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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

BIG FROSTY said:
vis_meso_florence.gif
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It looks like it might be gaining latitude.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Florence hasn't strengthened much at all in the last few hours or so, dropsonde still showing 984mb central pressure in the eye.

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Could wind shear still be keeping Florence in check from rapidly intensifying? The CIMSS website shows Florence threading the needle between two pockets of wind shear around 25-30kts to the south and west and north and east.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-ti...m=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0
 
There's a lot of hot towers firing up on the south and west sides of where Florence's eye is roughly located. Is it possible the center could get tugged further south and west into the contraction of that heavy convection? Assuming it's not close to perfectly vertically stacked atm, which I don't know for sure.
 
packfan98 said:
Encouraging. Any word on the strength of that ridge on the GEFS? If it trended stronger then the NE tracks would be all for naught.
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Ridge a little stronger in 12Z GEFS and keeps getting a bit stronger run to run.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
There's a lot of hot towers firing up on the south and west sides of where Florence's eye is roughly located. Is it possible the center could get tugged further south and west into the contraction of that heavy convection? Assuming it's not close to perfectly vertically stacked atm, which I don't know for sure.
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I think the stronger she gets, the better chance for more northerly component of motion. Very recently, I think she's actually had a slight northward component to perhaps as N as 24.5N per vis loop (though that could be due to a wobble) but I think recon was still further S near 24.4 whenever it made its last vortex report.
 
I know it is a lot to ask for the GFS to be right versus the Euro, but I hope this is one of those rare occurrences.
 
12Z CDN ens mean NE of its 0Z run. Weaker 500 mb ridge unlike 12Z GEFS' stronger one.
 
So, the UK and Euro both have it coming in with a Fran like path as a cat 4 and just dying out over NC after a few days. Hard to bet against that combo.
 
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