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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

GaWx said:
Models are pretty much unanimous on a track toward western LA and then moving NNE from there for a good 200 miles or so. Rarely does such model agreement occur.

Based on analogs and what the storm is now doing, I'm quite concerned that there will be a cat 3 H hit on LA despite the cooler shelf waters.
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81 F still plenty warm.


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Based on analogs, how healthy the storm appears, and the near ideal conditions projected for the next 36 hours, I'm growing more and more concerned that there will be a cat 4 offshore and a subsequent 950-955ish mb cat 3 landfall on LA despite the cooler shelf waters.

Here are the analogs that are mainly from the same time of year (early Oct thus meaning very likely similarly cooler shelf waters) and mainly peaked in the N Gulf as a cat 4 in some cases after rapid intensification. In 4 of the 6 cases, landfall was in LA. In all but one case, ENSO is similar to today's. In 4 of the 6 cases, it had crossed or was just offshore the Yucatan:

1. Opal of 1995: in early Oct and came off Yucatan. It went from a TS to a 916 mb cat 4 in the N Gulf within only 48 hours! It then weakened but still landfalled as a cat 3 in the FL Panhandle.

2. Carmen of 1974: Only one not in Oct. Like Delta, it was very powerful before major weakening on the Yucatan as it weakened to only a TS. But soon after, he went from a TS to cat 4 H within only 48 hours just S of LA with SLP down into the 930s! He then turned left/weakened slightly and landfalled in LA as a cat 3 I think.

3. Hilda of 1964: in early October in the C GOM south of LA went from a TS to a cat 4 941 mb H (150 mph winds) within only a 36 hour period. She made landfall in LA as a cat 3 with 950 mb SLP.

4. 1893 storm #10: Even though it was early Oct., it rapidly strengthened into a 948 mb cat 4 in the shelf waters just off SE LA and it made landfall in SE LA as a cat 4.

5. 1886 storm #10: after crossing the corner of the Yucatan, it at about the same time in Oct became a cat 3 only within 100 miles offshore LA and made landfall in W LA with ~120 mph winds. Lowest pressure was 955 mb, which I assume was onshore.

6. 1877 storm # 4: only one with different ENSO (El Nino). After the center barely missed the Yucatan, it strengthened into a 960 mb cat 3 just offshore Apalachicola on October 2 and then came ashore as a cat 3.
 
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Back to Cat 2

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected
to become a major hurricane again by tonight or early Friday.
 
Arcc said:
Definitely looks like a strengthening phase is beginning with strong convective banding around the center.
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Agreed. Also looks like (see what next data set from recon shows) but a nice jog northward as well
 
I bought a handheld anemometer/barometer/thermometer from Amazon right after Laura, so maybe I'll get to post actual wind obs from my location in Baton Rouge for this storm. This looks to be tracking a similar path to Laura, just a few clicks further east, so closer to me this time. I'll try to keep everyone updated as I'm able to.
 
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT DELTA HAS
STRENGTHENED...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 92.7W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from
High Island to Sabine Pass.

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from High
Island to Sabine Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi
 
The big question is does Delta go for a Laura v. 20 or does it veer NE just before landfall. It would make a difference for populated areas like Lafayette and Baton Rouge. The ridge currently holding Delta on the NW heading should weaken this evening and tonight, allowing for the curve north, then northeast. How fast the ridge weakens is going to be key.
 
I totally forgot the Lake Charles radar is still down how lovely(it was basically destroyed in Laura's eyewall)

Beyond today, the latest forecast track from NHC for Delta has
shifted a little farther to the west and is a little slower, with
the hurricane now expected to make landfall near Creole late
tomorrow afternoon or early evening, roughly 13 miles or so east
of where Laura came ashore on Aug 27. Sigh.
 
I hate to wish this storm on anybody, but why can't the storm veer NE just before landfall to spare Lake Charles another direct hit? I'd be glad to take one for the team if someone had to.
 
Brent said:
I totally forgot the Lake Charles radar is still down how lovely(it was basically destroyed in Laura's eyewall)

Beyond today, the latest forecast track from NHC for Delta has
shifted a little farther to the west and is a little slower, with
the hurricane now expected to make landfall near Creole late
tomorrow afternoon or early evening, roughly 13 miles or so east
of where Laura came ashore on Aug 27. Sigh.
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Heard on TWC that they were going to send down a dopplar on wheels from Oklahoma so they could have some radar coverage in that area.
 
Will Rossman said:
I hate to wish this storm on anybody, but why can't the storm veer NE just before landfall to spare Lake Charles another direct hit? I'd be glad to take one for the team if someone had to.
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Instead of wishing the storm on anyone. why not just wish it to weaken? That would truly be something that would be a net benefit to your fellow Louisianans. I'm sure most in your area do not want any part of this. So, there's nothing noble about wishing it to you area. Of course, the wishing has no impact, regardless. But if you somehow had the power, why not just have it weaken?
 
StormStalker said:
Heard on TWC that they were going to send down a dopplar on wheels from Oklahoma so they could have some radar coverage in that area.
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Hopefully that's gonna suck regardless I wasn't even thinking about that til I tried to load it on radarscope
 
GaWx said:
Instead of wishing the storm on anyone. why not just wish it to weaken? That would truly be something that would be a net benefit to your fellow Louisianans. I'm sure most in your area do not want any part of this. So, there's nothing noble about wishing it to you area. Of course, the wishing has no impact, regardless. But if you somehow had the power, why not just have it weaken?
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Well said. It's like seeing a car veering toward a crowd of people and hoping it misses those people and hoping maybe you take the hit. Why should anybody have to? Why can't the car screech to a stop in time? A weak storm would be nice to track without lives and property threatened.
 
God please let the euro be right we need rain
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Massive pressure drop on the first pass from the AF plane. Last pass from the prior plane had a drop of 967 mb and this pass has extrapolated down at around 955 mb. In addition, the SW eyewall winds have picked up.

And the pass completed and FL winds in the NE quad are at a solid cat 4 intensity of around 120 knots.
 
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