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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Here's a "side by side" of the ICON maybe 25 mile southward shift, either way pretty negligible. I don't know what to think, so far 18z models not really shifting south, in fact RGEM might be a smidge north. We hear many times as a winter storm approaches that this timeframe not in Euro wheelhouse, not sure if applies here or not.
Rain Cold said:
You were right earlier, the 3K NAM was much farther north. The ICON looks about the same as the last run to me. I didn't do the side by sides, but it basically looked the same. Waiting on the RGEM.
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85d58afbf3a2ea54c19dc2bf43b42228.gif


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Alex said:
Chatham as well. Honestly wasn't expecting it but planned on getting conditions at some point anyway.

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It's funny my forecast from the NWS says "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night and Saturday but not one advisory Lol....
 
metwannabe said:
It's funny my forecast from the NWS says "Tropical Storm Conditions Possible" tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night and Saturday but not one advisory Lol....
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Your local folks are likely not used to spelling "tropical" ... just like when there is white falling from the sky here in winter, our NWS says "unknown precip" ... :confused:
 
metwannabe said:
Again probably a wobble but last couple frames of radar show a nnw motion, looks almost enough to get it to 34N...
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Just to add to this and I know this isn't the most accurate way to do this but I used the distance measure on radar scope from center at beginning of loop (20 frames) to the KMHX radar site and it was 87 miles at the end of the run around 77....
 
BHS1975 said:
Probably just trochoidal movements.


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trochoid |ˈtrōkoid|
adjective
1 Anatomy denoting a joint in which one element rotates on its own axis (e.g., the atlas vertebra).
2 Geometry denoting a curve traced by a point on a radius of a circle rotating along a straight line or another circle (a cycloid, epicycloid, or hypocycloid).
3 Zoology having or denoting a form of mollusk shell that is conical with a flat base, like a top shell.
 
The UNC is postponing classes til Sunday 5:30 pm
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
GFS significantly further SW through 30.
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Actually looks to be just about the same track as it's 12z run just quicker so @30 it looks further SW. This run gets there at 0z Sat, 12z wasn't until 18z Sat

For comparison this is the 18z run @30 (0z Sat)
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_6.png


12z run almost same spot, it is the southern most point, 18z Sat
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_10.png
 
metwannabe said:
Actually looks to be just about the same track as it's 12z run just quicker so @30 it looks further SW. This run gets there at 0z Sat, 12z wasn't until 18z Sat

For comparison this is the 18z run @30 (0z Sat)
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_6.png


12z run almost same spot, it is the southern most point, 18z Sat
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_10.png
Click to expand...

Still looks SW to me. You can toggle the total precip map and see it even better.
 
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