Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Metwannabe]

I've noticed this also, most modeling does a horrible job with the extent of the rain...

The rain shield is already well NE of what guidance is showing

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[malak05]

For what it's worth HRRR has it cruising down the coast very Euro like?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I've noticed this also, most modeling does a horrible job with the extent of the rain...

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Not to mention once it comes over land that shield will expand once more

 

[pcbjr]

Just something a major part of my brain hates to see, but here it is anyways ...

 

[Brent]

952 mb that pass

Pressure dropping and stalled over the gulf stream...

 

[SoutheastRidge]

952 mb that pass

Pressure dropping and stalled over the gulf stream...

So stalling will weaken it due to upwelling right ?

 

[deltadog03]

well, she looks to be closer to 34N or a shade below that, but also appears to be drifting/joggin north

I think she is just doing some loops out there right now

 

[Brent]

So stalling will weaken it due to upwelling right ?

well so far it hasn't... but it is over the gulf stream

This is the lowest pressure all day

 

[deltadog03]

Ok, so still a little bit below 34N...

 

[South AL Wx]

5 pm advisory has winds down to 100 mph. Pressure still at 955 mb on the advisory.

 

[Brent]

down to 100 and a TS warning for Charleston

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS GETTING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 76.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from south of South Santee
River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

 

[snowlover91]

The outer eyewall appears to be taking over.

 

[malak05]

Interesting to see if it continues to show growing convection in cloud tops and drops in pressure in next few hours to see if it gets below 950

 

[Rain Cold]

Tropical Storm Warning now in effect for Wake.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Pretty amazing to look at Hi Res satellite and watch Florence explode over the Gulf Stream

 

[Kylo]

Tropical Storm Warning now in effect for Wake.

Going to be tough to get winds with Florence in Charleston.

 

[Metwannabe]

Y'all get all the fun.... side note these little showers are full on tropical downpours, moving 40 mph, rained for about 3 minutes picked up .28

Tropical Storm Warning now in effect for Wake.

 

[Rain Cold]

Y'all get all the fun.... side note these little showers are full on tropical downpours, moving 40 mph, rained for about 3 minutes picked up .28

You were right earlier, the 3K NAM was much farther north. The ICON looks about the same as the last run to me. I didn't do the side by sides, but it basically looked the same. Waiting on the RGEM.

 

[Alex]

Chatham as well. Honestly wasn't expecting it but planned on getting conditions at some point anyway.

Tropical Storm Warning now in effect for Wake.

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[Stormsfury]

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