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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

GaWx said:
I'm guessing this is a wobble and that it will resume a WNW motion later this afternoon. Even the Euro doesn't hit its northernmost point til late tonight. However, if she doesn't then the Euro is going to need to start being considered much more heavily instead of being treated as just a left biased outlier
Click to expand...
Some pro mets were already claiming GFS victory this morning not just here but in general and claimed the euro is useless, etc. clearly it’s too early for that. I personally hope the Euro verifies for NC to keep the heavy rain to our south but of course SC and GA would be in trouble. Nobody wins...
 
I mean it’s one thing to call the Euro an outlier if it’s way off base and slowly moves towards all other guidance but that isn’t happening. Sticking to its guns. And looking at this MIMIC loop it appears Florence has slowed to a crawl and there’s not much of a WNW movement happening atm. With that being said, old glory at the Frying Pan is taking a beating right now
 
36-48 hours out and we still don't know if this is going to track just south of NC/SC line or the GA/SC state line, or something in between. Between Euro, UK, FV3 and GFS pretty much every option is covered, there can only be one winner. I am thinking FV3 wins but deep down hard to bet against the Euro. Navgem is probably closest to Euro track.

FloTracks.gif
 
Looking at the 24hr MIMIC loop it does appear Florence is closing in on 34N. Does the latest Euro reach that latitude? I’m torn. This thing could stall out at any moment or it could keep doing what it’s doing
 
The Euro runs have been running a little south of reality and I think are still barely south. However, the projected Euro track for the current time is near 300 degrees/aiming for Topsail even though it never gets there (WNW) and Flo has been moving 280 or an aim toward the NC/SC border. As a result, the Euro is getting close to no longer being south of reality and will get there shortly if a 290-300 direction doesn't resume soon.

Aside: I haven't seen the 12Z NAVGEM yet at Tidbits.
 
Florence (06L)
noaa_logo_30.png

NOAA9 - Miss. #15 - Atlantic
High Density (4), Dropsonde (3)
Geopotential Height: 13,530 meters (44,390 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 169.2 mb
Location: 288 statute miles (463 km) to the SSE (154°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
Florence (06L)
af_logo_30.png

AF306 - Miss. #16 - Atlantic
High Density (7)
Geopotential Height: 4 meters (13 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 1014.2 mb
Location: 9 statute miles (14 km) to the NW (311°) from Savannah, GA, USA.

Looks like 2 recon runs on-going now?
 
GaWx said:
The Euro runs have been running a little south of reality and I think are still barely south. However, the projected Euro track for the current time is near 300 degrees/aiming for Topsail even though it never gets there (WNW) and Flo has been moving 280 or an aim toward the NC/SC border. As a result, the Euro is getting close to no longer being south of reality and will get there shortly if a 290-300 direction doesn't resume soon.

Aside: I haven't seen the 12Z NAVGEM yet at Tidbits.
Click to expand...

Navgem
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_namer&set=All
 
looks pretty close to not moving much, agreed. I still don't see much movement WNW at all. Almost a solid W
 
Latest HRRR brings it on a W to WNW path to near ILM, but starts heading SW before actual landfall....(end of run at that point)
hrrr_mslp_uv850_seus_20.png
 
malak05 said:
Florence (06L)
noaa_logo_30.png

NOAA9 - Miss. #15 - Atlantic
High Density (4), Dropsonde (3)
Geopotential Height: 13,530 meters (44,390 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 169.2 mb
Location: 288 statute miles (463 km) to the SSE (154°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
Florence (06L)
af_logo_30.png

AF306 - Miss. #16 - Atlantic
High Density (7)
Geopotential Height: 4 meters (13 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 1014.2 mb
Location: 9 statute miles (14 km) to the NW (311°) from Savannah, GA, USA.

Looks like 2 recon runs on-going now?
Click to expand...
1 upper level and 1 low level
 
12Z EPS mean is still calling for a S SC hit with a higher % of the members vs the 0Z now staying offshore before coming back into lower SC. Also, there are now very few, if any, landfalls in GA.
 
Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 52s53 seconds ago
It beat the US modeling on Irma going into Cuba. It beat the US modeling on Joaquin turning west then heading out, .Beat the US modeling on Isidore into Yucatan Beat the US modeling on Sandy Well here we go again, Euro vs the US modeling. Can it do it again?
 
Flash flood watch just hoisted here in WNC. Not sure I've ever seen a flash flood watch covering 3 whole days. NWS calling for 6-10 with possibility of 15 inches near escarpment. Northern part of the county here had 5.5 inches of rain the night before last. The ground is full, the amount of gas in the pumps here, however, are not.
 
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