Downeastnc
Member
Will be interesting to see what she does with a new eye...if she bombs back out does she move more west again etc...if she makes it to 73/74 west things could get rough on the OBX.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Erin
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Henry2326
Member
Henry2326
Member
Just found out what this windy app can do. See NHC cone. See the Euro position in comparison to the cone, then see the Icon same.
I won't be surprised to see that cone continuing to move west.
I won't be surprised to see that cone continuing to move west.
That would put the OBX in the tropical wind field for certain. A little nudge further west and it would be experiencing hurricane winds gusts. Erin is going to be a big storm as far as size.
Henry2326
Member
Looks like she's starting back up....
Henry2326
Member
11 am NHC
The track guidance is in good
agreement on the northward turn but there are differences in how
close the hurricane will come to the U.S. east coast in the 72 hour
time frame. The new official forecast has been shifted a little to
the west at 3-4 days based on the model consensus. Some additional adjustments to the forecast are possible in future advisories.
It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.
The track guidance is in good
agreement on the northward turn but there are differences in how
close the hurricane will come to the U.S. east coast in the 72 hour
time frame. The new official forecast has been shifted a little to
the west at 3-4 days based on the model consensus. Some additional adjustments to the forecast are possible in future advisories.
It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Is the GFS an euro really that far apart
Henry2326
Member
The first pic is Euro and the second is GFS. Last is Icon since it's the closest to land and still forecasting 915 pressure for the 4th day.
Answer to question....Yes, considering the risk.
Euro and ICON are aligned.
If they moved the cone so the center was aligned with Euro/ICON, then the cone would be over land. Can't have that since they pronounced the OTS message (sarcasm). What a travesty if it explodes again.
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The Windy app you are using is very interesting. You may have found them another subscriber after I checked out the features online.
Cblake
Member
Somewhat new to tracking the tropics. Does this temporary weakening of Erin make the turn less likely/slower? I know the stronger storms want to gain latitude. Just wondering if this weakening makes in harder for it to turn the corner and shoot the gap in the ridge. Thanks
Brent
Member
Yeah the NHC is gonna move the track inland with these models that have not changed. Like they aren't even that close. They aren't stupid and they have a very stellar forecasting history 99 percent of the time. They also have models we don't see
I have been telling people for days that there has never been one rogue model even show a landfall
I have been telling people for days that there has never been one rogue model even show a landfall
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Henry2326
Member
I don't think there is even a remote chance of a direct hit. Depending how close it gets, the flooding could be huge. I.e. Matthew 2016 and it was cat1. Very possible they will move it closer to shore. At least that's what they said in the last discussion.
But this first one below in pic was 2 days prior to 2024 landfall.....we all know it went east.
The second one is the day before 2022 landfall. We know it hit Ft. Myers instead of Tampa.
So not a fan of taking average of averages, which is what they do.
It takes the thought and responsibility off them.
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Henry2326
Member
5pm
The track guidance is basically unchanged from earlier today, so the new official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.
This remains close to the dynamical model consensus TVCN and is is also similar to the latest FSU Superensemble guidance.
Erin exhibited an eyewall replacement earlier today, with the eye
diameter increasing from 5-10 n mi to around 40 n mi. If the
replacement cycle completes, there should be a contraction of the
eyewall by tonight. This would likely result in another
intensification episode.
TVCN is an average of an average. That's got them in trouble more than once.
The track guidance is basically unchanged from earlier today, so the new official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.
This remains close to the dynamical model consensus TVCN and is is also similar to the latest FSU Superensemble guidance.
Erin exhibited an eyewall replacement earlier today, with the eye
diameter increasing from 5-10 n mi to around 40 n mi. If the
replacement cycle completes, there should be a contraction of the
eyewall by tonight. This would likely result in another
intensification episode.
TVCN is an average of an average. That's got them in trouble more than once.
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Henry2326
Member
Unlikely that it will miss the escape route. But coast of NC could feel tropical storm effects or even hurricane winds from the outer bands.
Henry2326
Member
Damn....someone has some sense.....thank goodness
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Shaggy
Member
More like you can stand on the beach and see the sound out there. Just not a lot of land and there is always bad overwash that destroys the roads in and out.