Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Cary_Snow95]

The 12z CMC is a OBX scraper just like the GFS

 

[Tarheel1]

The 12z CMC is a OBX scraper just like the GFS

Last nights Euro, on an island? The 12z Euro could be an important run

 

[Tarheel1]

The gfs has spanked the Euro before on tropical systems

 

[Kylo]

GFS has been rock steady for several runs in a row. Good to see it off the coast, though the OBX will get roughed up.

 

[Kylo]

12z UK looks like the 0z Euro. Right through ILM and rots in central NC.

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: at hour 132 is a whopping 271 miles WNW of its 0 UKMET hour 144 although it is still far N of its runs prior to today's 0Z

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2018

HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 55.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2018 0 24.4N 55.9W 986 60 *****vs actual of 24.4N, 56.1W
0000UTC 10.09.2018 12 24.4N 57.4W 981 62
1200UTC 10.09.2018 24 24.8N 59.3W 972 65
0000UTC 11.09.2018 36 25.6N 61.5W 972 68
1200UTC 11.09.2018 48 26.5N 64.6W 965 73
0000UTC 12.09.2018 60 27.7N 67.9W 958 75
1200UTC 12.09.2018 72 29.1N 71.0W 953 84
0000UTC 13.09.2018 84 31.1N 73.4W 948 81
1200UTC 13.09.2018 96 32.8N 75.5W 942 86
0000UTC 14.09.2018 108 34.2N 76.9W 928 91
1200UTC 14.09.2018 120 34.9N 78.3W 962 54
0000UTC 15.09.2018 132 35.5N 79.1W 983 37 *****0Z was at 33.5N, 75.0W
1200UTC 15.09.2018 144 36.4N 79.2W 990 29

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Also stalls before making landfall

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Stalling would weaken it significantly because of upwelling right ?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Damn, the models can’t make up there mind!

 

[packfan98]

Stalling would weaken it significantly because of upwelling right ?

Yes. The gfs is uncoupled with the ocean and doesn’t depict the weakening. I’m not sure that we can pick and choose the parts of the gfs we can trust in this situation.

 

[packfan98]

How many times in the winter do we see the gfs plow a strong low through a blocking high only to correct in subsequent runs?? Is this similar at all to that?

 

[Webberweather53]

Hurricane hunters going for a SE-NW quad pass, we'll see if Florence's minimum central pressure has fallen any and get a precise center fix to determine long-term motion which looks like it's primarily due west at the moment. The expansion of the cirrus deck in the northern semicircle is a hint that the light northerly flow over Florence that was causing the storm to lose some latitude earlier is abating and thus we probably won't lose too much latitude from here.

 

[Metwannabe]

Just recently I recall the GFS slamming Lane into Hawaii while the Euro turned west without landfall, I know different setup, region, etc but the GFS was rock solid with that track too until the last 24 hours.....

 

[Metwannabe]

Looks like it's trying to pop an eye again on vis sat image....

 

[SD]

Just recently I recall the GFS slamming Lane into Hawaii while the Euro turned west without landfall, I know different setup, region, etc but the GFS was rock solid with that track too until the last 24 hours.....

Yeah the gfs actually popped some 597 heights this run but was north. I have a hard time leaning toward the gfs until we see the EPS and Euro go that way.

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[Webberweather53]

Fv3 is way SW of the GFS btw.

 

[pcbjr]

Fv3 is way SW of the GFS btw.

This is getting to be like accidentally putting a fine silk garment in the dryer with a bunch of cotton bath towels ... it comes out a mess in other words.
Thanks, for the updates, Webb (and everyone else!).

 

[Webberweather53]

Florence hasn't strengthened much at all in the last few hours or so, dropsonde still showing 984mb central pressure in the eye.

 

[Storm5]

Lol the ukmet has been all over the map how can it be taken seriously with any of its solutions .


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[BIG FROSTY]

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 7h7 hours ago
Since Wednesday we have had this going inland over NC and then crawling into VA. Should this turn out correct, this is likely to be the worst natural disaster on record for Carolinas into VA Major hit combined with 3-4 feet of rain in some places over 3-4 day period.