Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[GaWx]

12Z GFS at hour 18 a hair N of the 6Z GFS.

 

[SD]

If this hits NC, I expect pictures of certain members braving 75mph gusts for the good of the forum.

I'll be live on they southernwx Facebook until I can't

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[Arcc]

I'll be live on they southernwx Facebook until I can't

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Ha, sweet.

IR wise Florence is still fighting dry air on it's SW side.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

12z GFS is NW of the 6z and stronger.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Ridge is already stronger this run at 48

 

[Webberweather53]

GFS has Florence passing over 24.7N by 18z (~3pm) today, good luck with that.

 

[Metwannabe]

I see the price of plywood has increased

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[GaWx]

12Z gfs furthest N of at least last 4 gfs runs at hour 60. Yeah, Webb, that’s highly unlikely.

 

[Metwannabe]

The 12z ICON is NE so far fwiw

Also stalls before making landfall

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[Metwannabe]

12Z gfs furthest N of at least last 4 gfs runs at hour 60. Yeah, Webb, that’s highly unlikely.

So we can just about toss this GFS run

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[Webberweather53]

GFS is further north this run with a stronger ridge, sigh...

 

[Tarheel1]

GFS is further north this run with a stronger ridge, sigh...

But we toss! It’s initialized wrong already

 

[SD]

So we can just about toss this GFS run

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It has a more expansive ridge to the north. Any northward shift could washout in the end with that

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[Metwannabe]

This may be stupid but based on this northern bias is there a certain distance you could potentially adjust the final track to get approximate estimate, say a 150 miles southwest of what the GFS ends up showing?

GFS has Florence passing over 24.7N by 18z (~3pm) today, good luck with that.

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[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Yeah the GFS has a stronger ridge but florence ends up way north.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[GaWx]

Yeah the GFS has a stronger ridge but florence ends up way north.

I think because the stronger ridge is oriented SE to NW on the run as opposed to, say, ESE to WNW per a pro met elsewhere.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Still seems the gfs is going north way to fast. Bias is showing

 

[GaWx]

Per visible loops, I think Flo is now ~24.35N and I’m guessing she’s moving about due W.