in NC, 12 Euro ~50 miles W of 0Z