• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Back to 105

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 76.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Looks like it took a step toward Ukie and Euro. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Baby steps lol.... overall imo yes but still basically same landfall area as it previous runs. Funny this run shifts the heaviest precip sw but imby I picked up more on this run, basically because it has a little further north LF then the Euro with an expanding precip shield.
qpf_acc.us_ma.png
 
packfan98 said:
Don’t forget that once inland and after significant weakening, the precipitation shield often get very elongated on the north side of the center with very little in the south and western quadrants. I won’t be surprised to see precip very far to the north of the center of rotation.
Click to expand...
Great point...
 
metwannabe said:
Baby steps lol.... overall imo yes but still basically same landfall area as it previous runs. Funny this run shifts the heaviest precip sw but imby I picked up more on this run, basically because it has a little further north LF then the Euro with an expanding precip shield.
qpf_acc.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
25 miles is going to mean the difference in flooding or a summer time thunderstorm rain
 
packfan98 said:
Don’t forget that once inland and after significant weakening, the precipitation shield often get very elongated on the north side of the center with very little in the south and western quadrants. I won’t be surprised to see precip very far to the north of the center of rotation.
Click to expand...
Exactly. I can’t imagine Central NC not getting dumped on with a weakening TC spinning slowly north of ILM
 
FV3 has been remarkably consistent and takes this along NC/SC line while euro dips it much further south. I’m really curious to see which model wins this battle since there are significant differences.
 
This is the one time, I have ever 100% put myself with the Euro and it's EPS forecast. I know I always try to follow the EPS for snowfall amounts or chances here.. but this is different. I have told people around here, that it's the worst case scenario rain wise for the Midlands... with the secondary Charleston/mid Charleston Myrtle hit and I believe it's a better chance versus other guidance.

If I go down with it,, cool. But the ensembles and the operational for multiple runs now, although vastly different from other guidance, are too locked in for me to think this is coming in around North Myrtle and slightly North of KCAE.
 
packfan98 said:
Don’t forget that once inland and after significant weakening, the precipitation shield often get very elongated on the north side of the center with very little in the south and western quadrants. I won’t be surprised to see precip very far to the north of the center of rotation.
Click to expand...
Yeah the big question mark is how far north the precipitation shield extends away from the center, experience tells me with large scale stratiform it may be more extensive than modeled (as was the case in Matthew and what we see time and time again with winter storms) but the lack of significant troughs interactions with Florence might change that...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the big question mark is how far north the precipitation shield extends away from the center, experience tells me with large scale stratiform it may be more extensive than modeled (as was the case in Matthew and what we see time and time again with winter storms) but the lack of significant troughs interactions with Florence might change that...
Click to expand...

The FV3, HRDPS and RGEM are showing a “firehose” setup like we saw with Matthew but for a much longer duration. The FV3 is showing 24-30 hours of it. Should be interesting to see if it verifies.
 
With the upslope and all in the upstate say like greenville, why is the GFS not picking up on that? The Euro is showing 6-10" in northern upstate but GFS is wY under that.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top