Brent
Member
Theo from the Cosby Show just a few weeks ago in Costa Rica
Big dude... Didn't matter. He was gone just like that
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Tropical Major Hurricane Erin
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Theo from the Cosby Show just a few weeks ago in Costa Rica
Big dude... Didn't matter. He was gone just like that
snowlover91
Member
Also worth noting, every single model tracked on this chart has been too far east/northeast even inside 48-72 hours.
Inside 72 hours, the UK has been king and Euro a close second. Unfortunately icon isn’t tracked on here.
Inside 72 hours, the UK has been king and Euro a close second. Unfortunately icon isn’t tracked on here.
This is absolutely ridiculous and unnecessary. I know you can't "force" people to stay out of the water, but 50 rescues?!? Fifty??? Something needs to be done. I just don't know what.
Brent
Member
I get it but people don't care that's the problem
Or don't think it will happen to them because last time didn't do anything(this was a big problem in the Texas flood and why it was so bad that whole area has flooded many times)
It basically goes back to the overall issue of the government telling them what to do if you push it too much
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Shaggy
Member
She looks beat.up this morning. Hopefully she stays that way as she passes by the obx
Henry2326
Member
Icon placed it and held position way ahead of any others. UK caught up first. The rest (just shaking my head).
Brent
Member
Really falling apart on satellite. Recon obs are downright pathetic too
I'm still hearing a lot of talk about another peak once it starts moving faster though
I'm still hearing a lot of talk about another peak once it starts moving faster though
Gonna set the over/under at .5 beach houses washed into the ocean in Rodanthe
Mahomeless
Member
Recon missions were also cloud seeding 
I see why. The Euro restrengthens her a lot.
Also, I just noticed this on the 0Z UKMET: it initialized it at 943 as of 8PM EDT last evening, then weakened it all the way down to 963 as of 12Z/8AM EDT this morning, and then restrengthens her starting today all the way down to 928 mb Thursday at 8PM EDT:
HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 71.5W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2025 0 23.9N 71.5W 943 84
1200UTC 19.08.2025 12 25.2N 72.6W 963 75
0000UTC 20.08.2025 24 26.9N 73.1W 953 79
1200UTC 20.08.2025 36 28.9N 74.3W 942 89
0000UTC 21.08.2025 48 31.6N 74.3W 936 100
1200UTC 21.08.2025 60 34.0N 73.3W 935 96
0000UTC 22.08.2025 72 36.2N 70.8W 928 94
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lexxnchloe
Member
6Z EURO edged east. Erin needs to regain its NW half for anything on the coast to happen.
It may restrengthen like the models show but right now it's ingested some dry air and they usually have a hard time fully recovering from that, this late in the game. Should eventually lead to that large eye though, we shall see
Tbf you can do that with any nor'easter down there. Most of those houses that we will hear about "washed away by powerful extreme hurricane Erin", are vacant, condemned and already sitting in the edge of the ocean
Down to 105/961. Also NC Outer Banks TS watches upgraded to a warning and the southern Virginia coast is now under a TS watch.
This is solely the choice of local leadership. Public safety closures of beaches happened every year a decade ago. Now local leaders are so afraid of offending businesses they fail at the very first part of their job which is “public safety.” A social contract is just that, a contract. The government is bound by statute to rescue you from drowning or locate your body if they can’t and they’re entitled to tell you it’s too dangerous for your own good to be out there.
This is Darwin's Law of Natural Selection at work again. I can't believe any rational mind would go into the ocean in conditions like those occurring along the beaches now, especially after so many warnings from public officials and the media not to enter the water. George Carlin was right when he asked us to think about how stupid the average person is and then realize that 50% of the population is more stupid than that.
The NHS has nudged Erin's predicted path ever so slightly east in its latest advisory. Now Erin according to the NHS does not get to 74W longitude in the latest forecast track.
It's also no longer forecast to regain major status
lexxnchloe
Member
At least it got us all excited yesterday. East and weaker today.
Downeastnc
Member
Which means she will get to cat 4 by tonight lol
lexxnchloe
Member
12Z UKMET: like the 0Z this run restrengthens Erin to a peak Thu evening off NC, but by not as much as it gets down to 947 vs 928 on the 0Z:
HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 72.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2025 0 25.3N 72.1W 961 79
0000UTC 20.08.2025 12 27.0N 73.1W 960 71
1200UTC 20.08.2025 24 29.0N 73.8W 954 83
0000UTC 21.08.2025 36 31.7N 74.0W 950 84
1200UTC 21.08.2025 48 34.1N 73.1W 949 81
0000UTC 22.08.2025 60 36.1N 70.7W 947 76
HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 72.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.08.2025 0 25.3N 72.1W 961 79
0000UTC 20.08.2025 12 27.0N 73.1W 960 71
1200UTC 20.08.2025 24 29.0N 73.8W 954 83
0000UTC 21.08.2025 36 31.7N 74.0W 950 84
1200UTC 21.08.2025 48 34.1N 73.1W 949 81
0000UTC 22.08.2025 60 36.1N 70.7W 947 76
Erin gaining organization after ingesting some shear and dry air.
Henry2326
Member
12z Icon says she will come alive again to her former self, beginning tonight.....nudging back and forth over the past 3 forecast.
Henry2326
Member
Actually she might....lol......
NHC said at 11am
Predicting Erin's intensity is somewhat problematic. Given the
current disorganization of the cloud pattern, one would be reluctant
to call for restrengthening. However,the dynamical guidance shows
increasingly anticyclonic upper-level flow over the system and the
SHIPS model diagnoses a significant decrease in vertical wind shear.
Probably going to start putting itself together overnight as the shear continues to lessen, you can already see the CDO expanding back to the NW. By tomorrow afternoon into the evening the northern outflow will likely get connected to some jet help off of the SE Canada coast. With the overall size of the storm and this morning's disruption I'm not sure how rapidly we will see wind respond to a pressure drop.
Looking better for sure
Shaggy
Member
Shaggy
Member
These videos were filmed at Crystal pier and oceanic restaurant. People never listen. The first video doesn't seem too crazy but this video shows how big even the white wash is. These people were knocked off their feet and sent the lifeguards into action
Edited to add the video of when the lifeguards had to get involved
Edited to add the video of when the lifeguards had to get involved
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Nice beach sounds but yeah, idk about getting in the water at all (even knee deep) if I were there, even without context.
My clumsy self probably gets knocked over in about 5 minutes.
Henry2326
Member
NHC 5pm
Since the shear over Erin appears to have lessened, and the system
will continue to traverse warm waters for the next couple of days,
some re-strengthening could occur. The future intensity is
dependent on whether the inner-core eyewall structure becomes
re-established. The official forecast conservatively shows a
slight increase in intensity similar to the model consensus but the
LGEM guidance shows a little more strengthening than that.
Since the shear over Erin appears to have lessened, and the system
will continue to traverse warm waters for the next couple of days,
some re-strengthening could occur. The future intensity is
dependent on whether the inner-core eyewall structure becomes
re-established. The official forecast conservatively shows a
slight increase in intensity similar to the model consensus but the
LGEM guidance shows a little more strengthening than that.
Not strengthening yet
Shaggy
Member
Yeah the white wash was strong and not to be played with. It was running up into the dunes at high tide in places there. Could easily sweep someone off their feet.
Some pretty high winds far from the center though.
That is a mess.
Flo
Member
I hope lifeguards aren’t expected to risk their lives to go save idiots who choose to swim in those waters.
From the 11pm disco
It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely
underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because
the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average
compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability
product.
It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely
underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because
the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average
compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability
product.