NCSNOW
Member
Grit posted this on amx: euro ensembles looks alot like 6z gfs and NHC. Crazy path, but atleast consensus. So tired of tracking this thing, ready for it to do what its gonna do and move on.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
That is one impressive looking sim radar snapshot.Massive
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maineweatherman
Member
Had a few minutes there where the convective appearance seemed for the first time so far to be A+. But thankfully, we're back down to a degraded and lopsided storm. -70C tops are to the SE, with the -60 ring barely hanging on in the NW quad. Perhaps an artifact of Florence moving too fast, a la Gordon in the GOM? Watching closely (1min GOES-16 link in case you don't already have one or are looking for a new one: https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play2)
Attachments
Im seeing that as well. Lot of warming last 60-90 minutes north and northwest portions of the COD. Seems to be some dry air going by the upper and mid level water vapor views
Storm5
Member
Look at this S$$$ . Image From Allan
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NCSNOW
Member
Waiting for Shettley to chime in. He must not be forecasting a futher inland track to western SC.
Definitely becoming better organized and symmetric.
Don’t worry. In about 10 minutes it will start to look foolish again!
snowlover91
Member
Something worth noting is as Florence slows down and traverses the Gulf Stream it's likely everything will become more symmetrical and we could see some strengthening prior to landfall assuming no EWRC starts.
WeatherAddiction
Member
I think the GFS has the more likely scenario right now and with it forecasting the the stall earlier I think I might be leaning towards it and the FV3 now.
Will be interesting to see just how far north it gets today and tonight, noticed this tidbit from the Rah AFD....
06Z/special release upr air data over the sern US this morning indicates a developing mid-upr level ridge there is already 10-20 meters stronger than even 00Z, 6hr model forecasts.
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06Z/special release upr air data over the sern US this morning indicates a developing mid-upr level ridge there is already 10-20 meters stronger than even 00Z, 6hr model forecasts.
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Y’all, I am still having trouble believing that this thing will perfectly track the SE coastline SW from Wilmington to Charleston and come ashore near the GA/SC line and move WSW int GA. I’m sorry but that’s absurd. I think it may yet go through upper SC.
Everest
Member
I've never seen anything like this; stalling and moving perfectly along the coast.
I agree with you in fact I'm inclined to think this actually starts turning West sooner instead of getting as far north stalling and heading back Southwest. Especially considering the ridge is coming in stronger and I think arcc mention this yesterday
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packfan98
Moderator
This tweet should give us pause. It may come back north a bit.
Kylo
Member
The coastal flooding. Shaping up to be similar to Matthew. More wind for the I would think.
Though Raleigh will have much less rain with Flo. Don’t have the aid of upper level trough that we had with Matthew.
Though Raleigh will have much less rain with Flo. Don’t have the aid of upper level trough that we had with Matthew.
BHS1975
Member
Seems to be the theme these days. Would this bend the track west sooner or just stall her sooner?
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packfan98
Moderator
Don't we often see strong ridging highs back off a bit in the last 48 hours? Seems like that's always the case with our NW trend with winter systems. I know that this is a different setup and invest 95L has really been pumping the high, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the ridge lift or weaken a bit over the next few runs.
That's a great question I would think it would there would be some stalling before it turn left but I'm really not the one to answer that haha
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snowlover91
Member
Something of note I've been tracking since yesterday is the EPS and Euro have been consistently verifying too far SW even 12 hours out from a forecast cycle and the UK ensembles haven't even been close. The 6z GFS and NAM did come in a touch north, the 12z runs will be key to watch and see if we get any additional shifts like that. One thing I'm watching closely is the RGEM. It's not a tropical model but it did exceptionally well a few weeks ago with that tropical storm in the gulf and the further east track that it ended up taking.
RollTide18
Member
Well as of now, the ridge is already stronger than modeled, per RAH.
SnowNiner
Member
Completely agree. If that actually happens I'd be completely shocked. Much more likely is for it to stall and drift west IMO. It seems like everybody's glued to the models, but they forget in another 2 cycles the models will all change again. Nhc track is on the northern end of model consensus. That tells you how they feel as well.
packfan98
Moderator
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Well this story continues to make us go closer to insanity. I don't know what to expect anymore, but personally I think this thing is going to find a middle ground and make landfall between Charleston and Myrtle Beach with a bit of a short stall offshore, then an acceleration inland and due west. Of course it's not going to be good for anyone and the wind field will likely blow up to a huge size like with Irma.
Kylo
Member
Something of note I've been tracking since yesterday is the EPS and Euro have been consistently verifying too far SW even 12 hours out from a forecast cycle and the UK ensembles haven't even been close. The 6z GFS and NAM did come in a touch north, the 12z runs will be key to watch and see if we get any additional shifts like that. One thing I'm watching closely is the RGEM. It's not a tropical model but it did exceptionally well a few weeks ago with that tropical storm in the gulf and the further east track that it ended up taking.
Can see without the aid of a trough bulk of precip will be north/east side of Flo. Would do wonders for the coastal flooding if this stalled just a hair further N/E.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
We should know by now that any big event here, either winter storms or hurricanes, always changes 48 hours out.
Kylo
Member
Raleigh has been fortunate to avoid stuff like this since Fran, well the worst of it.
snowlover91
Member
Didn't see this posted anywhere but the UK rainfall totals are scary, I've never seen a model show this much rain before.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It doesn't really say anything about how they feel in terms of track, it's strictly for continuity purposes why they're north of the guidance. There's a reason the models shifted south, the high to the west & northwest of Florence intensified & is already stronger than forecast, huge red flag. Just because you or anyone else here haven't seen anything like this before doesn't make it any less legitimate meteorologically, again, see hurricane Betsy (1965). Notice this ridge is even stronger than the one that turned Betsy SW-SSW east of Florida. A lot of people used the climatology/this hasn't happened before argument already about a week or so ago to claim Florence would go OTS and we all know how that panned out.
packfan98
Moderator
On a global scale, things are not changing significantly. We obsess over the mesoscale meteorology because it effects us and large populated areas. Small changes can cause havoc for us personally, but the world keeps turning.
Kylo
Member
Just read that, argues for further east stall which would be good news.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, it usually ends up not as big as it looked at first. Good thing with hurricanes, but not with snow.
I'm going to sound like the NHC now but don't focus on just the center point and let your guard down just because the center is not passing over your house. Her wind field about a hundred and fifty miles east and is expanding and there could still be numerous power outages well inland, again I remember Hurricane Irene people in Roanoke Rapids were without power for almost 10 days. The center of Irene about a hundred and fifty miles east and an 85 mile per hour hurricane.
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BHS1975
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Very good point. We keep seeing records in the Atlantic broken and new paths for storm all the time. People tend to think analogs and initial forecasts are set in stone and have the same influence as one put out 4 days ago. Yes, it's important to note trends, but use the trends to make better forecasts, not get stuck on the same idea even if it dramatically changes.
packfan98
Moderator
Here's a question while things are slower this morning, what makes the "Hurricane Models" special? How are they different than other medium range models? Does anyone know?
Well obviously Irene kept moving northward but it parallel to coast and we were on the weakest side of that storm, just shows you different storms have different issues, that had an expanding wind field and a slow mover. I've seen storm scrape the Outer Banks I never got as much as a breeze
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By the way I'm not suggesting anything remotely like that with this storm, just a reminder don't be surprised that the power flickers a couple of hundred miles away from the center haha
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Webb made a great post.....Just because we don't see it happen that often, or even ever, doesn't mean it can't or won't happen now. I admit, this would be my first real time seeing something do this. (on this scale). I have seen storms stop and drop south then west then east...etc....but this would be unique for sure. Now, IMHO, NHC knows that the trend for this stall and backing SSW then W or whatever, pick your flavor of model, but they are not going to over correct. I think the 11am adv is going to be some bigger changes. I don't know that for sure, just my gut telling me that.
That is because it's winter and the -NAO is a myth.