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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

snowlover91 said:
It may not matter if she deepens and is stronger than forecast by models. UK brings her down to 928, I hate to say it but that is plausible given the upper air setup and warm waters off the coast.
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I think it is. Another issue is the longer the delay in intensification and could put the peak later closer to landfall as well.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Looking at the NHC forecast cone it looks it will NOT be a major hurricane shortly after landfall at 8am on Friday, so i'm guessing they are forecasting it to make landfall as a Cat 2 or maybe a weak cat 3 ?
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Feel free to delete ... but, if you ever sat through a Cat 2, it's plenty major ... FWIW ...
 
Bad trends today. This ain’t good. I’m worried about the 33mph wind gusts shown on the euro for mby.. 110+ well inland is disastrous especially coupled with torrential rain. If this ridge builds in like depicted then this thing will have to where to go but inland. My best wishcasting at this point would be to think the ridge won’t be this strong come game time but honestly I’m still not 100% certain this thing isn’t done moving south
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Bad trends today. This ain’t good. I’m worried about the 33mph wind gusts shown on the euro for mby.. 110+ well inland is disastrous especially coupled with torrential rain. If this ridge builds in like depicted then this thing will have to where to go but inland. My best wishcasting at this point would be to think the ridge won’t be this strong come game time but honestly I’m still not 100% certain this thing isn’t done moving south
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Atleast we will be getting downsloping winds! Rain won’t be an issue for us, unless SAV or CHS become bullseye
 
Honestly though I'm not worried about it. I can handle a little rain and wind
 
Wow, this is crazy. I just noticed on 12Z Euro that NE FL actually does get hit by Flo.... the 2nd time! From NC, it comes back S inland and then goes offshore before then moving SW into NE FL on 9/18 and then to Phil's abode!! Yes it is weak then but still that's insane.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Bad trends today. This ain’t good. I’m worried about the 33mph wind gusts shown on the euro for mby.. 110+ well inland is disastrous especially coupled with torrential rain. If this ridge builds in like depicted then this thing will have to where to go but inland. My best wishcasting at this point would be to think the ridge won’t be this strong come game time but honestly I’m still not 100% certain this thing isn’t done moving south
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Look at all the rain for GSP!:mad:
 
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Webberweather53 said:
EPS still loaded with hits between Jacksonville & Hatteras...
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After actually starting off slightly further south through 60W and further west just like its operational, the mean actually ends up very slightly further N when it gets to the SE US. There's that aforementioned Jax hit but that's the only FL TS+ hit vs the 0Z EPS several N FL hits. So, a slight trend N of the mean fwiw.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Looking at the NHC forecast cone it looks it will NOT be a major hurricane shortly after landfall at 8am on Friday, so i'm guessing they are forecasting it to make landfall as a Cat 2 or maybe a weak cat 3 ?
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Not exactly. They are forecasting Florence to still be a 100mph Cat 2 when its approx 100 miles inland/6 hours post-landfall. That extrapolates to 140-145 at landfall or very close the forecasted strength in the 2-3 days leading up to landfall. For major canes the average "decay" in max winds after landfall is 30%/6 hours, 50%/12 hours.
 
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